4 May Pandemicia coronavirus report #18
 |
| Burleigh Heads restrictions released (note - these all appear to be practising social distancing) |
Epidemic
Countries
I hate to say it but things are about to get very nasty out there. To quote WHO, the worst is yet to come. This is going to be worse than Spanish Flu, it is going to be just awful.
I was very positive for a while after ANZ managed to beat the epidemic, while nothing much seemed to be happening in the developing countries. But the truth is, to stop it requires fast action or big resources that will help only if you are lucky and determined. If you are poor in resources, determination or medical support, you have no chance. Just keeping a lockdown going in countries where most of the employment is informal is putting the lives of everyone at risk.
Here is my list of countries by status, depending on whether they may eliminate the virus:
WINNERS
China and neighbours, ANZ, Balkan stretch from Czechia to Cyprus, Scandinavia except Sweden, many islands.
Perhaps Swiss, Baltic States, Lebanon and Syria
LOSERS
Everyone else
The first discussions of a COVID bubble world in which the successful countries are able to exchange personnel have begun.
In the early weeks of the outbreak to April 4, the US recorded 15,400 excess deaths - about two times those attributed to COVID. So not only cases, but the death rate is a considerable understatement. Even so, more Americans have already been killed by COVID-19 (59,000) than in the Vietnam War.
Frostbite-like patches on younger people's toes are turning out to be an indication of COVID infection. The second week is always the most terrible time for infection.
There are still 29,000 new cases per day in the USA. Deaths have been falling since the 29 April high, as the greater New York pandemic settles down.
The West Coast may be able to squash the epidemic - but it is hard to know how they might keep it that way. Local quarantines have only worked with severe lockdowns.
I was very positive for a while after ANZ managed to beat the epidemic, while nothing much seemed to be happening in the developing countries. But the truth is, to stop it requires fast action or big resources that will help only if you are lucky and determined. If you are poor in resources, determination or medical support, you have no chance. Just keeping a lockdown going in countries where most of the employment is informal is putting the lives of everyone at risk.
Here is my list of countries by status, depending on whether they may eliminate the virus:
WINNERS
China and neighbours, ANZ, Balkan stretch from Czechia to Cyprus, Scandinavia except Sweden, many islands.
Perhaps Swiss, Baltic States, Lebanon and Syria
LOSERS
Everyone else
The first discussions of a COVID bubble world in which the successful countries are able to exchange personnel have begun.
Other
More than one million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have recovered worldwide.In the early weeks of the outbreak to April 4, the US recorded 15,400 excess deaths - about two times those attributed to COVID. So not only cases, but the death rate is a considerable understatement. Even so, more Americans have already been killed by COVID-19 (59,000) than in the Vietnam War.
 |
| Cases USA 3 May |
There are still 29,000 new cases per day in the USA. Deaths have been falling since the 29 April high, as the greater New York pandemic settles down.
The West Coast may be able to squash the epidemic - but it is hard to know how they might keep it that way. Local quarantines have only worked with severe lockdowns.
Response
Spy agencies confirmed in support of the medical profession that COVID-19 could not have been manufactured. The true source remains open. Scientists are overwhelmingly sceptical of the lab-escape theory. Based on the experience of other countries, it is unlikely the wet market cluster in Wuhan was the original source - it had probably been round for more than a month.
India, always tech-savvy, has ordered a Bluetooth/GPS tracing app for all employees - 83 million have already downloaded it.
People are setting fire to cell-towers across Europe, because they believe a false conspiracy theory that 5G mobile networks spread the virus.
In a surprise "emergency use"approval, the US FDA approved the use of antiviral Remdesvir for critical COVID patients, though test results are ambiguous so far.
Protests are ramping up against quarantine in the USA, generally supported by the President, and a number of other states are now relaxing controls while the USA is very far from quelling the current epidemic. However the new controls generally require social distancing, and it might be enough.
People are now dining out in Georgia, Tennessee and Alaska, sometimes with gloved waiters and disposable menus. Michigan and California have extended restrictions for another month. The US Senate will return to work today.
The search for a vaccine takes on critical significance if the US epidemic does continue upward. Scientists involved in previous projects worry about the safety risks inherent in skipping so many steps. The last time the United States tried to rush a vaccine was under President Gerald Ford in 1976. It was a total fiasco.
Although new case numbers in Australia are low, a meatworks in Victoria has turned up nineteen cases. A dozen large beef, pork and chicken processing facilities in North America were closed several weeks ago after cases were detected
People are setting fire to cell-towers across Europe, because they believe a false conspiracy theory that 5G mobile networks spread the virus.
In a surprise "emergency use"approval, the US FDA approved the use of antiviral Remdesvir for critical COVID patients, though test results are ambiguous so far.
Protests are ramping up against quarantine in the USA, generally supported by the President, and a number of other states are now relaxing controls while the USA is very far from quelling the current epidemic. However the new controls generally require social distancing, and it might be enough.
People are now dining out in Georgia, Tennessee and Alaska, sometimes with gloved waiters and disposable menus. Michigan and California have extended restrictions for another month. The US Senate will return to work today.
The search for a vaccine takes on critical significance if the US epidemic does continue upward. Scientists involved in previous projects worry about the safety risks inherent in skipping so many steps. The last time the United States tried to rush a vaccine was under President Gerald Ford in 1976. It was a total fiasco.
Australia
Australia is the most successful Western country to weather the coronavirus crisis. With only a L3 lockdown (people able to go out without harassment, most businesses staying open) it has been able almost to eliminate the virus - daily cases have been less than 20 since April 20. The damage to the economy is expected to be about a quarter of the L4 lockdown cost across Europe, North America and in NZ. National Radio the ABC has continued to maintain the best COVID coverage, along with the Department of Health.Although new case numbers in Australia are low, a meatworks in Victoria has turned up nineteen cases. A dozen large beef, pork and chicken processing facilities in North America were closed several weeks ago after cases were detected
In Queensland, thousands of people crammed onto beaches, walking tracks, parks and picnic spots in the first few days of release. Citizens who had been locked up for weeks visited their favourite locations en masse. Police issued 140 fines of $1334 for breaches.
Beaches are a 'COVID petri dish' according to some. In Australia, the iconic Bondi Beach was closed on 21 March after distancing rules were flouted, but has now re-opened for swimmers and surfers. Beachgoers have been flocking to California beaches over the past week as the weather warmed, prompting the closure of Orange County beaches. In Spain, a mile of beach was cleaned using bleach.
The Australian government has a campaign running to get everyone to download the Bluetooth Covidsafe app onto their mobile phones, saying they will not relax restrictions until a sufficient number have done so. Over 2 million have downloaded the app.
Beaches are a 'COVID petri dish' according to some. In Australia, the iconic Bondi Beach was closed on 21 March after distancing rules were flouted, but has now re-opened for swimmers and surfers. Beachgoers have been flocking to California beaches over the past week as the weather warmed, prompting the closure of Orange County beaches. In Spain, a mile of beach was cleaned using bleach.
The Australian government has a campaign running to get everyone to download the Bluetooth Covidsafe app onto their mobile phones, saying they will not relax restrictions until a sufficient number have done so. Over 2 million have downloaded the app.
Geopolitical
Brazil is a country of great inequality - some parts are like a Western country while others are like the poorest countries in Africa. It has done well over much of the last fifteen years because of mineral exports. As in other countries with global reach, COVID-19 began quite early in Brazil, reaching 100 confirmed cases on 14 March. Six weeks later there are over 100,000 cases and 7,000 deaths. It looks as if it may have reached inflection.
The Amazon tribes are under considerable threat as there is little medical support in the rainforest. A group of high-profile celebrities have urged the far-right Brazilian President to take action.
The Amazon tribes are under considerable threat as there is little medical support in the rainforest. A group of high-profile celebrities have urged the far-right Brazilian President to take action.
Economy
More than 100,000 Kiwis have taken up the option to stop repaying their loan principal.
300,000 temporary visa holders have left Australia and another 160,000 permanent immigrants will not be coming. This constant influx of population has been regarded as underpinning Australia's extraordinarily expensive house prices, the highest in the world after Hong Kong.
Those economies that depend on tourism will be extremely hard hit by the pandemic. Recovery in southern Europe following the 2008 crisis was largely due to tourism. Tourism is 13 to 20 per cent of the economy in the larger European countries. Tourism revenues fell by 95% in Italy and 77% in Spain in March. Funds from Europe’s vast economic stimulus packages may be used to haul hotels, restaurants and tour operators back from collapse. The government of Sicily is already offering to pay half the airfare and 30% of the hotel bill for anyone making bookings later in the year.
Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon and the world's richest man, announced that Amazon would spend the entirety of its second quarter $4 billion profit. As the go-to online provider, Amazon's stocks have soured by
Warren Buffett, the world's most respected value investor, sold all his shares in four big airlines at a loss, saying their time was over. Berkshire-Hathaway are sitting on a huge cash pool. "We do not know what happens when you voluntarily shut down a large part of your society".
The White House and Congress are clashing over liability protections for workers if their employers expose them to coronavirus. Republicans want complete shielding for employers.
Aggressive intervention stopped a housing crisis in the USA during April, but a surge in evictions and foreclosures is anticipated as May rent and mortgage payments come due.
In Australia the National Bank issued an early dividend, dropping it by two-thirds., while another major bank, ANZ, declined to give a dividend at all, setting aside $1b for losses. Many retirees are dependent on bank dividends.
300,000 temporary visa holders have left Australia and another 160,000 permanent immigrants will not be coming. This constant influx of population has been regarded as underpinning Australia's extraordinarily expensive house prices, the highest in the world after Hong Kong.
Those economies that depend on tourism will be extremely hard hit by the pandemic. Recovery in southern Europe following the 2008 crisis was largely due to tourism. Tourism is 13 to 20 per cent of the economy in the larger European countries. Tourism revenues fell by 95% in Italy and 77% in Spain in March. Funds from Europe’s vast economic stimulus packages may be used to haul hotels, restaurants and tour operators back from collapse. The government of Sicily is already offering to pay half the airfare and 30% of the hotel bill for anyone making bookings later in the year.
Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon and the world's richest man, announced that Amazon would spend the entirety of its second quarter $4 billion profit. As the go-to online provider, Amazon's stocks have soured by
Warren Buffett, the world's most respected value investor, sold all his shares in four big airlines at a loss, saying their time was over. Berkshire-Hathaway are sitting on a huge cash pool. "We do not know what happens when you voluntarily shut down a large part of your society".
The White House and Congress are clashing over liability protections for workers if their employers expose them to coronavirus. Republicans want complete shielding for employers.
Aggressive intervention stopped a housing crisis in the USA during April, but a surge in evictions and foreclosures is anticipated as May rent and mortgage payments come due.
In Australia the National Bank issued an early dividend, dropping it by two-thirds., while another major bank, ANZ, declined to give a dividend at all, setting aside $1b for losses. Many retirees are dependent on bank dividends.
Environment
Pangolin poaching is generally regarded as lower risk than hunting elephants or rhinoceroses, as well as being taken less seriously by the authorities, and so ivory traders are beginning to flock to the trade.
The animal's supposed connection to coronavirus may make consumers less prone to eat it and poachers more wary about catching it.
End of days
 |
| Flamingoes Mumbai, encouraged by lack of human activity |
Hello Joe. Are you Tom's brother?
ReplyDeleteInteresting and very informed reflections on the pandemic here. I saw you posted the link in the Australia Institute webinare talk by Peter Doherty today.
Take care,
Michael Fine, Woy Woy