3 July Pandemicia coronavirus report #31
Epidemic
This period has been event-filled. The statements by WHO and others that the pandemic was really only just starting have been proven correct in a number of respects.
World cases have passed ten million and are curving upwards at over 200,000 per day. Total deaths passed 500,000, which is double the average number of annual influenza deaths.
Latin
America, with 8 percent of the world's population, accounted for almost half of
all coronavirus-related deaths in the past two weeks. Deaths are about 1600 per day, and around 1500 in North America. Both Americas have an average 54,000 new cases per day, but the north is rising fast and the south is steady.
In South America, the epidemic is accelerating in Argentina, Columbia and Mexico, but is slowing in Chile and Peru. In Ecuador, which had one of the first outbreaks in South America and bodies piled up on the streets of the main port Guayaquil, the focus has moved to the capital Quito high in the Andes. Mortality rates are among the highesty in the world, although the statistics are poorly recorded. As in April, bodies are stacked in cardboard boxes slumped in wheelchairs and piled in mortuaries everywhere. The government has mandated that the population must use an app that collects a great deal of personal information, and the always bolshie Ecuadorians are mounting constitutional challenges.
New cases in the USA are rising as fast as they were at the beginning and are now over 50,000 a day, any pretence of controlling the pandemic has been lost. Some of the worst-hit states are Florida (10,000 per day, up 15x in June), Texas (8000 per day, up 6x), California (7500 per day, up 3x), Arizona (4000 per day, up 7x), Georgia (3500 per day, 5x). Apart from California, these are the states that agitated most strongly to discontinue restrictions. Texas and Florida have ordered bars to close again. Hundreds of Phoenix residents sat in line for hours Saturday at an overwhelmed drive-through testing site.
In South America, the epidemic is accelerating in Argentina, Columbia and Mexico, but is slowing in Chile and Peru. In Ecuador, which had one of the first outbreaks in South America and bodies piled up on the streets of the main port Guayaquil, the focus has moved to the capital Quito high in the Andes. Mortality rates are among the highesty in the world, although the statistics are poorly recorded. As in April, bodies are stacked in cardboard boxes slumped in wheelchairs and piled in mortuaries everywhere. The government has mandated that the population must use an app that collects a great deal of personal information, and the always bolshie Ecuadorians are mounting constitutional challenges.
New cases in the USA are rising as fast as they were at the beginning and are now over 50,000 a day, any pretence of controlling the pandemic has been lost. Some of the worst-hit states are Florida (10,000 per day, up 15x in June), Texas (8000 per day, up 6x), California (7500 per day, up 3x), Arizona (4000 per day, up 7x), Georgia (3500 per day, 5x). Apart from California, these are the states that agitated most strongly to discontinue restrictions. Texas and Florida have ordered bars to close again. Hundreds of Phoenix residents sat in line for hours Saturday at an overwhelmed drive-through testing site.
Now, cases seem to be driven by young people coming out of lockdown and ignoring guidelines. More than a third of hospitalised Americans are aged 18-49. This shows the very bad effects when people in authority do not give firm and consistent messages.
Dozens of secret service agents who attended the abortive Trump Tulsa rally have been required to isolate when two of their number tested positive.
In the meantime, the epidemic has been more or less suppressed in the earliest sites - New York, New Jersey, and New England. New York has opened restaurants to outdoor seating as cases continue to fall.
The CDC has now done antibody tests in six areas and finds that the total infections are up to 10 times higher than reported. The proportion ranges from 7% in New York on April 1 to 2% in South Florida. These antibody tests all seem to give numbers that are too high - but the severe shortage of test kits may have been to blame for missing a large number of symptomatic cases.
The CDC has now done antibody tests in six areas and finds that the total infections are up to 10 times higher than reported. The proportion ranges from 7% in New York on April 1 to 2% in South Florida. These antibody tests all seem to give numbers that are too high - but the severe shortage of test kits may have been to blame for missing a large number of symptomatic cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kazakhstan recorded a mighty spike and had to reintroduce lockdown. Israel's 'second wave' is now worse than the first.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Peru and Chile have brought their epidemics under temporary control. Netherlands and Belgium are close to suppressing their epidemics, with about 50 cases a day. Malaysia has suppressed COVID. Switzerland suppressed the disease by late May but new cases have been rising.
Oddly, given they have done nothing, Belarus' cases have been falling for a month and are about a third of the maximum.
No-one has passed our two benchmarks China or the UK in cases for a week. New Zealand and most of the Australian States have eradicated the disease, though they are nervously watching the situation in Victoria and are keeping borders closed. This involves stopping people on interstate highways, and checking drivers licences on planes.
Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona says. This supports our assertion that it is 'not proved' that the virus started in China, it was simply first detected there because of their coronavirus expertise.
More than 1500 workers in a German meat processing plant in Gutersloh have tested positive. In Rone 122 people have been linked to a cluster case in a hospital. "As soon as we lowered our guard it hit us back".
Victoria
Starting from about June 17, Victoria found itself with a rapidly accelerating outbreak just as it was coming out of quarantine. It appears to have started with a guard at one of several quarantine hotels, who then went to various coming-out-of-quarantine family parties. The outbreak is now worse than the one in March. Cases are appearing all over the city, including schools and hospitals, and a few travellers to other States have tested positive. Most are from a single spreader. This is a significant outbreak and Victoria is said to be "on a knife's edge"; there are 440 active cases, 23 are hospitalised and six are in intensive care already. Community cases are being found in routine testing. Mobile testing vans are operational in six areas, testing about 20,000 a day.
Victoria is now at about the state of readiness that Korea was at the start of the pandemic in February, and is now confidently employing a similar test-trace-isolate response, with a partial city quarantine of ten postcode areas with 300,000 people that have returned to L3 lockdown status. The policing cost of trying to seal part of a city is very much higher than closing a whole city, though less damaging to the economy and morale. Over 50,000 tests per day are being conducted, accompanied by a door knocking effort throughout the affected areas. About ten thousand have disappointingly refused to be tested for various reasons - some citing conspiracy theories.
About 150 people in quarantine returning from travel are also refusing to take a test at the end of their fortnight. A survey in May found that 50% of householders broke quarantine, going to other people's houses or shopping for non-essential items.
Response
The decision to close Australia's borders to China, despite being obvious and necessary, was apparently made "against all advice". The closure stopped the China epidemic from arriving, but not the much larger one from Europe. If Australia had also closed its borders to Europe and America - and to its citizens abroad - there would never have been an epidemic and there would not be one now. It appears this piece of counter-intuitive and senseless advice from WHO and the epidemiological profession is largely responsible for the world pandemic.
Opportunist efforts to profiteer from the pandemic continue. At the national level, USA has bought virtually the whole world supply of the anti-viral Remdesvir, which has been shown to shorten the period in hospital. It will be provided at over $500 per vial to those sufficiently wealthy.
The initial Federal funding response has been extended once and is now being discontinued across the board. Project "America Strong" which was delivering free face masks has stopped just as the US epidemic really gets into its stride. Out of a starting number of 41 sites opened with Federal funding in March, 13 remained in operation in June across five states. The funding, which has provided kits, laboratory and call centre contracts to the sites, has now been discontinued.
The initial Federal funding response has been extended once and is now being discontinued across the board. Project "America Strong" which was delivering free face masks has stopped just as the US epidemic really gets into its stride. Out of a starting number of 41 sites opened with Federal funding in March, 13 remained in operation in June across five states. The funding, which has provided kits, laboratory and call centre contracts to the sites, has now been discontinued.
The death rate for black Chicagoans is 136 per 100,000 compared with around 50 for whites. In the early epidemic, seventy per cent of deaths in the city were among black Americans. Nearly 1 in 3 black Americans knows someone personally who has died form COVID-19, compared with 9% of whites.
Singapore is rolling out a contact tracing device for seniors without smartphones, which works on Bluetooth also.
China is "testing restaurant workers and delivery vehicles block by block" but have told people they may "take off their masks outdoors", Korea tells people to carry two types of mask for different social situations and has discouraged singing in public, Germany requires communities to crack down when numbers reach thresholds, Britain has local outbreak strategy called "Whack a mole". It is agreed that (short of eradication which everyone seems to have forgotten) even the most successful countries will require a vaccine to declare victory and "granular intelligence is needed in a timely fashion".
China is "testing restaurant workers and delivery vehicles block by block" but have told people they may "take off their masks outdoors", Korea tells people to carry two types of mask for different social situations and has discouraged singing in public, Germany requires communities to crack down when numbers reach thresholds, Britain has local outbreak strategy called "Whack a mole". It is agreed that (short of eradication which everyone seems to have forgotten) even the most successful countries will require a vaccine to declare victory and "granular intelligence is needed in a timely fashion".
Community
While it has been the subject of continuing speculation, informal reports and funding submissions, a survey has finally reported elevated levels of psychological distress in COVID-affected communities (the average has moved from 3.9% of adults to 13.9%). Oddly, the highest level and the greatest increase in distress was among young people, who find the distancing and the existential and financial threat of COVID the hardest to take. People over 55 have the lowest levels of distress.A US survey found that over 50% of people with the disease don't know where they got it and don't know anyone else that has it. This strengthens the case for a high proportion of 'community transmission'.
Some citizens are using fraudulent "face mask fliers" to avoid having to wear masks.
Some citizens are using fraudulent "face mask fliers" to avoid having to wear masks.
Several studies have blamed teh US failure to contain the virus on a media
ecosystem that amplifies misinformation, entertains conspiracy theories and
discourages audiences from taking concrete steps. Unfortunately - we believe it goes deeper than this, to a failure of confidence in authority throughout US society that has been obvious for more than thirty years.
Global distancing
.
Declining global flights, February and May 2020
In March, the United States extended its travel ban from China to most of Europe. The European Union imposed broad entry restrictions on non-E.U. citizens and residents. In April, global flights dropped to levels not seen since the 1970s, as nations from Uruguay to Indonesia slapped restrictions on foreign arrivals. By May, every country in the world had imposed entry restrictions.
Illegal border crossings also slowed. On the U.S.-Mexico border, the number of people apprehended or expelled by the U.S. Border Patrol fell 47 percent from March. The number of irregular border crossings along Europe’s main migratory routes fell by 75 percent in April.
World trade is projected to fall by 13% this year. Announcements of new investment projects and cross-border mergers and acquisitions both dropped by more than half year-over-year. The amount of new renewable energy added to the global grid will fall by 13%, the first deceleration since 2000.
Remittances to low and middle income countries will decline by 20% this year. Economic refugees from poor countries are currently heading home, but the impact there will soon be hard and the flow may reverse.
Illegal border crossings also slowed. On the U.S.-Mexico border, the number of people apprehended or expelled by the U.S. Border Patrol fell 47 percent from March. The number of irregular border crossings along Europe’s main migratory routes fell by 75 percent in April.
World trade is projected to fall by 13% this year. Announcements of new investment projects and cross-border mergers and acquisitions both dropped by more than half year-over-year. The amount of new renewable energy added to the global grid will fall by 13%, the first deceleration since 2000.
Remittances to low and middle income countries will decline by 20% this year. Economic refugees from poor countries are currently heading home, but the impact there will soon be hard and the flow may reverse.
Can't reduce China dependence
The world is 'hooked ' on Chinese efficient, low cost production, despite their dislike of the regime. Attempts to repatriate jobs and production are not so easy. For example, the Atlanta company G95 makes apparel — hoodies, scarfs — fitted with a special filtration technology ideal for pandemic times. When the Chinese suppliers were locked down, the firm attempted to move production to Michigan. The effort quickly bogged down in production delays, poor quality and soaring costs.The cost of making the company logo alone jumped from 20 cents in China to $3.40 in the United States. Prices had to be raised and the profit margin still took a hit. They restarted production in China in May.
The owner, Carlton Solle, said, “At the end of the day, the thing the Chinese do really well is know how to mass-produce items. Trying to shift to the U.S. was a monumental task for us as a company."
National economies
The unemployment rate in the USA has fallen to 'only' 11.5%. Estimates are that about 40% of the millions of jobs lost will be permanent.
A report from the Grattan Institute has called for an extra $70 billion in stimulus to create 500,000 extra jobs in Australia. All other economic initiatives should be put on hold.
Odd spot - Darwin Award
More than a million stimulus payments in the USA were sent to dead people.
Odd spot - Darwin Award
"You cant stop living your life just because of something"
Young people are throwing COVID-19 parties in Tuscaloosa Alabama. They sell tickets, encourage people who have tested positive to attend, then give a cash prize for the first attendee to test positive.
Faded curtains award
Donald Trump has repeated his claim that testing is a "double edged sword. By making more tests, we get more cases", he says.More than a million stimulus payments in the USA were sent to dead people.
Comments
Post a Comment