24 July Pandemicia coronavirus report #35
Epidemic
Globally, cases continue to make records, with 280,000 new confirmed cases yesterday. Mexico, India and Brazil made new records, and the same is occurring at a lower level for Japan and other Asian countries, and in the Balkans and central Asia. Mexico has passed Italy in deaths. Spain is rising again and a second outbreak will ensue. Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria and Canada do not look very good. Italy, France and Germany are holding steady with 300-1200 cases per day. China's daily cases have gone over 100 for the first time in three months.
About half of all cases reported so far are from the USA, Brazil and India.
If this is indeed the first pandemic that could have been stopped, as the WHO announced on 1 February, the global score is about 3 out of 10, while the official score for the virus is nearly 5 million. Even highly prepared countries seem unable to stop or even slow the virus, except by the 'mediaeval' lockdown method.
About half of all cases reported so far are from the USA, Brazil and India.
If this is indeed the first pandemic that could have been stopped, as the WHO announced on 1 February, the global score is about 3 out of 10, while the official score for the virus is nearly 5 million. Even highly prepared countries seem unable to stop or even slow the virus, except by the 'mediaeval' lockdown method.
Victoria
While for Australia as a whole the outbreak is slightly less than in March, the Victorian secondary outbreak has been considerably worse than the first. It is mostly community transmission, it has made its way into a large number of aged care centres, and it is also taking longer to bring under control. Lockdown was two weeks ago but only in the last two days has it begun to look like new cases are falling (this is typical of what happened in Europe back in March, when it took about two weeks for lockdown to work).Counts of deaths through to the 1st week of April in Australia are showing an excess of deaths of 624 over what was expected during the early epidemic. Coronavirus may have taken more lives than thought
A regional outbreak has been reported in Colac - the first significant outbreak in a country town in Australia. Half the cases are associated with the Australian Lamb Company. Personally, I find all these meatworks cases most peculiar, and wonder if the raw meat itself is acting as a conduit.
It is quite surprising that the State seemed to learn so little from the first outbreak - perhaps it was all too easy last time and only now is the reality of COVID and the organisation and the sacrifices that need to be made to block it from the most vulnerable are being underlined. In particular, just as everywhere else in the world, the poor and careless arrangements made for the elderly using casual staff that work across multiple locations are bearing unpleasant fruit, with many aged care homes now infected.
USA
The USA has just passed 4 million cases.and is still charting a logarithmic course though much more slowly than at the beginning. This is not something that will end soon. California has more cases than New York state, and Florida and Texas are also overhauling it. These three states all have more than 10,000 new cases per day. Many states are at maximum and rising. Illinois is heading for a second breakout, and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington and Indiana are having one. The only states that have it under control are the original New England/New York locations. Of the American protectorates, only Samoa has not had cases.A new round of serology tests has shown that 24% of the population in New York had antibodies, but it is more like 2% everywhere else.
Medical
A Chinese study has shown that eight weeks after recovery, antibody levels fell to undetectable levels in 40% of asymptomatic people and 13% of symptomatic people. The half-life for antibodies is about This is not a good sign for either the "herd immunity" proponents or the "just wait for the vaccine" suppression advocates
A retrospective analysis of more than 11,000 stored respiratory samples collected starting Jan. 1 showed no positive tests for COVID-19 until Feb. 21 in Washington state. The virus was already circulating but at a level below the epidemiological radar. The results discount the possibility there was coronavirus in the USA before mid January.
Opioid drug overdoses have increased by over 50% in parts of the USA. Fentanyl is the most common drug involved. In Australia, as expected, the use of festival-type drugs has diminished but home-based drugs are being used more.
A retrospective analysis of more than 11,000 stored respiratory samples collected starting Jan. 1 showed no positive tests for COVID-19 until Feb. 21 in Washington state. The virus was already circulating but at a level below the epidemiological radar. The results discount the possibility there was coronavirus in the USA before mid January.
Opioid drug overdoses have increased by over 50% in parts of the USA. Fentanyl is the most common drug involved. In Australia, as expected, the use of festival-type drugs has diminished but home-based drugs are being used more.
Response
Ninety percent of those taking tests in July did not self-isolate in Australia, and 50% did not isolate while waiting for results.
Economy
There was a big spike in homes under offer and not sold in March, as buyers pulled out of deals and banks tightened.
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