13 May Pandemicia coronavirus report #21
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| Parisians gather along the Seine |
Epidemic
The epidemic is still winding upward in Russia, Brazil and Mexico. Brazil's President Bolsonaro has said beauty salons, gyms and barbers should be treated as “essential services” and can reopen.
The USA has about a third of the world's cases.
In China, cases keep creeping across the Russian border. The Chines plan to test all 11 million inhabitants of Wuhan.
Children are playing a very small role in the spread of the virus, but more than 70 children in the USA and UK have been identified as having a peculiar inflammatory condition that resembles toxic shock or 'Kawasawi disease'. No conclusive link has yet been made between this condition and COVID-19. It has not appeared in Australia.
Estimates of care home deaths in the UK suggest that only 40% have been officially recorded- 22,000 may have died. Care homes have been running at 10% to 20% staff absence rates.
In Iquitos, Peru, 189 of the 350 doctors fighting the disease has been infected.
Cuba has suppressed the virus (less than 10 cases per day).
The magic of numbers
As someone who has specialised in numbers and their politicisation, I must say I have never seen a situation where so much rests on just a few numbers that people have not bothered to collect, and how their use, misuse or wild appropriation has led to the deployment of trillions of dollars worldwide.The main unknown is what proportion of the population is infected - and how does it relate to the numbers that are being collected - the "confirmed infected" in a test approved by doctors. This ratio is really important because first it is necessary for any kind of modelling or forecasting - if you don't know how many are infected, and how many keep being infected, then modelling is just a theoretical exercise. Second, the policy responses are largely dependent on the ratios.
For example - if 45% of the population were infected in New York, there would be no point in having a lockdown - you might as well just quarantine the area and try to save the old people. But if only 5% were infected - you should try to stop the spread of the disease by lockdown.
Despite its importance very little effort has been put into establishing this ratio, and consequently everyone is flying blind. The responses we have seen so far are not backed by any kind of data.
The advance of confirmed cases has (mostly) dramatically slowed right on cue 5-8 days afterwards, so we are pretty sure lockdown works.
There have been all sorts of improbable statements out there even by prestigious research centres and in refereed journals such as Lancet, about how 20-30% have been infected. At last, the National Statistical Office in England is testing - and they are showing a very low number infected in England, about a quarter of a percent - quite close to the confirmed active infections.
There are obviously a lot of people who ought to know better out there with a vested interested in assuming something completely wrong - without evidence.
USA - rolling epidemic
Daily confirmed cases across the US are only declining slightly. They have fallen - still quite slowly - from 7000 to 2300 in New York, but they are increasing in the Midwest and Maryland.Response
Bills giving police sweeping powers to enter homes and enforce emergency rules are being passed in parts of the USA and Australia.
Hours after the eight week lockdown in Paris was lifted, police were forced to disperse crowds along the banks of the Seine, and drinking was banned. Parks and gardens will not be opened in 'red' areas where the virus is active. The French have been told to rediscover their own country.
Remdesvir has been authorised by the FDA, but there is no evidence it works on COVID.
Hours after the eight week lockdown in Paris was lifted, police were forced to disperse crowds along the banks of the Seine, and drinking was banned. Parks and gardens will not be opened in 'red' areas where the virus is active. The French have been told to rediscover their own country.
Remdesvir has been authorised by the FDA, but there is no evidence it works on COVID.
Not so easy
Even in places with very few cases, clusters keep popping up. In Melbourne, Cedar Meats has been associated with 88 cases, while one MacDonalds has six staff members infected.Economy
March was the worst month for the British economy on record - with GDP slumping by 5.8%. The real slump is about to be recorded.
Substantial amounts of personal debt are being paid off - which is typical in a crisis. New Zealand has repaid 5% of its credit card debt in a month. The same thing happened in the USA. Visa recorded that credit card payment volumes plunged by 31% through April 28. Travel spending fell by 80%.
Australia
In a L3 Lockdown, Australia has been able to keep its export industries rolling - with an increase of 15% in exports. With falling demand, imports have dropped by 10% since January. The balance of payments surplus has therefore improved from $4b to over $10b.Visitor arrivals in Australia have had the largest fall on record from 800,000 to 300,000 in a month. Resident returns have also fallen by 23% in March.
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