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| India converted railway carriage |
16 June Pandemicia coronavirus report #29
Epidemic
After only a week - it is disturbing to see that total world cases are a million greater and over 8 million, while Brazil is 20% higher, nearly 900,000, and by next week will be over a million. Peru will pass Italy tomorrow.
Five new states in the USA now have significant epidemics. New cases are climbing in 22 states, most notably Arizona, Texas and Florida. Restaurants in these states have had ot close when employees tested positive. In New York and New Jersey, governors are threatening to close again if patrons gather shoulder-to-shoulder.
At last a drug has been approved for treatment - the common anti-inflammatory steroid dexamethasone. It reduces deaths on ventilators by a third, and on oxygen by a fifth, apparently slowing down immune system 'cytokine storm' reactions.. It has been estimated if it were deployed earlier it would have saved 5000 lives in Britain alone.
For more than a month, cases in Australia have been trotting along at 6 to 18 per day. As predicted by epidemiologists, CV has proven difficult to eradicate - not helped by a continuing influx from abroad despite closed borders. One European diplomat breezed through border control, met with 50 people and came down next day. A family returning from Sudan turned out to be positive.
An outbreak in a Beijing wholesale market has led to the testing of hundreds of thousands of people. Parts of Beijing are in lockdown. 
New studies on superspreaders confirm 20% may infect 80% of cases. Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures
Response
There is excess demand for medical services everywhere in India. In Delhi, 500 railway carriages are being converted into pop-up wards.
Unprecedented levels of recovery finance are being paid to small business in the US, but the Trump administration has been blocking proper oversight. Retirees living abroad are still waiting for stimulus payments. Millions of undocumented and international college students will not be receiving pandemic relief. High school seniors can apply to half of all Ivy League colleges without SAT scores.
Twenty-one
states have enacted orders that grant nursing homes immunity from most
lawsuits, depriving potential plaintiffs of the ability to uncover an
accounting of their relatives’ last days. Since March, federal officials have curtailed
routine inspections and restricted visitors in homes, leaving families to peer
through windows or plead for information over the phone.
$7 billion of US federal funds were allocated for CV research. Drugs developed with millions of public funds have been flipped to drug giants.
Asylum seekers in Canada working in aged centres may be offered accelerated status in recognition of their contribution.
Many more chemotherapy patients have been opting for treatment at home in Australia. Both supply and demand for hospital services has been an issue. The chance of infection is 30% higher in a hospital. Many nurses were transferred out of 'white elephant' cancer centres to ICUs in anticipation of a flood of patients that never came.
Geopolitical
Lockdown deniers have taken a very long time to mobilise but they are getting great support and attention. Most of the material they present was obvious very early in the pandemic, or else is false. It seem very doubtful that if the response had undergone any kind of political process rather than being placed in the hands of a few epidemiologists everywhere, there would have been any lockdowns - as there was no evidence for their efficacy, no analysis of which particular lockdown levels were required in what circumstances, or much else except they were extraordinarily disruptive and hugely expensive. It is fortunate that they have clearly been effective in suppressing epidemics in many countries.
Trump fans attending his rallies next month must sign a waiver saying they will not sue the campaign if they get sick.
Economy
The World Bank has forecast that global economic activity will fall by 5.2%, the fourth worst downturn in 150 years. Per capita incomes are expected to fall by 6.2%.
The US stock market apparently decided on a V shaped recovery and went almost all the way back to the the old level before gapping down twice. Bears appear to be asserting control.
Australia used to receive 1.5 million incoming travellers a year and now has had only 40,000 since the start of the epidemic - an unprecedented 98.4% fall.
In Australia, the decision to end support for free childcare next month has been slammed.
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