5 April Pandemicia Coronavirus Report #5
The pattern recognition call from our 1 April press
release announced that Australia had 'flattened the curve'. This
has proved to be absolutely correct. The ABC are now running a 'Curvewatch'
segment and are continuing to talk about 'encouraging signs'. Similar to the
'encouraging signs' that there is a nose on your face.
Observers
are attributing the drop-off in Coronavirus cases to the limiting of
international movement. If this were the whole story - and I do not necessarily
accept that it is - then the immensely expensive lockdowns we are all enduring
would be unnecessary and a considerable over-reaction.
We
share the credit for being the first Western nation to 'flatten the curve' with
Austria, with whom it is rare that we share anything except mail misdirection.
Austria’s distinction is that it has mandated masks in grocery stores. We also
share the credit for arresting the epidemic with China and South Korea, who have adopted different strategies.
Hooray
for Oz! This good result does not mean that lockdown should be discontinued as
it may be needed to limit further outbreaks. However, higher levels of lockdown
are not needed.
News summary
Spain has finally passed Italy in cases. It will take a few days to pass it in deaths.
The USA will have the highest number of deaths when numbers of infected reach about 500,000 which will occur around the middle of next week. There is no sign of new cases steadying or slowing.
Because of the shortage of equipment, some city managers have been forced to service their need on the black market (which has been operating to the public for over a month, through Amazon and other platforms).
Demand for masks at one New York hospital, for example, rose from 10,000 to 300,000 masks a week. The major manufacturer 3M has ramped up production of N95 masks to a billion per year. Doctors at some hospitals are reporting being told not to wear N95 masks — because then everyone on the staff would want one. President Trump is trying to keep 3M masks in America. He announced several days ago that black marketeers will be suppressed and false claims will be stopped.
New Zealand passed 1000 cases; however new cases have been steady at 100 or less for ten days, which means the pandemic is controlled. Japan however has a new significant outbreak, which means keeping cases at a low level for an extended period is not enough (the rally has clearly been building up for an advance for a fortnight).
Level 3 style (max 2 persons) lockdowns have led to criminalisation of relationships between people who don't live together -and visits of independent children to their parents.
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The USA will have the highest number of deaths when numbers of infected reach about 500,000 which will occur around the middle of next week. There is no sign of new cases steadying or slowing.
Because of the shortage of equipment, some city managers have been forced to service their need on the black market (which has been operating to the public for over a month, through Amazon and other platforms).
Demand for masks at one New York hospital, for example, rose from 10,000 to 300,000 masks a week. The major manufacturer 3M has ramped up production of N95 masks to a billion per year. Doctors at some hospitals are reporting being told not to wear N95 masks — because then everyone on the staff would want one. President Trump is trying to keep 3M masks in America. He announced several days ago that black marketeers will be suppressed and false claims will be stopped.
New Zealand passed 1000 cases; however new cases have been steady at 100 or less for ten days, which means the pandemic is controlled. Japan however has a new significant outbreak, which means keeping cases at a low level for an extended period is not enough (the rally has clearly been building up for an advance for a fortnight).
Level 3 style (max 2 persons) lockdowns have led to criminalisation of relationships between people who don't live together -and visits of independent children to their parents.
Low case mortality rate in Germany
Germany has an extremely low case mortality rate (0.8%) which is being attributed to widespread testing and double the number of intensive care beds to Italy. However, even South Korea, which has a much younger population and brought the disease under control with very widespread testing, has had a death rate of 1.8%. This appears to be a good practice. It is expected the death rate will increase as the pandemic progresses.
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