18 August Pandemicia coronavirus report #38
Epidemic
There has been a 12 day gap since our last report, though plenty has been happening in COVIDland.
To catch up - yes the world passed 20 million cases, US 5 million, Brazil 3 million about 10 days ago. They are all about 10% higher now. Brazil set a new world record with over 90,000 cases in a day.
Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Bolivia, Ecuador, Israel and Egypt have passed China in cases, with Dominican Republic soon to follow. China, the site of the original recognised outbreak, is now #32 in cases and #27 in deaths.
Most of the southern states in the USA passed their peak several weeks ago. The midwest states are plateauing. Only California still has heavy quarantine restrictions - it has 1000 new cases a day and over 600,000 cases.
To catch up - yes the world passed 20 million cases, US 5 million, Brazil 3 million about 10 days ago. They are all about 10% higher now. Brazil set a new world record with over 90,000 cases in a day.
Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Bolivia, Ecuador, Israel and Egypt have passed China in cases, with Dominican Republic soon to follow. China, the site of the original recognised outbreak, is now #32 in cases and #27 in deaths.
Most of the southern states in the USA passed their peak several weeks ago. The midwest states are plateauing. Only California still has heavy quarantine restrictions - it has 1000 new cases a day and over 600,000 cases.
As it has become obvious that some apparent falls in daily cases are actually due to falls in testing (eg USA) the focus has moved to deaths. US daily deaths are still well below the New York blister - but give it time. India's are about the same as the USA at 1000 per day - but give it time.
A Korean study has confirmed that the 40% of asymptomatic people carry heavy loads of virus particles, as many as ill people and for as long, making it probable they can cause infections.
Pandemicia was the first to record the top of Australia's first Covid blister (we prefer this to 'wave', which is a misleading analogy). We noted using the same pattern recognition we used on April 1 that the second blister had also topped on 30 July. two days before the L4 lockdown came in (this is usual as things always look worst just as they are easing). Which means the infections peaked on 25 July. This time, another biostatistician has confirmed it.
In April we hypothesized here that prior coronavirus infections (eg common cold) may cause the immune system to act against the virus, helping to explain why some people don't get it and others react to serology tests. This has now been confirmed.
In April we hypothesized here that prior coronavirus infections (eg common cold) may cause the immune system to act against the virus, helping to explain why some people don't get it and others react to serology tests. This has now been confirmed.
Response
The great difficulty everyone has been having with quarantine does superficially support what WHO epidemiologists were saying at the beginning - that closed borders don't work - but they certainly don't work if you are not serious about quarantine, which has a small cost next to the huge economic cost of repeated lockdowns. Our ancestors found it simple enough - you put infected people far away from population centres with properly-paid staff who lived onsite. This simple concept seems far too difficult for today's governments who almost without exception have put sick people at home or in downtown hotels with untrained casuals without PPE to watch them. This just beggars belief.
The Western Australians are talking about repurposing Rottnest Island for incoming Bali expatriates running out of visa. Some of these have already headed to Europe rather than face sizeable hotel bills in Australia. First good sense on quarantine we've heard - though they are nervous about the distance to hospital. Still - as we have already discussed, hospital is not actually all that useful for COVID as there is no treatment. It's easy enough to place a few medical staff and respirators on site.
An Australian guest fellow in Brookings Institute writes
That the pandemic occurred is not Trump’s fault. The utter unpreparedness of the United States for a pandemic is Trump’s fault.
He states the Trump administration was not responsible for America's social and medical morass, which was decades in the making - but outlines how it undercut previous attempts to make the country pandemic-ready by deliberately cutting funding to critical institutions and then playing down any risk.
The Western Australians are talking about repurposing Rottnest Island for incoming Bali expatriates running out of visa. Some of these have already headed to Europe rather than face sizeable hotel bills in Australia. First good sense on quarantine we've heard - though they are nervous about the distance to hospital. Still - as we have already discussed, hospital is not actually all that useful for COVID as there is no treatment. It's easy enough to place a few medical staff and respirators on site.
An Australian guest fellow in Brookings Institute writes
That the pandemic occurred is not Trump’s fault. The utter unpreparedness of the United States for a pandemic is Trump’s fault.
He states the Trump administration was not responsible for America's social and medical morass, which was decades in the making - but outlines how it undercut previous attempts to make the country pandemic-ready by deliberately cutting funding to critical institutions and then playing down any risk.
Rumours of parties continuing to be held despite lockdown led Los Angeles to threaten to cut off water and power to these 'nightclubs in the hills'.
Political
Although the Premiers of Victoria and New South Wales have done a wonderful job informing the public and keeping abreast of the situation, the press has now shifted to blame-and-shame for the several serious mistakes that have been made (Ruby Princess, quarantine hotels). The Premiers have had to do public mea culpas.
The original lid placed on the pandemic in Australia seems to have been more good luck than good management - this time it has gone straight into the aged homes in Victoria although there have been many months available for preparation. Pandemicia originally forecast 100 deaths for Australia and there were 102. Now, in the middle of the second blister (which has about three times the volume of the first), there are already over 400 deaths, almost all aged-care - with many more to come.
The original lid placed on the pandemic in Australia seems to have been more good luck than good management - this time it has gone straight into the aged homes in Victoria although there have been many months available for preparation. Pandemicia originally forecast 100 deaths for Australia and there were 102. Now, in the middle of the second blister (which has about three times the volume of the first), there are already over 400 deaths, almost all aged-care - with many more to come.
Victoria is not alone. Despite preparation in the USA, age care homes have a 60% surge in cases in the month to mid-July, seeping through from heavily infected communities.
Economic and social
A school year like no other (August 10)
The opening of the school year in America has been chaotic like no other. No agreement has been reached on Federal plans for support. State administrations have changed their opinion week-to-week, sometimes completely reversing course. Plans for hybrid systems have been immediately ditched as infections mount. School districts have wildly different plans based on their geography, infection rates and partisanship. 55% of all urban districts have fully remote plans, and campuses are more likely to open in conservative communities. "We knew how to close schools, but we have no idea how to properly re-open schools". Teachers and parents are picketing against re-opening in some areas, while in others they say COVID is a farce.
The much higher rates of COVID-depression being observed among young people has been confirmed in many places - although they have far lower risk. A survey conducted by the CDC in June showed around 63% of 18-24 year olds had signs of depression or anxiety disorder, 25% reported starting or increased use of substances, and 11% reported serious thoughts of suicide. By comparison, older people had very little of each. Younger people seemed to have much more difficulty dealing with the idea of uncertain futures.
From the beginning, Pandemicia pointed to the perverse effects of neoliberalism and class divides in workers rights as making the response far harder than it needed to be. the casualization of the workforce has meant that many workers receive no benefits or sick leave, and have to keep working when they are ill. Others are forced to work in multiple locations in order to get a full time job equivalent and spread the virus.This is now being picked up in articles. Temporary immigrants have particularly suffered, with no government support or rights.
From the beginning, Pandemicia pointed to the perverse effects of neoliberalism and class divides in workers rights as making the response far harder than it needed to be. the casualization of the workforce has meant that many workers receive no benefits or sick leave, and have to keep working when they are ill. Others are forced to work in multiple locations in order to get a full time job equivalent and spread the virus.This is now being picked up in articles. Temporary immigrants have particularly suffered, with no government support or rights.
While jobs to the highest earners have almost all returned and the recession is over for the rich in the USA, only about half of jobs paying less than $20 an hour have returned. Trillions of dollars pumped into the economy by the Fed have been spent on house price rises and car purchases.
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