16 May Pandemicia coronavirus report #22
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| Suspected case helped out of ambulance near Moscow. |
Epidemic
Russia passed other European countries in cases some time ago. Brazil will pass them too within a few days. It had a record 17.000 new cases yesterday, nearly twice as many as Russia. New cases in Mexico are still increasing.
USA will pass 1.5 million cases in 3 days.
Outside of Scandinavia, none of the Western European countries has yet gone below the 100 cases per day that I take as evidence of 'suppression'. Most E/SE Asian countries have, and the 'Eastern stretch' from the Baltic States south. Cuba is below 20.
Iran has been having the infamous "second wave" since 3 May - new cases have tripled (infamous because the USA hasn't passed its first wave by a long shot).
I am afraid that India is going to be very bad, possibly the worst of all. Bangladesh is also looking bad.
USA will pass 1.5 million cases in 3 days.
Outside of Scandinavia, none of the Western European countries has yet gone below the 100 cases per day that I take as evidence of 'suppression'. Most E/SE Asian countries have, and the 'Eastern stretch' from the Baltic States south. Cuba is below 20.
Iran has been having the infamous "second wave" since 3 May - new cases have tripled (infamous because the USA hasn't passed its first wave by a long shot).
I am afraid that India is going to be very bad, possibly the worst of all. Bangladesh is also looking bad.
Russia
Russia developed and deployed testing systems by 24 January, and numbers infected appear to be accurate. While Russia has the most confirmed CV cases in Europe at over 250,000, there are only 2305 deaths. Based on other European countries at the same stage of the epidemic, one would expect to see about 30,000. Russia has strongly defended its position, saying it has not manipulated data and this is a political hit and a smear campaign.Part of the difference appears to be that while other countries have attributed any death in an infected patient to COVID-19 - because of its capacity to deliver organ-destroying shocks - the Russians have not included any deaths from organ failure or comorbidities, saying 60% of patients with the virus died from other factors. Others have pointed to 20% surplus deaths in April in Moscow - but all this is still nowhere near sufficient to account for the large discrepancy.
The traditional reluctance of regional officials in Russia to report bad news is almost certainly a big contributor. "It's almost as if governors have declared no one's allowed to die from COVID-19."
Maths and modelling of infection The mathematics of modelling is very simple but depends on a few unknown parameters - the R0 or average numbers infected by an infected person, and the average number of days each person takes to become infectious and stays infectious. This page contains several applets allowing one to play with numbers.
Navajo nation
$8 billion was allocated to native American communities as part of the Cares Act on March 18, but nothing has turned up. The 350,000 person reservation has become one of the US hotspots, with 2700 cases and over 80 deaths
Response
Some of the small improvements in treatment are canvassed in this article. It also stresses the peculiar system shocks of COVID, and some of the apparently mild cases that can result in death - for example, oxygen starvation, 'silent hypoxia'.
Researchers in several American universities estimated that areas without shelter-in-place orders had potentially 10 times more virus spread or 35 times more in areas with no social distancing guidelines at all.
Good practice responses in a number of smaller nations are listed here. They include Georgia, Vietnam, Ghana, Costa Rica, Lebanon and New Zealand
Researchers in several American universities estimated that areas without shelter-in-place orders had potentially 10 times more virus spread or 35 times more in areas with no social distancing guidelines at all.
Good practice responses in a number of smaller nations are listed here. They include Georgia, Vietnam, Ghana, Costa Rica, Lebanon and New Zealand
Mental Health
Suicides have declined 20% in Japan in April. It appears that in Japan at least, staying at home with one's family away from the stresses of work, travel and schoolplace bullying significantly improves mental health.
In the meantime, Australian mental health support organisations report much higher levels of activity than usual and are seeking greater levels of funding than the $48m already allocated. Presumably it is a lot easier to call support lines if at home, though the impact on actual suicides is unclear without evidence. Some advocates conveniently claimed "the deaths and damage caused by mental illness would overshadow those caused by the disease".
In the USA, many studies have also sought to show an 'increase in mental distress' to garner very large amounts of additional funding.
While 'staying at home' is likely to prove much less damaging to mental health than advocates are proposing, the real problem will bite when the financial support packages are gone for those who have lost their jobs. Medical workers dealing with the crisis are also hard hit.
In the meantime, Australian mental health support organisations report much higher levels of activity than usual and are seeking greater levels of funding than the $48m already allocated. Presumably it is a lot easier to call support lines if at home, though the impact on actual suicides is unclear without evidence. Some advocates conveniently claimed "the deaths and damage caused by mental illness would overshadow those caused by the disease".
In the USA, many studies have also sought to show an 'increase in mental distress' to garner very large amounts of additional funding.
While 'staying at home' is likely to prove much less damaging to mental health than advocates are proposing, the real problem will bite when the financial support packages are gone for those who have lost their jobs. Medical workers dealing with the crisis are also hard hit.
Economic
It has taken a while for the public to realise that food delivery services will lift the price by 10% to 30%. More are now picking up meals themselves.
In the USA more than 100,000 small businesses have shuttered permanently, particularly those in high-rent areas. The Fed says 40% of households earning less than $40,000 a year lost their jobs.
Farmers are also having great difficulties. Although everyone is still eating, supply chains often lead through restaurants that are now closed. Farmers have been "forced to euthanize millions of hogs and chickens, give away tons of unwanted potatoes, and pour out enough milk to fill a small lake". One US farmer had to give up a million pounds of seed potatoes as he had no French Fry outlet. It has been estimated American farmers will lose more than $20b this year. To health advocates of course, the decline in fast food consumption is a blessing.
The World Food program estimates the number of people facing acute hunger will double this year to 265 million. A U.N. study says more than a half billion people could become impoverished. And already, nearly half the global workforce has lost their jobs.
Farmers are also having great difficulties. Although everyone is still eating, supply chains often lead through restaurants that are now closed. Farmers have been "forced to euthanize millions of hogs and chickens, give away tons of unwanted potatoes, and pour out enough milk to fill a small lake". One US farmer had to give up a million pounds of seed potatoes as he had no French Fry outlet. It has been estimated American farmers will lose more than $20b this year. To health advocates of course, the decline in fast food consumption is a blessing.
The World Food program estimates the number of people facing acute hunger will double this year to 265 million. A U.N. study says more than a half billion people could become impoverished. And already, nearly half the global workforce has lost their jobs.
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