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Epidemic
Coronavirus deaths in England and Wales are about 40% higher than official figures, according to their Office for National Statistics. COVID was mentioned in a third of all death certificates in the week to April 19, and a half of those in London.
Commentators are now agreeing with us that cases were expanding undetected in Europe through January. One man is Sussex, England was infected at the Austrian ski resort superspreader coverup, gave it to his family and then it spread rapidly through the area.
This is the trouble with COVID and why it is hard to track and stop. One or two superspreader events among international travellers, followed by a better than 25% per day expansion while everyone thinks it's a cold - and cases are at epidemic proportion in a few weeks, before someone gets pneumonia and it is detected. It doesn't take a model to see what can happen.
Commentators are now agreeing with us that cases were expanding undetected in Europe through January. One man is Sussex, England was infected at the Austrian ski resort superspreader coverup, gave it to his family and then it spread rapidly through the area.
This is the trouble with COVID and why it is hard to track and stop. One or two superspreader events among international travellers, followed by a better than 25% per day expansion while everyone thinks it's a cold - and cases are at epidemic proportion in a few weeks, before someone gets pneumonia and it is detected. It doesn't take a model to see what can happen.
Geopolitical
Dissent is stepping up in countries that are already disaffected. People in Lebanon are protesting about government corruption and inefficiency from their cars! The poverty rate in Lebanon has gone up from about 35% to more than 50% - before COVID hit.
Four horsemen
The UN World Food Programme has warned of an impending famine 'of Biblical proportions'. The other horsemen (natural disaster and war) have so far not been sighted.
Response
A $480 billion initiative to aid American small business has passed through the Senate.
Britain is shaping up to be the most incompetent country of all with its original 'herd immunity strategy'. This happened partly because following BREXIT the new government had no time to settle in. The tone has completely changed since the hospitalisation of Boris Johnson and other cabinet members. Britain is pinning its hopes on a vaccine effort, which some say has 'little chance of success' as it is not an established vaccine platform.
Netherlands and France will-re-open primary schools in May. Their Infectious Disease Control Institutes have found the risk to be 'manageable'.
Take it for the Team award
Today goes to Texas Lt-Governor Dan Patrick, who said, "There are more important things than living", suggesting grandparents like him were ready to do what it takes to keep the country open. "Man we gotta take some risks and get back in the game."
Economy
Global oil prices went negative for the first time in history (some sellers were prepared to pay to have their excess stock removed). Liquid gold: Australia is using the situation and $94m to set up a Strategic Oil Reserve - located in the USA!
Retail figures in Australia show firstly an all time record leap of 8% for the month.
What we'd do if we all stayed home: The types of goods bought have changed drastically: travel, entertainment, restaurants and gyms have fallen by 50%, while food delivery, apps/games and the eternal solaces tobacco, alcohol and gambling have risen. Vegetable spending is well up while fruit spending is down (seasonal, and no cut lunches I guess).
while
Retail figures in Australia show firstly an all time record leap of 8% for the month.
What we'd do if we all stayed home: The types of goods bought have changed drastically: travel, entertainment, restaurants and gyms have fallen by 50%, while food delivery, apps/games and the eternal solaces tobacco, alcohol and gambling have risen. Vegetable spending is well up while fruit spending is down (seasonal, and no cut lunches I guess).
while
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