14 April Pandemicia coronavirus report #10
 |
| Coyote in San Francisco green space |
The slow-responders are nearing the ‘herd immunity’ point
dictated by standard epidemiology models. It is rarely admitted, but the real purpose
of lockdown under the ‘flattening the curve’ strategy is to keep young potential ‘superspreaders’
at home and prevent them from infecting others. Once most of the population is
infected however, general lockdown is pointless and the aim should be to
protect the vulnerable members of the community. This requires a very different
set of actions and priorities.
Epidemic by country
USA
Extensive testing in the USA has revealed that up to 20% of the population are infected, and more than 40% in the heavily-infected areas, which have probably
reached ‘herd immunity’ levels. This is also true of most of Europe.
Washington State had the earliest outbreak in the USA. About 100 Inmates at Monroe Correctional Complex staged a protest in response to other prisoners testing positive for COVID-19. Six people in the Minimum Security Unit have tested positive for the virus and have been isolated.
Washington State had the earliest outbreak in the USA. About 100 Inmates at Monroe Correctional Complex staged a protest in response to other prisoners testing positive for COVID-19. Six people in the Minimum Security Unit have tested positive for the virus and have been isolated.
A mass walkout of press occurred in the daily White House briefing,
when President Trump began to show a video purporting to show he ‘acted
promptly’. A former New York Times executive described the video as “one of the
most astonishing acts of disinformation from the White House since the Vietnam
Era.”
Europe
The economy of the United Kingdom, already damaged by Brexit, is estimated by the Office of Budget Responsibility to fall by 35% in the second quarter, with unemployment of two million.As elsewhere, an extra 15% should be added to official death figures in Britain because they only include deaths in hospital, not in nursing homes or at home.
Austria is one of the few European countries to control the epidemic. Today it
re-opened shops while maintaining strict social distancing rules.
Although Germany was one of the first places in Europe to register infections and its case numbers are high, this is probably due to its extensive
testing program, as deaths are very low. With new cases down to 2200 per day from
a high of 7200, it has definitely ‘flattened the curve’, although there is no chance
it will eliminate the disease.
Sweden has kept its bars
and businesses open throughout the emergency. Its COVID performance is actually as good as most of its neighbours – with only 365 deaths and cases at 500 per day. This
may support the notion there is no point in closing the doors after the bug
has bolted - except to prevent overloading of the hospital system.
Finland has actually done the best of the Scandinavian
countries and with less than 100 cases a day can probably aim for COVID extinction if it chooses.
Asia
Most of the new cases in China are now actually illegal border
crossings from Russia. Authorities are clamping the border down.
Japan is funding its firms to migrate business out of China, as an anti globalisation move.
Japan is funding its firms to migrate business out of China, as an anti globalisation move.
India has extended its lockdown for another 10 weeks, but there are grave fears a famine could result, with crops not planted or harvested and so many dependent on daily labour.
Australia
Australia has tested about 1.5% of the population. The highest number of infections is among young women aged 20-29 – a sociable
and well-travelled group. Case mortality is running at about 0.7%, the lowest in the world.
As elsewhere, males over 70 have the highest mortality rate.
With new cases so low, the Grattan Institute is now calling for total extinction of COVID-19. The government has followed New Zealand in saying it is a possibility. In fact it should not be difficult at all from this point, though it will leave Australia isolated from its allies.
Western Australian figures confirm what cruise ship data
have shown – a very large reservoir of symptomless or mild COVID cases. Of the
527 confirmed cases in WA, only 32 people or 6% are hospitalised, with
12 in intensive care. At least 80% of WA’s cases were overseas-acquired. WA has
signalled it may lift lockdown on May 1 – against the advice of the COVID warrior Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who anticipates extended restrictions.
Australian economy
New South Wales announced that renters could negotiate with
landlords to delay rent payments – though this may lead many renters into extensive
debt.
The advocacy group Getup, normally at loggerheads with the conservative
government, has taken the unusual step of strongly supporting the decisive
actions of the Prime Minister who “doubled unemployment benefits, provided
substantial wage subsidies for many workers, funded free childcare, and put in
place protections for tenants.“ They are campaigning in the unlikely hope
that these generous benefits may continue post-COVID.
Police response
Victorian police have been heavy-handed in issuing social distancing fines (not unusual). A 17 year old L-plater was fined for taking driving lessons with her mother. A couple from Victoria’s east were fined $1652 each after one of them shared images of a previous holiday on Facebook. A doctor was fined for going paddle-boarding off a Melbourne beach during the Easter weekend. It is understood these fines have been dropped.Vaccines
The development of new vaccines (which traditionally takes up to ten years) is being fast-tracked in China by immediate testing on young human volunteers rather than animals. Nevertheless, the testing of vaccines for side effects and efficacy is a slow process that may take several years. Most vaccines are rejected in these tests.Crime
With everyone sheltering at home, crime rates have fallen
substantially around the world – but online fraud has increased.
Planet Strikes Back
<Return to Index>
Comments
Post a Comment