24 June coronavirus report #30

24 June Pandemicia coronavirus report #30

Epidemic

The pandemic rages on in the severely affected countries - most of Latin America,  South Asia, Middle East,  and South Africa. Globally, new cases are heading toward 200,000 per day.

Brazil passed a million cases, and hit a new world record of 55,000 in one day (with an element of catchup). Chile and Peru reached inflection in early-mid June, but have passed the continental European countries in total cases.

China is now 21st on the list of countries in terms of cases, and 18th in deaths. Even Qatar has now passed China in cases, along with South Africa. Sweden has passed China in deaths. 

Egypt seems to be peaking, and Afghanistan has definitely done so. No new countries seem to have reached "suppression levels" of less than 50 cases per day. No country apart from New Zealand (and parts of Australia) is close to eradication, though Iceland, Cuba and the Baltic States have a chance. 

Israel is away on a second hump. Denmark, Czechia and Greece are struggling with 'blisters' or clusters, as is Germany. A slaughterhouse outbreak in Germany has led to 1500 workers being infected and two districts have been locked down.

The USA has lost all its gains due to lockdown in only two weeks - which was expected as people returned to their pre-COVID routines with thousands of new cases still occurring. "The data suggest that when  governments roll back quarantine rules, COVID-19 rushes in to fill the void." "It really does feel like the USA has given up." As President Trump said on Mar 23 with his occasional disturbing honesty, "The US wasn't meant to be locked down". 

Many US states including California are showing  'rampant' new daily records in cases. Seven states including Texas have record hospitalisations, which are increasing 'faster than ever before' . In the first sign of relenting rapid re-opening, Texas Governor Abbott, one of the first to push for re-opening, is urging people to stay at home. None of this is surprising - it just means that the New York level of epidemic is starting to arrive in other states but has been held down for a while by lockdown. 

Without a vaccine, it is hard to see the USA getting out of this short of herd immunity, which would take several years and mean several million deaths (as predicted in early April). However, new deaths are falling at the moment. The IHME model is forecasting only 146,000 deaths by 4 August. Only in the two large states New York and California are deaths over 40 per day at the moment. 

Victorian minor outbreak

The most heavily quarantined State of Australia, Victoria, has had a number of 'family clusters' as the state has come out of lockdown - in one, family members in five separate houses have been infected after celebratory gatherings. One of the family members was a guard at the Stamford Plaza, a quarantine hotel. 300 troops have been deployed  'in a desperate bid' to help manage these quarantine hotels. A second round of panic buying of toilet paper and hand sanitiser is occurring, and supermarkets have re-instituted limits.

Some shopping centres such as Chadstone have become packed - 70,000 shoppers were there on Saturday 21 June and not paying much attention to social distancing. People have been combining shopping trips with 'going to get tested'. 

Residents have been told not to move out of five municipality "hotspots" in Melbourne. The Premier Mr Andrews said more than half the state’s cases since April had been transmitted inside homes. Three persons who attended the Black Lives Matter rally on June 6 became infected. Other States have issued warnings about travelling to Victoria. 

South Australia, Tasmania and the two Territories are clear of the virus, Queensland is close. Western Australia still has odd cases, but is dropping all restrictions (subject to about 50% capacity in stadiums) while keeping a 'hard border' closure.

Risk factors and symptoms

It has been known since the beginning that coronavirus hits hard on those with underlying conditions such diabetes or heart disease. A study showed rates of hospitalisation were six times higher and rates of death were 12 times higher among COVID-19 patients with underlying conditions. Diabetes damages the immune system and makes cytokine storms more likely. COVID-19 damages the heart of one in five patients, including some with no history of heart complaints.   

Low incomes are also a major predictor of the infection rate in the US. People on (low income) Medicaid are four times more likely to contract the disease.

Two small studies have identified baldness as a risk factor among men. Levels of androgens may be involved.

One in three patients report a severe decline in smell and taste. Prince Charles says COVID-19 has left him 'unable to smell' three months later.

An episode of "Four Corners" has highlighted the tragedy of old people dying helplessly while their relatives agitate and wait outside an aged care centre hoping for a glimpse. Similar scenes  has probably been occurring in a thousand facilities around the world. These centres are neither laid out or staffed for quarantine or equipped for treatment of serious illness. Neither are many second-level hospitals without containment facilities.     

There has been another attempt to show considerably more infections in USA than reported in statistics. In March, apparently a giant spike in influenza-like illnesses occurred, suggesting up to 8.7 million  Americans were infected instead of the recorded 100,000. This could make sense - case mortality in New York was a world record at over 25% in March -April. As elsewhere it is probably really around 1 percent - so it seems likely that only 1 in 25 symptomatic covid patients was tested there. Maybe the correct number infected in New York is in fact 2.5 million, with more in surrounding states. This would be about a 30% infection rate, suggesting the lockdown didn't do much, performed too late. 

Minks and ferrets have similar respiratory systems to humans, and have been used in animal testing of vaccines. It appears the disease can be caught from minks. A herd of mink are being slaughtered.

A new anti-viral drug tested in Australia has significant blocking action against coronavirus.

Response

In New Zealand, which has eradicated the virus, there have been reports that isolation facilities are not functioning properly. It is costing $4000 per person for 'managed isolation' and the government is considering charging. Nurses are being insulted, children are running riot in the hallways, and some are refusing tests. This follows an unfortunate incident where two infected sisters were allowed to leave to attend a funeral. International and domestic crews are also not being separated.

Widespread testing has followed the rallies in Minnesota - and the results have shown only about 1% are infected, similar to the expected background level for community transmission. It appears that outdoor transmission while wearing masks is uncommon.  

President Trump has stopped many nonimmigrant visas including those for highly skilled tech workers, research scholars, and more. IT has depended on the latter for many years. The administration says the move will give US workers access to an additional 525,000 jobs.

Saudi Arabia will drastically reduce the number of people involved in the annual hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Usually 2.5 million people attend, but this year it will not exceed 10,000.

Spain re-opened its borders on June 21 as its state of emergency ended, and people can now move freely. It still has about 300 new cases per day, which does not bode well.

Geopolitical

Organisers tested positive amid superspreader fears at a Trump rally in Tulsa Oklahoma. The  rally was in a huge auditorium. The President was shocked at endless rows of empty seats, and the rally has been described as a failure.

Russia has installed 'special disinfection tunnels' for visitors to President Putin at his home and in the Kremlin.. 

Economy

The IMF has lowered its economic projections for the world economy, which were already the worst since the Great Depression. They now see it shrinking by 5%. The reduction is due to lengthier lockdowns and continued social distancing  

835,000 jobs have been lost in Australia, lifting the jobless rate to 7.1 per cent. Under-utilisation rates for the workforce have increased much more rapidly. PM Morrison says it will take two years to 'get back where we were before'. Youth unemployment reached 16.1%.

Retail turnover in Australia in May recovered the record loss in April, with sales rising by 16.3%, an all-time record. This means a 5.3% increase in retail sales over May 2019, double the usual annual rate.  

The Australian national airline Qantas has grounded all overseas flights until October, following a statement that Australia's borders will likely be closed to 2021. In a shock move, Qantas has sacked 6000 staff, will extend stand down for 15,000 more and will ground at least 100 aircraft for a year, saving $15b in costs. CEO Alan Joyce says airlines will all be restructuring to become "leaner and more competitive" in the face of much smaller operations.

This would normally be a world headline - but under COVID it is just part of the early background noise of the economic shock.

New York City has lost $9 billion in taxes through the pandemic, and may have to lay off 22,000 workers. It is also proposing to quarantine entry from the new hotspots. [some time ago Pandemicia suggested that New York would soon be the safest place in America].

The US financial industry is likely to drop bonuses by 15-20% and lay off many workers.

US cities have been declining in population for about 5 years, after a sharp rise in 2010-15. Problems with the cities, especially New York,  have led many of those who are able to do so to vacate to summer homes.  The greater space of suburbia may also prove more attractive and the 50-year move to densify cities may now have run its course.

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