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| China National Peoples Congress reconvenes after two months |
1 June Pandemicia coronavirus report #26
Epidemic
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| Daily global new cases |
Brazil rapidly passed half a million cases, and Russia 400,000. It is amazing how quickly the gap has opened between USA, Brazil, Russia and the European "Big Four", who now only have 15% of total cases. Brazil had 33,000 new cases in a single day. Peru just had a huge single spike in cases, probably due to the way statistics are collected.
India, which we expect to be the worst of all, has passed Germany and France in total cases. It currently has over 9000 new cases a day, but this is rising rapidly. .
China, which first recognised the outbreak, is now 15th on the list of total cases. It now has had only 1.5% of global cases
Jordan has been pointed out as another success story with less than 10 cases a day. It has a population of 10 million and abuts Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Iraq. Jordan depends largely on remittances, and it has a large Palestinian refugee population - both of which circumstances might have quickly led to a significant outbreak. However, the COVID pattern of being largely a "well-connected, rich country" disease has so far been maintained in this region, with only Saudi Arabia and Israel having a significant number of cases.
Iran
In Iran, the second country to have an epidemic after China, cases went down to 1000 cases a day in early May (from over 3000) but have rallied again in a second peak of about 2500 a day. It is the first country to have a second peak of infections. Iran has had great difficulty obtaining supplies because of the US sanctions against it. "prohibiting Iran from using the banking sector, by prohibiting Iran from purchasing goods from important pharmaceutical companies.". Prayers have been resumed in mosques in the middle of this new surge.The country has been divided into three zones, red, orange and white, according to the number of infections as in Italy, and restrictions have been applied and lifted by zone. This zonal approach did not work in Italy and it has not worked in Iran.
Response
What is now being shown is that countries really have no idea why they are doing lockdowns. The original intention was they would do this repeatedly in response to surges in the disease, to keep deaths down to manageable levels. Instead, governments have "just done it" "and then "just stopped" no matter what was going on. Lockdown has therefore represented a single opportunity to slow the epidemic, one which has not been employed at the right time except for the very few Western countries such as Australia that made it work.
It was probably a long shot trying to get the recalcitrant American public to conform voluntarily with social distancing, and it was going to be impossible without a consistent message from the top. The Lake of the Ozarks and even Kennedy Space Centre have been packed in a way that makes Swedish restaurants and Italian bars look empty.
Some people interviewed have declared themselves confused by the patchwork of differing state and local requirements, along with enforcement that ranges from restrictive to none. Still others said they were disbelieving or simply mad at what they considered an exaggerated threat. The push against "authoritarianism" is spearheaded by businesses that are refusing to let people wearing masks into their premises and publicly encouraging hugging and handshakes.
Small towns find it particularly hard to get support. Storm Lake Iowa is a pork packing centre. Despite calls from owners, workers and residents, a testing team did not arrive till May 16. They found 10% of the town's population were infected and 58% of the meat workers.
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| SpaceX liftoff, Cape Kennedy |
Some people interviewed have declared themselves confused by the patchwork of differing state and local requirements, along with enforcement that ranges from restrictive to none. Still others said they were disbelieving or simply mad at what they considered an exaggerated threat. The push against "authoritarianism" is spearheaded by businesses that are refusing to let people wearing masks into their premises and publicly encouraging hugging and handshakes.
Meatworks
On 26 May the US President ordered meatworks to stay open as essential infrastructure, despite most of them having no access to testing and PPE. He could have instituted "tough, specific, mandatory requirements for meat processors to slow down their lines, institute proper social distancing, frequently shut down plants for deep cleaning and repeatedly test all workers to isolate the infected" but did not.Small towns find it particularly hard to get support. Storm Lake Iowa is a pork packing centre. Despite calls from owners, workers and residents, a testing team did not arrive till May 16. They found 10% of the town's population were infected and 58% of the meat workers.
Equipment
Fast operators continue to try to take advantage of the confusion. A Brisbane company Promedical Equipment with no prior diagnostic experience had a series of collapsed deals to supply rapid test kits to Australia and Puerto Rico. Initially it was using Chinese kits, but then it began manufacturing its own which were unsanctioned and unproven. The company was fined $63,000 for claiming they were approved on its website.
In Africa, a number of attempts to develop low-cost ventilators are under way. The Kenyan government has been supporting the production of PPE equipment in its export zones since February.
In Australia, manufacturing firm could not compete with China. Only one small producer of face masks and hospital linen remains - Medcon in the fruit-growing town of Shepparton, north of Melbourne. The government is seeking to ramp up production and Medcon will be a major employer in the short term.Defence Forces personnel have stepped in to assist while new staff are being trained. .
In Africa, a number of attempts to develop low-cost ventilators are under way. The Kenyan government has been supporting the production of PPE equipment in its export zones since February.
In Australia, manufacturing firm could not compete with China. Only one small producer of face masks and hospital linen remains - Medcon in the fruit-growing town of Shepparton, north of Melbourne. The government is seeking to ramp up production and Medcon will be a major employer in the short term.Defence Forces personnel have stepped in to assist while new staff are being trained. .
Geopolitical
The pandemic is starkly revealing any divisions or weaknesses in society. Nowhere have these divisions been more evident than in USA, where the racial divide has had people "burning with rage" for generations.
USA riots
The deaths of black people at the hands of police have led to waves of rioting and violence on several occasions in teh past. This time it appears to be worse, possibly expressing pressures and anxieties that have built up during the epidemic and teh associated lockdown. Infections and deaths have been significantly higher in black communities. |
| Burning police car in Atlanta GA |
For six days, mixed-race crowds of thousands have marching and chanting in sixty US cities, mostly peacefully. However many protests have been followed by vandalism and looting, conducted by relatively small numbers of opportunists or agitators. Forty cities have imposed curfews, mostly ignored. Thousands have been arrested across the USA Seventeen thousand members of the National Guard, the American miliatary reserve, have been called out in 23 states. Tear gas and pepper spray was used to try to disperse crowds around the White House in Washington DC, which is ringed by fires..
Protests have been held in solidarity for "Black Lives Matter" in many countries. In Berlin, thousands of protesters demonstrated outside the American Embassy,
Australia
Only two COVID patients remain on ventilators in Australia. The success of Australia in suppressing the virus has put it in the surprising position of being a global leader. For virtually its whole history it followed first Britain then USA in all its international responses. The country has been dominated by a series of market liberal governments for 30 years, who have placed emphasis on low inflation rather than job creation, and have allowed Australia's manufacturing industry to run down almost to nothing.Early in the crisis in mid-March, the Prime Minister disbanded COAG, the meeting of States and the Commonwealth established in 1992 by Paul Keating. COAG only met twice a year, and was regarded as "a place where good ideas go to die" since attempts to raise important matters were often rapidly overwhelmed by other concerns. It has been replaced by a National Cabinet.similar to the one in WWII, meeting weekly using remote viewing The change has been deemed a success and is now here to stay, with the focus on job creation and getting the Australian economy back up and running. This is the biggest shake up in Federal relations in a generation, and an about-turn in economic policy after many years of minimal government intervention and action.
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| China trade change Feb, year on year |
Economy
China's change in trade by region for February is shown in the diagram. The fall in exports is about 20% overall. This will be much worse in succeeding months. Exactly what effect such a severe shock to global trade, comparable to wartime, will have is yet to be seen. Imports of meat and fuel actually increased under the pressure of lockdown, but a wide range of intermediate goods that have been taken for granted fell away - machinery, plastics and chemicals. Large numbers of foreign trade enterprises have closed down. This represents a severe dislocation of global supply chains.
The disappearance of immigrants and backpackers is going to result in an increase of Australia's extraordinarily low rental vacancy rates (2-3% in the major cities) up toward vacancy rates elsewhere in the world (9-11%). With so much pent-up demand, whether this will result in a similar adjustment of house prices to moderate levels remains to be seen.
A similar situation has been occurring in New Zealand, where although many bidders have turned up at property auctions, every property went at less than valuation.
With a general downturn of building and renovation activity, there is talk that the government may give grants to homeowners to keep the industry flourishing..This will do little to provide affordable housing for low income earners, the people who suffer the most from high prices.
Housing in Australia
Australia has some of the highest house prices in the world, probably three times what they ought to be, and rental markets have been very tight due to heavy immigration. Would-be first home buyers have been unable to compete with landlords and a very large pent-up demand exists. With interest rates at an all time low and a first-home owners scheme allowing deposits to be dropped to 5% without penalty, a mass of first home buyers are hoping to pick up 'bargains'. I attended the first open-house inspection prior to auction in months in this area - a fourth floor one-bedroom apartment. At least a hundred young people tromped through, a few at a time.The disappearance of immigrants and backpackers is going to result in an increase of Australia's extraordinarily low rental vacancy rates (2-3% in the major cities) up toward vacancy rates elsewhere in the world (9-11%). With so much pent-up demand, whether this will result in a similar adjustment of house prices to moderate levels remains to be seen.
A similar situation has been occurring in New Zealand, where although many bidders have turned up at property auctions, every property went at less than valuation.
With a general downturn of building and renovation activity, there is talk that the government may give grants to homeowners to keep the industry flourishing..This will do little to provide affordable housing for low income earners, the people who suffer the most from high prices.
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