PANDEMIC TOPS OUT - FOR NOW
By 6 April, the COVID-19 global pandemic has essentially topped out. At this stage, all countries in which significant numbers of deaths are occurring appear to have passed their inflection point (when confirmed daily new cases reached a maximum). The inflection point kicked in typically five days after a lockdown or social distancing, which everywhere stopped the exponential growth in new infections and in most cases produced a sudden drop and stabilization followed by a fall.
Middle income countries Russia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico and Egypt have yet to show an inflection, while the USA, Canada and Britain are tentative. In any case, the post-mortem can begin.
Here is a table showing the date when the inflection point was reached, the new cases per day, the deaths and the total cases at that date.
Country
|
Date
|
Daily cases
|
Deaths
|
Total Cases
|
China
|
13-Feb
|
7300
|
1368
|
59900
|
South Korea
|
3-Mar
|
654
|
28
|
15800
|
Italy
|
21-Mar
|
6000
|
4032
|
49500
|
Australia
|
22-Mar
|
324
|
7
|
9100
|
Switzerland
|
23-Mar
|
1300
|
60
|
8800
|
Spain
|
25-Mar
|
8600
|
2696
|
52800
|
Austria
|
26-Mar
|
784
|
34
|
53600
|
Germany
|
27-Mar
|
6700
|
253
|
7400
|
Netherlands
|
27-Mar
|
1200
|
434
|
6900
|
Belgium
|
28-Mar
|
1800
|
289
|
38700
|
Iran
|
30-Mar
|
3200
|
2640
|
4300
|
France
|
31-Mar
|
7700
|
3024
|
6900
|
Portugal
|
31-Mar
|
1000
|
266
|
50900
|
Brazil
|
31-Mar
|
1167
|
159
|
8600
|
Philippines
|
31-Mar
|
530
|
88
|
4900
|
Sweden
|
1-Apr
|
590
|
373
|
4300
|
Israel
|
2-Apr
|
750
|
44
|
41500
|
United Kingdom
|
3-Apr
|
6000
|
2921
|
30200
|
Ireland
|
3-Apr
|
424
|
120
|
4300
|
USA
|
4-Apr
|
30775
|
10993
|
308900
|
Denmark
|
4-Apr
|
360
|
161
|
4300
|
Canada
|
5-Apr
|
2800
|
323
|
15800
|
New confirmed cases will necessarily continue for some weeks at a decreasing level, soon falling below 100 per day except in the largest countries, and the deaths will go on for several months. We can expect sudden outbreaks in a few countries not on the list, and in some that are.
.
These are countries of very different sizes, so we have calculated a few coefficients.
| Country | r'/r (1) | r/p (2) | d/r (3) |
| China | 0.12 | 42.0 | 2.3% |
| S Korea | 0.13 | 101.6 | 0.5% |
| Italy | 0.24 | 419.1 | 15.9% |
| Australia | 0.10 | 136.5 | 0.2% |
| Switzerland | 0.15 | 1035.3 | 0.7% |
| Spain | 0.34 | 548.2 | 10.5% |
| Austria | 0.11 | 775.3 | 0.5% |
| Germany | 0.13 | 612.5 | 0.5% |
| Netherlands | 0.17 | 54.2 | 6.3% |
| Belgium | 0.20 | 791.3 | 3.2% |
| Iran | 0.08 | 507.3 | 6.4% |
| France | 0.15 | 812.3 | 5.7% |
| Portugal | 0.14 | 718.4 | 3.6% |
| Brazil | 0.20 | 27.2 | 2.8% |
| Philippines | 0.25 | 19.7 | 4.2% |
| Sweden | 0.12 | 490.0 | 7.6% |
| Israel | 0.08 | 1071.4 | 0.5% |
| United Kingdom | 0.16 | 576.8 | 7.5% |
| Ireland | 0.10 | 895.8 | 2.8% |
| USA | 0.10 | 944.4 | 3.6% |
| Denmark | 0.08 | 741.4 | 3.7% |
| Canada | 0.18 | 425.9 | 2.0% |
The first column (1) is the ratio between new cases and total cases.This is how fast the epidemic was growing per day when it was arrested. For example, in Italy confirmed cases were growing at 24% per day and in Spain at 34%, so it is fortunate the brakes were applied.
The second column (2) is the confirmed cases per million population at the inflection point. Confirmed cases depend on the testing regimen, in some places they are only the serious cases, in others such as South Korea, testing has been carried out widely. In no cases has it been found that a significant proportion of the population was infected - one person in a thousand was about the maximum. Therefore lockdown was conducted in order to prevent that one person in a thousand from infecting anyone.
It does imply that only a tiny number have so far been infected, even in Italy, and there is a very large potential for the rest of the population to pick up COVID-19 in outbreaks in future years. 'Herd immunity' is far from reached - and far from desirable in a first-round epidemic.
When antibody tests are done, it may be found that a higher proportion have had the disease.
The third column (3) is the fatality rate of confirmed cases at the peak (deaths per case). It ranges from nearly 16% in Italy down to 0.5% in Australia. As discussed in the Death Rate post, it depends as much on testing strategy as on other factors. In some cases it will fall as more people are tested, in others it will rise as cases progress.
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The second column (2) is the confirmed cases per million population at the inflection point. Confirmed cases depend on the testing regimen, in some places they are only the serious cases, in others such as South Korea, testing has been carried out widely. In no cases has it been found that a significant proportion of the population was infected - one person in a thousand was about the maximum. Therefore lockdown was conducted in order to prevent that one person in a thousand from infecting anyone.
It does imply that only a tiny number have so far been infected, even in Italy, and there is a very large potential for the rest of the population to pick up COVID-19 in outbreaks in future years. 'Herd immunity' is far from reached - and far from desirable in a first-round epidemic.
When antibody tests are done, it may be found that a higher proportion have had the disease.
The third column (3) is the fatality rate of confirmed cases at the peak (deaths per case). It ranges from nearly 16% in Italy down to 0.5% in Australia. As discussed in the Death Rate post, it depends as much on testing strategy as on other factors. In some cases it will fall as more people are tested, in others it will rise as cases progress.
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