10 April. Pandemicia Coronavirus daily report #7
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| London Underground March 16 |
About a third of the US deaths have been in New York, which at 87,000 has more confirmed cases than any single country. The various strains have been identified by phylogeny as being mostly from Europe. It appears New York passed the inflection point some time ago, and hospital admissions have actually flatlined. Deaths continue to rise and may not stabilize till the end of April. The official death toll in New York has not been counting people who died outside of hospital – a further 280 per day. Prison inmates are donning protective gear as they dig mass graves in the Bronx.
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| NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA, ACT, Tas |
It is just terrible what is happening in the USA. Chicago, LA and other major cities are still moving upward. It's going to rage for months. I do not see the US coming in under a million cases and 32,000 deaths, though the 200,000 predicted for Trump is a fiction. The early San Francisco lockdown seems to have worked and conditions are manageable there with only 720 total cases - it is all in the timing. The only states that will escape are Hawaii and Alaska. [Note 10 May, already has nearly 80,000 deaths, passed 32000 on 17 April, passed the million cases on 29 April with no end in sight. A lot more than 200,00 deaths is now likely]
No love in a time of COVID
By comparison Australia has brought its epidemic very much under control. The country continues with its extreme lockdown, although new cases have fallen under 100
per day and evidence is mounting that "Level 3 lockdowns" are unnecessary. In the best Australian tradition, different States have different rules. In most places you cannot travel to a holiday residence over Easter, but in Victoria it is permitted if you own them both.
Visiting a non-resident partner is permitted in Victoria but not in NSW. In Western Australia one may do so but must
maintain social distancing in each others’ presence. Yes really. WA also has
the heaviest penalties of up to $50,000 for flouting ‘social distancing’ rules.
Hospitalisations are much lower than expected
The ABC has been maintaining a database of all Australian cases. Their data are showing first that there was never a real epidemic except in NSW (the one caused by the Ruby Princess incident). From the chart at the right, only NSW shows the typical peaked epidemic format of new cases, while the other States correspond to single cases and their contacts being picked up.
Also, the proportion of hospitalisations in Australia is much lower than we have been led to believe. Chinese data showed 21% severe cases, but in NSW there have been only 6% hospitalisations and 2% ICU. These ratios have been higher in other States, who have mostly quarantined inbound travellers
The hospitalisation rate implies an ultimate mortality rate of well under 1% in NSW. Given that the lockdown and general scare will also control influenza, it is probable Australia will have fewer pulmonary deaths than usual this season.
Response
US labs that underwent huge efforts to retool for COVID-19 testing still aren’t operating at full capacity, and are 'spinning their wheels'. The lack of a national strategy is to blame. They have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system. Some labs say some say they’re performing at half capacity or less because of supply shortages or because hospitals won't send them samples. “We can give results in 12 hours". In California, clinics were turning away offers of assistance from certified labs because they used different software or didn't have contracts. “There is a misconception that you only need a PCR machine and a PhD — that is 10% of what you need,” [Subsequently, testing capacity was stepped up. On 10 April 2.5 million tests had been done at a rate of 150,000 a day. By 7 May 8.1 million tests were done at 250,000 per day]
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