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| Austria with some restrictions relaxed - a little busier than Australia |
Epidemic
Russia has passed France in official cases as the epidemic there intensifies. This is suspected to be a considerable underestimate and Russia may in fact be second only to USA in cases. Moscow's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said that the real number of cases in the Russian capital was actually around 300,000, a figure that is more than three times higher than the official total. So far it has had only 1600 deaths, compared with 25,000 in France.
The global case mortality rate has risen from 5.2% to 6.9% since 1 April, as the pandemic has progressed (deaths have gone up faster than confirmed cases). The true death rate is considered to be below 1%, possibly well below if the early serological tests are any indication.
After Belgium, the highest case mortality rate is in the UK, at 15.2%. This number depends on tests conducted and the number of less serious cases found. The number of PCR tests conducted in the UK have doubled in the last fortnight, but are still only a third of those in Italy or Spain.
Dr Neil Ferguson, the distinguished epidemiologist, has resigned from the government's secretive scientific advisory group (SAGE) after after violating restrictions by illicitly meeting his lover. He had just come out of his own self-isolation after contracting the virus. In February he estimated that only one in ten persons in China with the disease were being detected, and only one in three of those arriving in the UK. In March he estimated that as things were going, 250,000 to 500,000 would die in the UK (this can be done easily on the back of an envelope) - prompting the British change of tack to adopt lockdown.
A French doctor near Charles de Gaulle airport has tested some old pneumonia cases and one has tested positive. The patient would have had symptoms from mid December, and had no known contact with China. Otherwise, the first known COVID case in Europe is from the Munich cluster beginning 20 January.
The considerably lower COVID death rate among women may be due to Toll-like Receptor 7 on the X chromosome. Because women have two X chromosomes they have a heightened immune response to viruses. (the negative side is that 80% of auto-immune diseases are found among women)
A village in Bali has been sealed off by the military, with hundreds of villagers infected. More than 10,000 migrant workers have returned to Bali, many from cruise ships, and ignoring self-quarantining rules.
'Serological' antibody tests are not very reliable - but they are revealing a considerably higher number of infected people than the usual PCR tests. In Kobe Japan, a sample of 1000 hospital outpatients suggested 3% had antibodies - more than 300 times the case infection rate in Kobe. A similar result was found in Santa Clara California. On the one hand this is not good if one is seeking quarantine or eradication, as symptomless cases are very hard to spot - presuming they are capable of causing infections. However it might imply that European populations are very much closer to 'herd immunity' levels than usually thought.
Hong Kong has been clear of new cases for two weeks, while mainland China has been clear for 18 days but has now had a single case.
The global case mortality rate has risen from 5.2% to 6.9% since 1 April, as the pandemic has progressed (deaths have gone up faster than confirmed cases). The true death rate is considered to be below 1%, possibly well below if the early serological tests are any indication.
After Belgium, the highest case mortality rate is in the UK, at 15.2%. This number depends on tests conducted and the number of less serious cases found. The number of PCR tests conducted in the UK have doubled in the last fortnight, but are still only a third of those in Italy or Spain.
Dr Neil Ferguson, the distinguished epidemiologist, has resigned from the government's secretive scientific advisory group (SAGE) after after violating restrictions by illicitly meeting his lover. He had just come out of his own self-isolation after contracting the virus. In February he estimated that only one in ten persons in China with the disease were being detected, and only one in three of those arriving in the UK. In March he estimated that as things were going, 250,000 to 500,000 would die in the UK (this can be done easily on the back of an envelope) - prompting the British change of tack to adopt lockdown.
A French doctor near Charles de Gaulle airport has tested some old pneumonia cases and one has tested positive. The patient would have had symptoms from mid December, and had no known contact with China. Otherwise, the first known COVID case in Europe is from the Munich cluster beginning 20 January.
The considerably lower COVID death rate among women may be due to Toll-like Receptor 7 on the X chromosome. Because women have two X chromosomes they have a heightened immune response to viruses. (the negative side is that 80% of auto-immune diseases are found among women)
A village in Bali has been sealed off by the military, with hundreds of villagers infected. More than 10,000 migrant workers have returned to Bali, many from cruise ships, and ignoring self-quarantining rules.
'Serological' antibody tests are not very reliable - but they are revealing a considerably higher number of infected people than the usual PCR tests. In Kobe Japan, a sample of 1000 hospital outpatients suggested 3% had antibodies - more than 300 times the case infection rate in Kobe. A similar result was found in Santa Clara California. On the one hand this is not good if one is seeking quarantine or eradication, as symptomless cases are very hard to spot - presuming they are capable of causing infections. However it might imply that European populations are very much closer to 'herd immunity' levels than usually thought.
Hong Kong has been clear of new cases for two weeks, while mainland China has been clear for 18 days but has now had a single case.
Response
Good response
Seven billion Euros for virus development was donated during a telesummit hosted by EU. US and Russia were absent. The US government’s top expert Dr Anthony Fauci has cautioned that even if everything goes perfectly, developing a vaccine in 12 to 18 months would set a record for speed.
Bad response
Of the 18.1 million who entered the UK between 1 January to lockdown on 21 March, only 273 were quarantined. These were all repatriated nationals on four flights. Not a single arrival from Italy, Spain or the USA was quarantined, although the epidemic was raging in these places. It is very hard to understand why the normal first line of pandemic defence - border control - remained largely inactive not just in the UK but across the Western world.An infected schoolteacher was refused testing three times in March because he 'did not meet the criteria'. His family then became infected, and his school had to close. The rationing of tests has been a necessary corollary of the shortage of kits, and has allowed the virus to go much further than it should.
Recovery
New York is putting a great deal of weight on a large scale serological test, intending to give out "immunity passports" or "risk-free certificates" to those with antibodies. The WHO continues to warn that there is as yet no evidence that the presence of antibodies will protect from the virus. Colour-coded health passes have been issued in Wuhan, allowing people to travel freely. Quite some time ago we pointed out that this might lead to people perversely seeking infection so they could avoid restrictions.
A number of countries and districts are 'relaxing restrictions' but it is necessary to read the small print to see what they are actually doing. The ongoing L3 lockdown in Australia has worked perfectly well, and if they are dropping from L4 to L3 there is no problem.
Austria, the most successful country in Europe, had a 'first opening step' on 14 April and there has been no surge in cases. Bars and restaurants will open later in the month, but 'social distancing' must be maintained. Australia could almost certainly do the same as it is in even better shape. Oddly, the Austrians are keen to re-open borders, though one would think this is the last thing that should be done.
Despite the Federal government in Australia being prepared to loosen restrictions, the Premiers of the two largest states are not. They feel that the sacrifices made to bring cases down to a very low level can . "We’ve come a long way and we can’t give that all back. We just can't", said Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.
The re-opening of Texas has been described as anti-climactic. While the people have flocked to beaches and parks, the newly re-opened malls, department stores, restaurants, and movie theatres sit empty. People are seeking Nature, where social distancing can be more easily practised without the dystopian-feeling scene of Plexiglas barriers separating one from a fellow diner. A number of major retailers such as luxury retailer Nieman Marcus have already filed for bankruptcy.
A number of countries and districts are 'relaxing restrictions' but it is necessary to read the small print to see what they are actually doing. The ongoing L3 lockdown in Australia has worked perfectly well, and if they are dropping from L4 to L3 there is no problem.
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| Austria new cases - 'good pattern' |
Despite the Federal government in Australia being prepared to loosen restrictions, the Premiers of the two largest states are not. They feel that the sacrifices made to bring cases down to a very low level can . "We’ve come a long way and we can’t give that all back. We just can't", said Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.
The re-opening of Texas has been described as anti-climactic. While the people have flocked to beaches and parks, the newly re-opened malls, department stores, restaurants, and movie theatres sit empty. People are seeking Nature, where social distancing can be more easily practised without the dystopian-feeling scene of Plexiglas barriers separating one from a fellow diner. A number of major retailers such as luxury retailer Nieman Marcus have already filed for bankruptcy.
Iran has reopened mosques in parts of the country deemed at low risk from the virus after allowing a phased reopening of businesses since April 11.
Pakistan is also easing restrictions even though new cases are still advancing. "We have too many poor people," said Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Repatriation
A total of 190,000 Indians will be repatriated in the coming weeks from several countries, including those in the Middle East, where huge numbers of Indian blue-collar workers live. Three ships from the Indian Navy are involved, and 64 repatriation flights landed on May 7.Economy
A reasonable summary of how the economies of China, Italy, United Kingdom, Germany and the USA are expected to be impacted by the pandemic is given at How economies
around the world are responding to the coronavirus. Italy's economy is most at risk, followed by the USA.
The Bank of England expects "the worst recession in 300 years". The EU Commission has told the Eurozone to prepare for its deepest recession in its history.
The number filing for unemployment benefits in the USA is now over 33 million. President Trump says the US economy will "transform into greatness" in the third quarter.
The Bank of England expects "the worst recession in 300 years". The EU Commission has told the Eurozone to prepare for its deepest recession in its history.
The number filing for unemployment benefits in the USA is now over 33 million. President Trump says the US economy will "transform into greatness" in the third quarter.
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