1 May Pandemicia coronavirus report #17
Epidemic
Russia and Brazil are really starting to get out of control.
India and Pakistan as well, but they are a little later.
The United Kingdom is about to become the European leader in
deaths. It was the one to originally come up with the notorious “flattening the curve”
scenario, apparently not realising it meant deaths well into the six figures,
and without taking much notice of the information the Chinese had provided. It
only backed down after Boris Johnson went to hospital – but by then it was much
too late.
Western countries are simply not equipped to deal with this
volume of bodies. People have not been dying very much these days, and it has
only taken a ‘small’ rise in the death rate, say back to 1960s level, for it
all to get out of control. The USA, Brazil, England and Iran have resorted to digging mass graves.
In New York, the death rate has increased by a
factor of four. One Brooklyn funeral parlour filled its refrigerated truck
out the front of the premises, then began to stack and unrefrigerated U-Haul rental truck with
more stacked bodies. U-Haul has given them a lifetime ban.
One in six nursing homes in the USA is now reporting infections among patients and staff. In New Jersey, 80% of homes are reporting infections.
The loss of life will devastate the national psyche for
generations to come in Italy, Spain,
Britain and the USA.
Coronavirus is estimated to keep spreading for two more years until 60-70% of the population is reached (this depends on what quarantine measures are in place).
The virus hits institutional environment heavily, and prisons are one of the worst - with maybe 15 prisoners in a communal dorm. Rikers Island in New York is one of the largest facilities in the world and had 200 cases by 1 April, while Cook County Jail in Chicago had 350. A plan to release prisoners held for minor offences like parole violations did not meet targets.
Response
The singer Madonna has joined with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to support efforts to find vaccines or treatments. Madonna has tested positive for COVID antibodies.
An Australian vaccine has shown a potent protective response against the virus - better than having had the disease - and will go into human trials.
The Federal US government has launched "Operation Warpspeed" to deliver 300 million doses of vaccine by January.
More US states are opening for business. In Florida, which was hit early, restaurants and most businesses will open on May 4. Schools and bars remain closed, as do the five most populous counties. India is lifting a nationwide lockdown on Sunday.
More US states are opening for business. In Florida, which was hit early, restaurants and most businesses will open on May 4. Schools and bars remain closed, as do the five most populous counties. India is lifting a nationwide lockdown on Sunday.
Many of these lockdowns were begun without a plan as a kneejerk imposition, had a temporary impact, but will not achieve much as they are both too late and unsustainable. All they do is 'flatten the curve' a little.
New Zealand - closing borders
It is far cheaper and less intrusive to close borders than close whole economies. Yet most Western countries were strangely reluctant to do it, even the islands for whom it is quite easy. They generally waited for an incoming traveller to show the disease, then closed borders with that country. Now they are losing many billions of dollars and many people are dying as well.
Although
Australia and New Zealand have effectively beaten the disease, it is widely considered
this was more due to good luck than good planning. Auckland University
Medical Professor Des Gorman told the Epidemic Response Committee New Zealand
was not "adequately" prepared, the border was not closed soon enough,
and the nation should have had a central agency to manage it. "I think we
squandered our main advantage which is our geography because we did not have a
hard, early border closure."
Finally, three months too late, New Zealand is quarantining all arrivals, not just those showing symptoms.
Finally a random survey of infection level
For the first time, a country (Britain) is carrying out a randomised
test for the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, using a sample of 10,000 tested at monthly intervals. One might have imagined this is the
first thing one would do for planning purposes. It is hard to understand why it has taken this long
or why such a large sample is necessary.
We have already stated our opinion that the gross delay in rudimentary planning and evaluation is because the response has not been run by a
multidisciplinary team. This crisis
has been far too serious to be left to doctors alone. It is all part of the
generally chaotic, uncoordinated and
substandard response by Western countries to the epidemic.
Geopolitical
The US intelligence community has confirmed the medical assessment in Lancet some weeks ago that the virus could not have been man-made but is wild.
Economy
30.3 millions have now filed for unemployment benefits in the USA. Republican states are saying workers will need to return to work, even if they believe it is unsafe. Critics say the message is "Endanger your life or starve".
Numerous hospitals have slashed pay for doctors and other staff, despite the risks they are facing. Despite commendations form leaders, hazard pay has not been approved.
Environment
The International Energy Agency said the outbreak of Covid-19 would wipe out
demand for fossil fuels by prompting a collapse in energy demand seven times
greater than the slump caused by the global financial crisis.
The IEA said the most severe plunge in energy
demand since the Second World War would trigger multi-decade lows for the world’s consumption of
oil, gas and coal while renewable energy continued to grow.
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