THE DATA PROBLEM
Bad tests and no tests
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| Trump launches the Abbott Laboratories 5 minute test |
What's wrong with the tests?
Before 2003 CoVs were not even on the radar screen of most clinical virology laboratories. SARS-1 has arguably been the most significant event in medical virology since the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome in the early 1980s.
Two things. First there aren't enough of the tests, or anywhere near, and second they are bad.
South Korea showed that if you were ready for a pandemic, and could produce enough tests tout de suite, then you were much of the way towards a solution.
That tests exist at all is something of a marvel of modern medical science. How can you possibly pick one bug out of the thousands you might have?
Two kinds of tests were actually developed following SARS-1, and used in the 2015 MERS epidemic:
- Molecular tests, which look for evidence of active infection; and
- Serology tests, which look for previous infection by detecting antibodies to CoV. These are already available
Antibody test for COVID-19
Clearly in the current emergency we are more interested in tests for active infection: later on we might have the luxury of investigating who got it - though according to [1] it is important for policy
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| Antibody test for COVID-19 |
The better molecular test is the Real-time reverse- transcription polymerase chain reaction - similar to a standard DNA test. By 2005 these had been created for SARS-1.[2]
[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-test/12109946
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1867551/
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