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The virus
Los Alamos scientists have been investigating a possibility we once considered here - that a particularly lethal variant of the virus developed in Europe, outcompeted the others and became dominant around the world. So far however there is no evidence that any one variant is more dangerous than another, nor that any population has better resistance - as we originally thought must be the case when we saw the East Asian figures.
The mutation they are investigating is in the spike protein, not the main RNA sequence - but it is associated with the European 'Variant C' only. However, Variant C has done no better than others in places like Washington State. We are definitely looking at a founder effect in Europe - where the first variant to arrive spreads rapidly and gains an immense advantage before others become established.
Further study of the virus has suggested that its advantage over SARS-1 and MERS (and its reduced mortality) lies not so much in superspreader effectiveness as in its unique ability to infect the upper respiratory tract. Here it is highly infectious but not much more lethal than a cold. The problems occur when it moves down to the lungs, where it appears to be just as lethal as its predecessor coronaviruses. The much higher mortality among old people might relate to a (hypothetical) reduced ability to keep mouth infections out of their lungs.
There has been a single new case in Wuhan. A handful of other cases are all along the North Korea border.
Some households in Canada will be allowed to "double bubble" with another couple, for company.
Daily cases in Belarus are about 1000 a day and still rising. By comparison its northern neighbours the Baltic States have suppressed the virus. The country has taken no lockdown measures, but it has tested over 2% of the population. The country has an infection rate more than four times that of its neighbours, but official statistics only show 100 deaths so far. It should provide a valuable baseline comparison of what happens with no intervention - in the unlikely event reporting is accurate.
The mutation they are investigating is in the spike protein, not the main RNA sequence - but it is associated with the European 'Variant C' only. However, Variant C has done no better than others in places like Washington State. We are definitely looking at a founder effect in Europe - where the first variant to arrive spreads rapidly and gains an immense advantage before others become established.
Further study of the virus has suggested that its advantage over SARS-1 and MERS (and its reduced mortality) lies not so much in superspreader effectiveness as in its unique ability to infect the upper respiratory tract. Here it is highly infectious but not much more lethal than a cold. The problems occur when it moves down to the lungs, where it appears to be just as lethal as its predecessor coronaviruses. The much higher mortality among old people might relate to a (hypothetical) reduced ability to keep mouth infections out of their lungs.
Epidemic
African Americans appear to have a higher rate of infection and a higher death rate than other Americans - or at least, districts that have a disproportionate number of black people do. The researchers found that socioeconomic status was a better predictor of the survival rate than the quality of local medical facilities.There has been a single new case in Wuhan. A handful of other cases are all along the North Korea border.
Response
Sweden's chief epidemiologist has described the death toll of 2000 as "horrifying". Sweden has been unique in maintaining a L2 lockdown, which is largely advisory.
In January the US government turned down repeated offers from a Texas medical supply company to make millions of N95 masks only to face critical shortages in March. The
whistleblower, Rick Bright, directed the Biomedical Advanced Research and
Development Authority at the time and alleges he was subsequently demoted
because he tried to “prioritize science and safety over political expediency" by refusing to investigate chloroquine as a COVID cure.
Some households in Canada will be allowed to "double bubble" with another couple, for company.
Belarus
Belarus, Europe's 'last dictatorship', staged a crowded military parade for WWII. In March their President Lukashenko was tackling coronavirus with vodka and hot saunas, saying it is better to live standing than die on your knees. The country's soccer league continues to play and he played a game of ice hockey himself in late March. He has described lockdown measures as "a psychosis." As he continues to brazen it out, a petition has been signed by 150,000 Belarussians to lock down the country.Daily cases in Belarus are about 1000 a day and still rising. By comparison its northern neighbours the Baltic States have suppressed the virus. The country has taken no lockdown measures, but it has tested over 2% of the population. The country has an infection rate more than four times that of its neighbours, but official statistics only show 100 deaths so far. It should provide a valuable baseline comparison of what happens with no intervention - in the unlikely event reporting is accurate.
Re-opening
According to a University of Maryland opinion poll the US public opposes re-opening of restaurants and retail stores. President Trump's ratings are negative but governors and senior medical officials have ratings over 70% positive.
Some countries are allowing parts of the population out on different days, to reduce mingling. In Colombia it is men and women, in Costa Rica on car number plates, and in other Central American countries on odd and even social security numbers.
In the week after restaurants and hair salons were opened in Georgia USA, more than half a million visitors from other states flocked there, according to cellphone location data.
In June Spain will allow open air events of 800. Daily new cases are still running at about 1200, from a maximum of about 9000 on 1 April. These countries do not have the patience to sit out their pandemics.
'Swarms' of people have 'stormed' stores in NSW and Queensland prior to Mothers Day . Retailers are optimistic about a revival, saying it is 'really great', but others are alarmed at the inevitable flouting of social distancing rules.
On April 28 Korea reopened its offices bars and restaurants with "rules for everything" - masks, at-risk people excluded, no cash, side by side seating. Now Seoul City has closed more than 2100 bars and nightspots again, saying that tooo many new cases are associated with the venues. More than two dozen cases were linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon. About 7200 people attended these venues, so tracing is not possible. New cases have been under 30 a day for a month, but it has been hard to get below that without a lockdown.
Our take on all this is that as long as people are aware of the problem, everyone is probably fine, but as soon as everyone gets drunk and merry they throw caution to the winds - which is not acceptable until cases are near zero. Superspreaders are particularly damaging in these drinking venues - but we currently have no means of identifying them.
Some countries are allowing parts of the population out on different days, to reduce mingling. In Colombia it is men and women, in Costa Rica on car number plates, and in other Central American countries on odd and even social security numbers.
In the week after restaurants and hair salons were opened in Georgia USA, more than half a million visitors from other states flocked there, according to cellphone location data.
In June Spain will allow open air events of 800. Daily new cases are still running at about 1200, from a maximum of about 9000 on 1 April. These countries do not have the patience to sit out their pandemics.
'Swarms' of people have 'stormed' stores in NSW and Queensland prior to Mothers Day . Retailers are optimistic about a revival, saying it is 'really great', but others are alarmed at the inevitable flouting of social distancing rules.
On April 28 Korea reopened its offices bars and restaurants with "rules for everything" - masks, at-risk people excluded, no cash, side by side seating. Now Seoul City has closed more than 2100 bars and nightspots again, saying that tooo many new cases are associated with the venues. More than two dozen cases were linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon. About 7200 people attended these venues, so tracing is not possible. New cases have been under 30 a day for a month, but it has been hard to get below that without a lockdown.
Our take on all this is that as long as people are aware of the problem, everyone is probably fine, but as soon as everyone gets drunk and merry they throw caution to the winds - which is not acceptable until cases are near zero. Superspreaders are particularly damaging in these drinking venues - but we currently have no means of identifying them.
Economy
The Bank of England has estimated economic activity in Britain will fall by 25% in Q2, but will bounce back immediately.
Unemployment in America - the Washington Post finds 25% of the workforce are unemployed or unemployed. It is forecast that half the losses will become permanent.'Minorities' are the hardest hit - the Hispanic and Asian unemployment rates have increased by 4 and 6 times, while women and blacks are also hard hit. Some economists fear employers will replace workers by disease-immune robots.
Amsterdam residents are enjoying the serenity with tourists gone, saying it is like a return to the 1970s and 1980s. The balance of business in the city has become skewed towards tourists. There have been many complaints about "overtourism", particularly since Asians joined the flood of tourists.
Unemployment in America - the Washington Post finds 25% of the workforce are unemployed or unemployed. It is forecast that half the losses will become permanent.'Minorities' are the hardest hit - the Hispanic and Asian unemployment rates have increased by 4 and 6 times, while women and blacks are also hard hit. Some economists fear employers will replace workers by disease-immune robots.
Environment
Odd spots
Face masks have become a fashion accessory.
Three people killed a security guard at a dollar store in Ohio when told a child had to wear a face mask to enter.
Three people killed a security guard at a dollar store in Ohio when told a child had to wear a face mask to enter.
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