31 July Pandemicia coronavirus report #36
Epidemic
The news is generally bad.
India has passed 1.5 million cases. It still shows less deaths than Italy and Mexico even though it has 4-6 times the cases; probably due to inadequate reporting though its young population also helps to reduce deaths.
Iran and the UK passed 300,000 cases. Egypt, Indonesia and Kazakhstan passed China on cases, making China #27, and Philippines will pass tomorrow. Mexico, Peru and Chile passed the UK on cases some time ago, and South Africa has passed them all, making the UK (the highest in Europe) #10. Brazil had its highest daily tally yesterday, nearly 70,000.
India has passed 1.5 million cases. It still shows less deaths than Italy and Mexico even though it has 4-6 times the cases; probably due to inadequate reporting though its young population also helps to reduce deaths.
Iran and the UK passed 300,000 cases. Egypt, Indonesia and Kazakhstan passed China on cases, making China #27, and Philippines will pass tomorrow. Mexico, Peru and Chile passed the UK on cases some time ago, and South Africa has passed them all, making the UK (the highest in Europe) #10. Brazil had its highest daily tally yesterday, nearly 70,000.
The new blisters in Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium are continuing upwards, but Italy still has the disease controlled. Japan now has a full-blooded epidemic.
About the only good news is that the USA may have plateaued on its second surge at around 75,000 cases a day. However daily cases are still over 70,000 and it has passed 150,000 deaths. A death is occurring every minute as the existing infection takes its toll, and a number of states are recording new highs for daily deaths.
About the only good news is that the USA may have plateaued on its second surge at around 75,000 cases a day. However daily cases are still over 70,000 and it has passed 150,000 deaths. A death is occurring every minute as the existing infection takes its toll, and a number of states are recording new highs for daily deaths.
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| Areas of COVID activity, USA 31 July |
Response
The American Federation of Teachers has warned the government to expect strikes as a last resort if teachers are forced to return to unsafe classrooms.
Australia
Although Australia was fairly well prepared and managed to quash one epidemic, a second "blister" has gotten out of control. The country appeared to be effectively only one case from COVID-extinction when it apparently spread from a single security guard at one of the hotels for returned international travellers in quarantine, where they have been staying in the middle of the city at government expense. Many of these guards are only teenagers, hired by several large firms through unknown subcontractors using Whatsapp impromptu calls and without any kind of training or protection.
Even more than this profound lapse, the fact that it has passed so rapidly into aged care homes is breathtaking at this late stage, with 769 cases among residents and staff. The lack of preparation in aged care homes after so many earlier and overseas examples of how bad it can get and how necessary it is are just unforgivable. "The aged-care system is simply not fit for purpose in normal times and so was inevitably destined to fail when under this sort of extreme pressure."
After telling developing countries how they must do this for 30 years, Western governments seem to have lost the ability to design and conduct strategies (which ultimately is the subject of this blog).
Even more than this profound lapse, the fact that it has passed so rapidly into aged care homes is breathtaking at this late stage, with 769 cases among residents and staff. The lack of preparation in aged care homes after so many earlier and overseas examples of how bad it can get and how necessary it is are just unforgivable. "The aged-care system is simply not fit for purpose in normal times and so was inevitably destined to fail when under this sort of extreme pressure."
After telling developing countries how they must do this for 30 years, Western governments seem to have lost the ability to design and conduct strategies (which ultimately is the subject of this blog).
Hong Kong
Hong Kong had several weeks of crowded bars and beaches, and is now setting records for new cases. The government has warned its hospital system could face collapse. It has been through several phases. The first outbreak in late Jan was quickly quashed, the second occurred when students and residents started returning from Europe in March - brought back under control by strict border measures . It even used electronic bracelets to track new arrivals and make sure they stayed at home. Hong Kong went for weeks without a locally transmitted case. It appears the third outbreak is because of the large number of quarantine exemptions - "Hong Kong had exempted about 200,000 people, including seafarers, aircrew and executives of companies listed on the stock exchange, from quarantine. It said the exceptions were needed to ensure normal daily operations continued in Hong Kong, or because their travel was necessary to the city's economic development."
If you are serious about quarantine - there absolutely can be no exemptions and claiming the economy made you do it is just not good enough. Half-quarantine is no use at all. Travellers need to be absolutely excluded or if not, they need to be absolutely locked up and monitored in a remote location. COVID takes no prisoners and the loss of political will to really seriously quarantine is one of the most disturbing parts of this whole episode. Quarantine is far far cheaper than stay-at-home yet for some reason governments seem to think the latter is more acceptable.
One must suspect that 'greasing the wheels of capitalism' is the source of this prejudice, that seems to have become almost universal.
Geopolitical
The battle for a vaccine has started to assume dimensions of the Cold War tussle, with Russia saying it will produce a tested vaccine by September, while the general consensus is that none of the 300 vaccine candidates can be produced before mid-2021.
Other main candidates are
- the Moderna (US) RNA vaccine
- Oxford/Astragenica loads the spike protein on a chimp adenovirus to develop antibodies
- CanSina (China) based on an adenovirus (common cold)
- Sinovac (China) is an inactivated vaccine
- University of Queensland/CEPI molecular clamp.
Unfortunately the whole exercise seems to have become less about saving humanity and more about the multibillion dollar sales payoff from the first to succeed.
Economy
Economic numbers are emerging for the June quarter - and they are as expected some of the worst on record. The US recorded a 9.5% decline, considerably worse than in any quarter of the Great Depression.
The CPI in Australia has fallen for only the third time since it began to be calculated in 1948.
Australia has easily disposed of $15 billion worth of new government 31-year bonds at the once unthinkably low rate of 1.94%. They already sold a total $36 billion of shorter term bonds in May and July. Bids were more than double the amount on offer.
The Spanish economy depends heavily on British arrivals, and these have all been cancelled because of the new outbreak.
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