7 July Pandemicia coronavirus report #32
Epidemic
So much is happening with the major part of the pandemic outbreak now fully under way that we have gone back to 4-day reports.
One thing this pandemic has underlined is how closely related all our species is. A pathogen that is dangerous anywhere is equally dangerous anywhere else among any other people.
One thing this pandemic has underlined is how closely related all our species is. A pathogen that is dangerous anywhere is equally dangerous anywhere else among any other people.
Globally, cases are increasing by a million every five days. India has roared past Russia into second place. We expect it ultimately be the site of the major part of the world pandemic, as it is very heavily populated, has the world's largest slums and is relatively poorly equipped medically for such an outbreak. The 700,000 cases and 20,000 deaths recorded in India are already well short of the true figures.
Cases in Peru and Chile have both convincingly passed the UK benchmark in only a couple of days (and Mexico will overhaul Britain in about four days). Peru and Chile combined have only recorded a third the number of deaths of Britain - and they are both three weeks past their inflection point. The 'lower' level of deaths is partly because the pandemic is at an earlier stage in Latin America and the population is younger - but it does underline how poorly Europe managed to ramp up its testing capability in March, even with months of warning. Cases all over Europe were without a doubt very much higher in March than the recorded level, with the testing shortfall delivering average case fatality rates as high as 15% in that month, compared with 3.5% and 2% in Peru and Chile today. The true infection fatality rate - depending on the susceptibility of the population - is somewhere below 1%.
Argentina and Egypt will both overhaul China in a few days, and Sweden will also within a week. The original Chinese epidemic is beginning to look like a small blip.
Another disturbing feature is the beginning of 'second waves' all over the world (more fairly described as second blisters as they bubble out of an existing infection). The following countries have emergent blisters as they open doors after a reasonably successful suppression - Australia (Victoria), the Low Countries, UAR, the Philippines, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Japan, Greece. The second blister outbreaks in Australia, Israel, former Yugoslavia and Morocco are already bigger than the first.
Argentina and Egypt will both overhaul China in a few days, and Sweden will also within a week. The original Chinese epidemic is beginning to look like a small blip.
Another disturbing feature is the beginning of 'second waves' all over the world (more fairly described as second blisters as they bubble out of an existing infection). The following countries have emergent blisters as they open doors after a reasonably successful suppression - Australia (Victoria), the Low Countries, UAR, the Philippines, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Japan, Greece. The second blister outbreaks in Australia, Israel, former Yugoslavia and Morocco are already bigger than the first.
The whole strategy of trying to 'suppress' the epidemic is (and always was) under considerable doubt as it means these countries hang under a sword indefinitely in the hope an effective vaccine or other treatment may be found, before their epidemic gets out of control. It does mean all these countries have not really taken the pandemic seriously and deep down believe they can live with it. Still, the early lockdowns did save lives at least in the shorter term while waiting for improved treatments.
There are really only two eventual outcomes - elimination or herd immunity. China and New Zealand achieved elimination, which is the only one that really makes sense - yet it was rejected immediately by the epidemiologist advisers to the WHO who have a great deal to answer for.
Another attack on the academic orthodoxy has been made by over 100 scientists who say that WHO has not warned about the potential for the disease to be carried on air streams for distances - responsible for superspreading episodes. This is hardly surprising as it was already known about MERS. What is surprising is that the WHO doesn't seems to know about it.
Another attack on the academic orthodoxy has been made by over 100 scientists who say that WHO has not warned about the potential for the disease to be carried on air streams for distances - responsible for superspreading episodes. This is hardly surprising as it was already known about MERS. What is surprising is that the WHO doesn't seems to know about it.
Response
With Federal testing sites closing in the USA, some local drive-in sites have been charging up to $1600 a test. A free day's testing announced in Phoenix had lines of cars for miles, and continued until they ran out of supplies.
In California 19 counties were shut back down covering more than 70% of California's population. One diabetic 51 year old man who went to a re-opening party where someone knowingly attended with the virus died soon afterwards. Officials in California are saying they never should have re-opened.
A higher proportion of patients are surviving ventilators as doctors become more skilled at using them. It looks as if about 37% die now, compared with up to 80% at the beginning of the epidemic. There is a general agreement that they do save lives.
An antibody study in Spain has shown only about 5% of the population have had the virus so far. This is similar to other studies - and shows that Europe is still wide open to reinfection.
Victoria
A state of extreme emergency now exists in Victoria. For weeks now, almost all Australian cases have been in Victoria. As of today, when new infections rose exponentially to a record 191 cases, the authorities imposed a L3 lockdown for the whole city for six weeks. The border with NSW has been closed from tonight. Australia's busiest border crossing at Albury-Wodonga is problematic as many residents work on the other side. NSW has also had 10 cases. NSW has said that Victoria should bear the cost of border closure.
Melbourne may be the first city to impose a second lockdown tougher than the first. Victoria has now declared war on COVID-19 in the extreme Chinese fashion (after saying in March this was not possible in a democracy) by imposing a total L5 lockdown on 3000 residents of ten high-rise public housing towers in Melbourne. Residents are unable to leave for essentials or exercise. The lockdown is nominally for 14 days while residents are tested, and it is now in its 3rd day.
They are kept in place by 500 police officers per shift. The public housing high rises, built in the 1960s when this was fashionable, have been a source of controversy ever since, as possibly being unsuitable for low-income people with children. Now they have been described as "vertical cruise ships". Many of the residents are immigrants with limited English. A thousand Foodbank hampers have been provided for residents, along with 6000 meals and 4500 pastries - but many residents have so far received nothing.
The tower lockdown was unannounced, and residents are saying communications have been "terrible" and, "we don't know what we've done to deserve this." One man attacked and bit a police officer when prevented from leaving his room. Many donations of essentials have been submitted by charities and the public, but last night they were turned away form one tower because the authorities were unprepared.
Two men died overnight. Seven staff of the busy Northern Hospital have tested positive. Our original Pandemicia estimate of 1 April that there would only be 120 CV deaths in Australia (there have been 106) is no longer doing so well.
Geopolitical
The USA is gearing up for the November presidential elections. With little option, Trump strategists are betting that the US electorate will 'get used' to an uncontrolled pandemic with 100,000 new cases a day. The Biden camp will continue to paint Trump as uninformed, incapable of empathy and concerned only about his own political standing. Fifty-seven
former government scientists and public health officials have demanded the Trump administration stop
politicizing the pandemic.
A survey shows that many Americans think this is the lowest point in US history - with justification. The lack of preparation and bungled action for the New Orleans hurricane and 9-11 shrink into insignificance.
Economy
Some US firms are hiring their own epidemiologists to reassure the public that they know what they are doing. As we have pointed out, the record of the epidemiology profession is extremely poor in the current outbreak.
As is normal in crises, many Australians are retiring credit-card debt - which fell by $1.64 billion in May, an all time record - and $5.8 billion over the year. The number of credit card accounts has also fallen by 8%. Some of this was funded from withdrawn super balances.
Environment
The United Nations has warned that 75% of emergent diseases are zoonotic, and we can expect an accelerating rate of emergence from wild animal populations because of habitat clearing, the demand for protein and climate change. What they do not report - because it is politically charged - is that all these things are due to overpopulation. The globe was not meant to support 8 billion people with industrialised levels of demand, the ecosystem is groaning, and it will keep striking back.
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