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| The real coronavirus is much less attractive than artist's interpretations |
25 April Pandemicia coronavirus report #15
Epidemic
As anticipated, the epidemic is now moving with some rapidity into middle-income countries. Turkey has passed 100,000 cases but the inflection point has been reached. Russia may be peaking but Ukraine and Belorussia are not. Brazil and Peru look fairly ugly and India and Bangladesh are headed for true disasters. The head of the WHO says the worst is still to come.
Russia has about 5000 cases a day, it is not clear if it has reached inflection. The first doctor has died - he was treating patients at a veteran's hospital. Deaths are still low but they will come in a week.
The USA had a new high in confirmed cases yesterday. Pandemicia is not prepared to call a top (and we called the top in Australia to the day) - there are counter indications in the data.
The Swedish laissez-faire experiment has not worked - it is the only country in Europe (excluding the former USSR) where the infection has not peaked.
Iceland is enjoying the advantage of being an island - cases are down to single figures.
Singapore is not: it started well but an outbreak occurred among migrant workers who live in overcrowded hostels, and by 1 April a full-on epidemic started. It looks as if it has hit inflection (maximum daily cases) as has the UK at last.
The first serological (antibody) tests have been coming through. A Stanford study estimated 45 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases in Santa Clara county were infected (but symptomless). This would put the true mortality rate down to only 0.2%. Pandemicia has estimated 0.7% elsewhere. These ratios are extremely important for working out where the disease is going and what the response should be.
Total worldwide terrorist incident deaths in last 50 years is 400,000. Total COVID deaths in last 3 months is 200,000.
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| Russian cases |
Russia has about 5000 cases a day, it is not clear if it has reached inflection. The first doctor has died - he was treating patients at a veteran's hospital. Deaths are still low but they will come in a week.
The USA had a new high in confirmed cases yesterday. Pandemicia is not prepared to call a top (and we called the top in Australia to the day) - there are counter indications in the data.
The Swedish laissez-faire experiment has not worked - it is the only country in Europe (excluding the former USSR) where the infection has not peaked.
Iceland is enjoying the advantage of being an island - cases are down to single figures.
Singapore is not: it started well but an outbreak occurred among migrant workers who live in overcrowded hostels, and by 1 April a full-on epidemic started. It looks as if it has hit inflection (maximum daily cases) as has the UK at last.
The first serological (antibody) tests have been coming through. A Stanford study estimated 45 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases in Santa Clara county were infected (but symptomless). This would put the true mortality rate down to only 0.2%. Pandemicia has estimated 0.7% elsewhere. These ratios are extremely important for working out where the disease is going and what the response should be.
Total worldwide terrorist incident deaths in last 50 years is 400,000. Total COVID deaths in last 3 months is 200,000.
Geopolitical
Speaking at the first hearing of a Senate inquiry into COVID-19 in Canberra, Australia's Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy raised hopes that Australians may be able to holiday in New Zealand in the future, even if the borders remain closed to the United States and Europe for much longer. This supports our contention that the countries of the world might divide up in a different way following the pandemic.
Response
It is not clear why most of America opted for a Level 4 lockdown in the first place ("stay at home"). Other countries started with minor restrictions and increased as necessary. Australia has had a L3 lockdown (many workplaces open but no groups or recreational activities) for most of it, and Korea has had L2 (almost all business open, large gatherings prohibited, social distancing).
Half a dozen Republican states will be dropping back to something like L3 on Monday. Opinion is heavily divided as to whether this is appropriate at the height of an epidemic, and still possibly over a month away from suppression. It certainly does give the impression there was no original plan. Many states are talking about inadequate testing although 5 million tests have been delivered.
Reports are emerging that grocery businesses are concealing cases among staff so they will not be closed, disinfected etc. Some hospitals in New York have threatened to fire staff if they talk to media about poor working conditions.
Economy
13000 tourism workers in New Zealand will be laid off as a result of lockdown. Areas that depend heavily on tourism will be subject to recession.
Boeing in Seattle shut down on March 25 after workers tested positive for the virus and an inspector for the company died. It re-opened on Monday, providing 27.000 jobs. Workers will wear face masks.
Deflation is underway in Australia for the first time since 1962.
In Australian universities, government assistance has only been offered to local students, and international students will be sent home. Education is Australia's third largest export earner at $22b, a larger industry than tourism ($15b). Universities will be struggling. International students are stranded cashless, and some have been evicted from share houses. One kind couple has been home cooking meals for 200 students. There is a danger that students will not return and will choose to be educated in their home countries.
In Australian universities, government assistance has only been offered to local students, and international students will be sent home. Education is Australia's third largest export earner at $22b, a larger industry than tourism ($15b). Universities will be struggling. International students are stranded cashless, and some have been evicted from share houses. One kind couple has been home cooking meals for 200 students. There is a danger that students will not return and will choose to be educated in their home countries.
World strikes back
Milan, Italy has announced an ambitious plan to reduce automobile usage after the epidemic is over. There will be a large expansion of cycling and walking space. The area is one of Europe's most polluted.Without the distraction of constant visitors, a pair of giant pandas in Hong Kong finally decided to give mating a go after a decade of dodging the issue.
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