20 April Pandemicia coronavirus report #13
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| Lights still on in Times Square |
Epidemic
Worldwide, daily new cases have stabilised for the last 3 weeks. However, daily deaths continue to rise by about 7% a day. As deaths lag infections by 9-10 days, what this means is that the number of 'new cases' is not measuring new cases at all, but is counting the number of kits per day that are available. It appears therefore that current global manufacturing capacity has been reached, about 80,000 per day.
This is unfortunate as it means 'number of new cases' is no longer useful information except in those places where it is rising or falling. All we really know is that 10 days ago, despite the global lockdown, the true number of new cases was still rising fairly fast at about 7% per day, compounded, or doubling every 10 days.
This is unfortunate as it means 'number of new cases' is no longer useful information except in those places where it is rising or falling. All we really know is that 10 days ago, despite the global lockdown, the true number of new cases was still rising fairly fast at about 7% per day, compounded, or doubling every 10 days.
Revised modelling has estimated the number of eventual dead in the USA to be 60,000 (with a worst case of 125,000) - considerably lower than the original estimates. The lower number would equate to about 10 million infected, a fairly low number in a country of 350 million.
Another, secondary outbreak may be occurring in Henan province in China, with a fresh cluster of cases among medical staff. Lockdown has been instituted. With the 'traditional' methods that are being used everywhere to control the disease, these "bubbles" will probably emerge for a long time.
A heavy testing program is revealing very few new cases in Australia. However the government and medical authorities refuse to countenance that extinction is even possible, let alone imminent. Unlike other countries, there appears to be a dominant vested interest in keeping a heavy lockdown in place - possibly waiting till the population agrees to community tracing as a tradeoff. NZ will lower its Level 4 restrictions next week.
A significant number of 'recovered' patients in Korea have been found infected. It is possible the infection is being sustained in the gut or elsewhere, and is re-emerging.
Another, secondary outbreak may be occurring in Henan province in China, with a fresh cluster of cases among medical staff. Lockdown has been instituted. With the 'traditional' methods that are being used everywhere to control the disease, these "bubbles" will probably emerge for a long time.
A heavy testing program is revealing very few new cases in Australia. However the government and medical authorities refuse to countenance that extinction is even possible, let alone imminent. Unlike other countries, there appears to be a dominant vested interest in keeping a heavy lockdown in place - possibly waiting till the population agrees to community tracing as a tradeoff. NZ will lower its Level 4 restrictions next week.
A significant number of 'recovered' patients in Korea have been found infected. It is possible the infection is being sustained in the gut or elsewhere, and is re-emerging.
Geopolitical
Crises tend to accentuate any problems that already exist and make them more obvious. The lack of social cohesiveness and trust in government in the USA is manifesting as dissent and conspiracy theories, rather than the nation unifying around a shared goal.
Right-wing attacks against China are intensifying, with more and more countries joining the clamour for 'greater clarity' with no particular articulation of what this would involve or why it would be useful. In our opinion this finger-pointing merely deflects attention away from finding solutions to the many problems besetting the COVID response, since China probably has little more to add.
Right-wing attacks against China are intensifying, with more and more countries joining the clamour for 'greater clarity' with no particular articulation of what this would involve or why it would be useful. In our opinion this finger-pointing merely deflects attention away from finding solutions to the many problems besetting the COVID response, since China probably has little more to add.
Response
New Zealand will reduce lockdown from Level 4 to Level 3 on April 27. This means that non-essential businesses that do not require face-to-face contact can open, doubling the number of employees at work. There is concern New Zealand cannot match Australia in contact tracing in the event of a new outbreak.
The difference between a Level 3 and a Level 4 lockdown is explained here.
British mortuaries will be expanded by 30,000 spaces.
Medical budget
The ethical and health economics questions surrounding COVID are huge, and we have so far not ventured there, nor into straight clinical areas where others are much better qualified and better informed. However, with the whole medical budget now devoted to coronavirus, examples are cropping up of people who died with other complaints because health budget was no longer there for them.
Responses to shocks of any kind however soon create their own problems. Initially the system is overwhelmed and the logistical and conceptual system that supplies and organises it is barely functioning, with everyone's responsibilities elsewhere.
Then the overkill phase clicks in. As everything cranks up to speed, whole other areas that were ticking along quite well are suddenly starved of resources to deal with the new problem in force. In Britain, some large hospitals have been 'hoarding beds', sitting empty waiting for an avalanche of COVID patients that has not come. Less urgent medical screening programmes have been closed down. This is an inevitable aftershock of the complete lack of readiness
Care/nursing homes are particularly under-resourced. Most of the seriously ill are elderly, with average age of COVID mortality around 80, and these homes are the perfect place for fatalities. There has been an order in many countries to push patients back to nursing homes as fast as possible, where there is no specialised care for them nor even personal protection equipment for the staff. It is not surprising that around half of all COVID deaths in the heavily affected countries are in nursing homes.
Economy and society
Estimates are ongoing as to the potential economic damage from coronavirus lockdown. In Australia the jobless rate jumped 3% in the first few days after lockdown (to 8%). Grattan Institute estimates unemployment will be 14-26%, with half of all hospitality workers losing their jobs, and people in the arts, retail, sports and other activities requiring personal contact also heavily affected.
Economic closures have moved beyond frontline recreation and hospitality areas to manufacturing, with "the biggest factory closure since WWII" in North America and Europe. As in wartime, automotive and other factories have closed and re-tooled.
European economies were already not in good shape, battered by the impact of Trump’s trade wars and tariffs on supply chains and a slump in business investment. Europe’s industrial giant, Germany, was teetering on the edge of recession before the coronavirus crisis hit. U.S. manufacturers saw their production contract by 0.2% in 2019.
China’s manufacturing output fell 15.7% in January and February from a year earlier, according to official data earlier this week. The result is that China is now expected to record its slowest growth since 1976. In Germany, car companies are expected to shut down for about two weeks.
In an odd twist in this carbon-rich world, the USA is running out of carbon dioxide, which is essential for water treatment, and is also used in soda and beer. This is due to a ramping-down of ethanol production, which has CO2 as a byproduct. An oversupply of cheap petrol from abroad from Saudi Arabia and Russia, at a time when petrol demand has fallen, has been accompanied by a reduction in the requirement to include ethanol in locally produced gasoline. Some 34 of the 45 ethanol plants in the USA have closed or reduced production.
Many businesses are finding ways to repurpose. Specialised shields for retail operatives and hairdressers are now installed in many establishments. Publicans are bottling their beer kegs, which are no longer required for draught beer or for events, and delivering the bottles to homes.
The adoption of new remote technology has been rapidly accelerated in areas as diverse as medical appointments and cattle auctions. Live bidders are now only a trickle at stockyards, and sellers and spectators are not permitted to attend.
In medicine, the Australian government has agreed to pay for online consultations for anyone, not just permanent residents. In China videoconferencing is almost the only way to see a doctor.
Sir Richard Branson has offered his Caribbean island retreat as collateral for a government-approved bailout of Virgin Airlines.
It is feared that the traditional travel of Indonesians to their home cities during Ramadan starting this week will spread coronavirus to rural areas. In Britain, Moslems are sharing Ramadan during the pandemic using online platforms.
Church services, choirs and bridge groups are meeting through zoom-type applications.
Economic closures have moved beyond frontline recreation and hospitality areas to manufacturing, with "the biggest factory closure since WWII" in North America and Europe. As in wartime, automotive and other factories have closed and re-tooled.
European economies were already not in good shape, battered by the impact of Trump’s trade wars and tariffs on supply chains and a slump in business investment. Europe’s industrial giant, Germany, was teetering on the edge of recession before the coronavirus crisis hit. U.S. manufacturers saw their production contract by 0.2% in 2019.
China’s manufacturing output fell 15.7% in January and February from a year earlier, according to official data earlier this week. The result is that China is now expected to record its slowest growth since 1976. In Germany, car companies are expected to shut down for about two weeks.
In an odd twist in this carbon-rich world, the USA is running out of carbon dioxide, which is essential for water treatment, and is also used in soda and beer. This is due to a ramping-down of ethanol production, which has CO2 as a byproduct. An oversupply of cheap petrol from abroad from Saudi Arabia and Russia, at a time when petrol demand has fallen, has been accompanied by a reduction in the requirement to include ethanol in locally produced gasoline. Some 34 of the 45 ethanol plants in the USA have closed or reduced production.
Many businesses are finding ways to repurpose. Specialised shields for retail operatives and hairdressers are now installed in many establishments. Publicans are bottling their beer kegs, which are no longer required for draught beer or for events, and delivering the bottles to homes.
The adoption of new remote technology has been rapidly accelerated in areas as diverse as medical appointments and cattle auctions. Live bidders are now only a trickle at stockyards, and sellers and spectators are not permitted to attend.
In medicine, the Australian government has agreed to pay for online consultations for anyone, not just permanent residents. In China videoconferencing is almost the only way to see a doctor.
Sir Richard Branson has offered his Caribbean island retreat as collateral for a government-approved bailout of Virgin Airlines.
It is feared that the traditional travel of Indonesians to their home cities during Ramadan starting this week will spread coronavirus to rural areas. In Britain, Moslems are sharing Ramadan during the pandemic using online platforms.
Church services, choirs and bridge groups are meeting through zoom-type applications.
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