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| Market, Malmo Sweden, |
28 April Pandemicia coronavirus report #16
Epidemic
The world passed 3 million confirmed cases and the USA 1 million. Europe has over 120,000 deaths and North America about half of that.
Americans are talking about 'a second wave later in the year' but in fact the first wave is far from over as the epidemic rolls across the country. (we have estimated at least another month)
One would eventually expect about 40,000 deaths in Sweden at a 1% case mortality rate - but based on the age of the population, 100,000 seems like a possibility. As well, the economy has not been spared: Sweden has 11% unemployment.
“It’s good to trust people to think for themselves ... but it’s impossible to accept that so many elderly people have died in such a rich country”, said one Stockholm grandmother practising social distancing.
A few cases have been found of human-to-animal transfer of SARS-2 in felines and minks.
Americans are talking about 'a second wave later in the year' but in fact the first wave is far from over as the epidemic rolls across the country. (we have estimated at least another month)
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| Sweden new cases- note Monday reporting peaks |
Sweden, which has a 'Level 1 Lockdown', is saying they will 'reach herd immunity' in May. This is correct. Stockholm has an alleged 30% of the population infected. More than half of the 2270 deaths so far have been in retirement homes. By comparison, neighbours Finland and Denmark, which taken together have a similar population, have had a total of 620 deaths.
One would eventually expect about 40,000 deaths in Sweden at a 1% case mortality rate - but based on the age of the population, 100,000 seems like a possibility. As well, the economy has not been spared: Sweden has 11% unemployment.
“It’s good to trust people to think for themselves ... but it’s impossible to accept that so many elderly people have died in such a rich country”, said one Stockholm grandmother practising social distancing.
Co-factors
Further analysis of air pollution as a co-factor has been undertaken, suggesting a small increase in pollution can result in a 15% increase in deaths.A few cases have been found of human-to-animal transfer of SARS-2 in felines and minks.
Geopolitical
The different approaches taken by the governments of the world are a considerable challenge to democracy, in that the affected populations have had little say in the tactics employed. Given that this is the first "pandemic that could have been stopped". The world will look with considerable concern and interest at the Swedish and US cases. Do democratically elected governments have the right to sacrifice a proportion of their population? In wartime they have done this, mostly their young men, but now for the first time it is the old who will go.
Response
We are surprised that Israel was not able to suppress the virus but ANZ were. Israel acted promptly and forcibly, declaring a global pandemic on 4 March when it only had 15 cases, blocking immigrants from Europe and Asia and quarantining over 50,000 people. At that time Italians were still saying there was no real problem. Israel hit inflection on 2 April and is only now nearing suppression levels (less than 100 cases a day).
Australia and other countries are testing sewage for SARS-CoV-2. It is suspected but not confirmed that the virus can survive in the gut for weeks after a patient is clear. Dead RNA fragments have been found in sewage, at a level corresponding to the epidemic size.
Economy
Treasury and IMF spokespersons have been assuring their countries that their economies are fundamentally sound and there will be a V-shaped rebound. However critics differ, stating "a precarious, debt-reliant economy, with more than a decade of stagnant productivity, and frozen or falling incomes for most of its inhabitants, is not fundamentally sound". This is unfortunately true of all the Western economies.
The international bank HSBC has paused plans (announced in February) to shelve 35, 000 jobs. British banks have suspended dividend payments and management bonuses.
First analyses of globalisation and how it has been impacted by the epidemic are appearing. We will add to these shortly.
Some governments have been using the crisis to roll back environmental protections. The EPA in the USA will give waivers to restrictions while re-establishing the economy.
The international bank HSBC has paused plans (announced in February) to shelve 35, 000 jobs. British banks have suspended dividend payments and management bonuses.
First analyses of globalisation and how it has been impacted by the epidemic are appearing. We will add to these shortly.
Some governments have been using the crisis to roll back environmental protections. The EPA in the USA will give waivers to restrictions while re-establishing the economy.
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