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| The Next Pandemic |
Pandemicia coronavirus report #71
We have not made a post in four months. The eponymous Johns Hopkins world dashboard discontinued on 10 March 2023 after three years, encouraging us at Pandemicia to do the same. The Our World in Data and various government websites continue to show ongoing results.
We at Pandemicia and many of our friends in their 70s have managed to avoid the virus so far by obeying directives and doing what the government and statistics spent years teaching us - avoid crowded situations where people can breathe on you, wear masks if you have to approach someone, maintain distance from critical workers who have to visit a lot of people, stay away from groups of young people etc. Other people of working age we know who because of their life situation have not been able to maintain social distancing, have had the disease up to four times.
Global report
Confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally are rising at about 10 million a month and totalling 675 million, and deaths are about 90,000 a month, or 0.9% - still a high case mortality rate, though cases are increasingly under-reported. The centres of infection continue to be Japan, Taiwan, Eastern USA, SW Brazil and Western Europe.
The strong correlation between level of development and cases continues. Although it has not been discussed much in the literature, this must surely be due to interior air quality/ air conditioning. The Japanese outbreak is just finishing. In the major Western European countries, cases have fallen to about 100,000 a month in total. China claims to have overcome its outbreak.
The USA has had more than 1.1 million deaths. They did not come in "under the curve" below 200,000 deaths, as President Trump predicted.
The USA has had more than 1.1 million deaths. They did not come in "under the curve" below 200,000 deaths, as President Trump predicted.
In Australia, cases have been slowly rising to 28,000 a week, and scripts are rising for oral treatment - 7000 a week for over-65s, and 3200 for age 15-65s. About 1500 are in hospital, also rising. Deaths are now very low at 35 a week.
Response
The disease has not turned out to be a really big killer as everyone originally thought, though the relatives and friends of 6 million dead may feel otherwise. It has something like a 0.3% mortality rate - which is higher than other respiratory diseases, but not a major killer like the earlier coronaviruses SARS-1 or MERS.
Initially, a few countries decided to do nothing. At the other extreme, a few countries closed tight and stayed closed until the virus was temporarily eliminated The mainstream "vaccine" strategy was eventually almost universally adopted - keep the pressure off hospitals until everyone was vaccinated, then open up to the disease.
Political
While one might have hoped the pandemic would provide good practice in handling future outbreaks of more serious diseases, one is reluctant to say this has been the case. Very few countries stopped the disease, and the ones that did eventually gave up after running out of funds and encountering population resistance. A considerable part of the population has lost confidence not just in the ability of governments to plan and act in their interest, but also, more seriously, in the medical establishment and "science".
Currently, a large number of private post-mortems are under way accusing governments of being heavy handed and undemocratic in instituting lockdowns, mandating vaccines, masks and other disease protocols. In most countries (except the USA where a strong anti-government undercurrent has existed since the 1700s), the population was initially compliant. The impression has been that the failures of policy during the pandemic may have actually weakened future responses to disease, at least as far as the public and government are concerned.
The vaccine strategy proved particularly easy to undermine. Large "anti-vaxxer" movements expanded in most Western countries, accusing governments of colluding with big business to produce super profits, while extremists having a heyday claiming the vaccine was more dangerous than the disease. Sceptical alt-right sites gained million of adherents, while compliant sites such as Pandemicia, which aimed to analyse the success of planning policy, received almost no attention - since it was felt the mainstream media were already handling this role.
No alternatives to the "it came from China" origin theory emerged, although this was not at all certain. The blame-China approach was generally coupled with criticism of China's success in countering the disease and providing most of the early analysis - not helped by the authoritarian attitude of the CCP (as the authorities came to be known). The pandemic finally began to crystallise opposition to China as an emerging major power.
Economic
The disruption to supply chains, limitations on population movement and the loss of enterprises under pandemic restrictions eventually led to labour shortages and inflation around 8% at the end of 2022, against which central banks have responded by increasing interest rates.
Rising interest rates are beginning to put pressure on house purchasers, many of whom took out large loans at extremely low interest rates, Pressure has also been placed on rents as landlords attempt to recoup extra costs, because of the very low construction rates during the pandemic, and a generally superheated housing market.
Australia, with its very high housing prices and economic dependence on shorter-term immigrants, is particularly vulnerable. Rental vacancy rates are about 1% and markets are likely to tighten further. Private rents in Sydney for newly let properties have risen 37% since the start of 2020, Rents have risen about 20% in London, and rents in the USA rose by 17% in 2022, mostly because of sudden pressure from household formation by young singles and young families.
Rising interest rates are beginning to put pressure on house purchasers, many of whom took out large loans at extremely low interest rates, Pressure has also been placed on rents as landlords attempt to recoup extra costs, because of the very low construction rates during the pandemic, and a generally superheated housing market.
Australia, with its very high housing prices and economic dependence on shorter-term immigrants, is particularly vulnerable. Rental vacancy rates are about 1% and markets are likely to tighten further. Private rents in Sydney for newly let properties have risen 37% since the start of 2020, Rents have risen about 20% in London, and rents in the USA rose by 17% in 2022, mostly because of sudden pressure from household formation by young singles and young families.
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