Pandemicia coronavirus report #70

Waiting for PCR tests, China

Pandemicia coronavirus report #70

We are keeping these reports down to two-monthly as news has mostly evaporated, even though cases and deaths from Covid, in Australia at least, are at much higher levels than during the panic phase of 2020-21.  

Epidemic

Global report

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally are 645 million, and deaths 6.6 million. Apart from the major outbreaks in January and July this year, when countries relaxed surveillance, global confirmed cases have been running fairly steadily since the end of 2020, though deaths have fallen from 100,000 a week down to 9,000 a week from May.  

Japan has a substantial third major outbreak, with 2.5 million cases in the last month, 10% of its all-time total. South Korea has 1.5 million cases in the month. Although both have more official cases than stalwarts USA, France, Italy and Germany, all of whom have in the vicinity of a million cases a month, deaths are considerably lower, The Western countries and Brazil have over 2000 deaths a month while Korea has 1350.

In Australia, the outbreak promised for December has manifested in a limited way. Cases have risen from 32,000 a week to 90,000 a week, making it the 10th country in the world in gross cases and fourth after New Zealand, France and Greece in cases per million. Deaths are running at about 120 per week, about the same as at the Sep 20 and Oct 21 peaks. 

Deaths

Despite vaccinations and use of antivirals, mortality rates from Covid-19 for over-70s and vulnerable groups are running at about three times the level of influenza mortality rates.

In the USA, the disease now mostly affects old people, with 90% of deaths now aged over 65. Deaths of blacks were once over 60% higher, due to ill-health among black people, but now the mortality rate  is about the same for white and black. This is because whites became more reluctant to be vaccinated.

  

A second major outbreak in China has been accompanied by far fewer deaths than in the first in March. Only 350 deaths have been recorded over the month.

China weekly cases and deaths

Large demonstrations against lockdowns have been held in major Chinese cities over the last week. Major Chinese cities have been lifting lockdowns over the past few days, with State media saying "Covid is weakening".  They are saying that Omicron is "weaker" (than the delta variant, which is true). China appears to be dropping its zero-covid policy. Many PCR testing stations have closed.

Triple epidemic

One of the benefits of lockdowns and social distancing during 2020-21 was that cases and deaths from other respiratory diseases fell to almost nothing. With society re-opened, cases of influenza and respiratory synctial virus (RSV) have jumped to record levels. Hospitals are now under severe pressure from this "triple epidemic"

RSV is little-known but it causes 100,000 infant deaths and about 20,000 deaths of older adults annually. About 2% of healthy babies are hospitalised with RSV every year. Hospitalisation rates are currently seven times higher than normal.
 

Response

The antiviral Paxlovid produces a 50% drop in hospitalisations when used in the first five days, but in the USA only 28% of those eligible received it. 

Monoclonal antibodies designed to provide immunity to earlier versions of Covid are ineffective and are no longer available in the USA. 

Many suffering from "long covid" have turned to costly and unproven treatments, such as "blood washing", stem cells, hyperbaric oxygen and "nutraceuticals".

Over 200,000 articles on Covid-19 have been published since the outbreak began, but many of the most important features of the disease remain elusive, such as how it mutates so often, where it came from, how do you catch it and why does it kill only some people.

Economic

Working from home. In Australia home work rose from 6% pre-pandemic to 24% in 2021. Of these, only a fifth reported positive effects in 2020. Women appreciate home work much more than men. A major downside is that promotion prospects are very much lower.

In 2020 COVID-19 emergency accommodation programs achieved sudden reductions in rough sleeping in cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. But these gains were only temporary. Pressure on regional markets has caused rents to rise much faster than inflation, and regional homelessness case numbers have risen by 13% over 4 years. The percentage increase has been very much higher in Queensland and WA. A much higher number are citing housing affordability stress as the cause. 

Political

Former Australian Prime Minister Morrison responded to a motion of censure against his secretly adopting multiple ministerial powers in a speech on 30 November, stating (correctly) that if other countries had all adopted the  policies of Australia, there would have been no ongoing pandemic. However, as only three significant countries did this (Australia, New Zealand and China), the chances of stopping any future pandemic by similar means seems slight.