6 August coronavirus report #37

6 August Pandemicia coronavirus report #37

Epidemic

Columbia and Iran have passed the UK in cases, but only the Big Two are above UK in official deaths. Two US states, California and Florida, have now passed half a million cases, and there has been a sharp rise in the Midwest. The CDC predicts 11,000 cases per week into the future. It is going to be a long time before COVID has finished with the USA. 

Spain is back close to its first peak.   

In Chicago, a study has suggested that up to 15% of cases are related to prisoners moving in and out of Cook County jail.  

Philippines

In our most read post , four months ago we outlined how Philippines had done all the right things - in an authoritarian way, though with one of the most at-risk countries in the world it was going to be struggling. 

Although the Philippines followed textbook strategy perhaps better than anywhere except China in a way other countries might have sought to emulate, it was always going to be too difficult with such a dense population, such a large informal sector and without serious resources. Cases have now risen to 6000 per day, the country passed China at the end of July in total cases, Indonesia yesterday and will pass Canada tomorrow. Partly this is due to the country's enhanced testing capacity, but - the worst is coming.

Tens of millions of workers have been placed in lockdown again but the genie is out of the bottle. People are trapped in Manila airport without resources, unable to return to their homes in the provinces. 

Victoria

Empty Shelves Toorak Woolworths Sun 2 Aug

This week, Australia's first Level 4 lockdown was implemented in Melbourne, with all non-essential businesses closed, facemask wearing mandatory, a curfew, and only one person allowed out to get food. Childcare has been shut down, also gardening services although these are at an all time demand high. A State of Disaster has been declared, allowing the government to enforce new rules with hefty fines of $4500. panic buying began again last Sunday, with long queues. Meat plants are cutting output by a third, which is expected to lead to a shortage. Two Victorian abattoirs were visited by infected inspectors last month. One has led to an outbreak. There are 1186 active cases in 97 aged care centres. Typically, two thirds of these die. It is hard to understand how this could have happened so quickly, given the six months of warning Australia has had - a fully foreseeable tragedy. 

New South Wales continues to have traceable clusters, with 107 cases associated with Thai Rock Wetherill Park, 58 associated with the Crossroads Hotel and 50 associated with funeral events in Bankstown and surrounding suburbs and 32 liked to restaurants in Potts Point.

Response

A Chinese study has found, unsurprisingly, that your chance of catching coronavirus from an infected person on a train increases the longer and closer your exposure.

In lieu of centralised direction, six US states have formed a compact to solve the problem of testing delays.

Detector dogs are being employed at airports to catch asymptomatic cases.

A new 90 minute COVID test in the UK can also detect flu and other viruses.

Geopolitical

Belarus vs Russia

Better to die on your feet than live on your knees President Lukashenko

Belarus, a small landlocked country north of Ukraine between Poland and Russia, and described as 'Europe's last dictatorship'  shot to infamy as the only country deliberately doing nothing about COVID-19. Yet the President's vodka, saunas and tractor-driving cure seems to be paying off, if the statistics are to be believed. The disease seems to be almost under control with less than 100 cases per day - though independent commentators are saying the infection rate is the highest in Europe. 

In Russia, the President is essentially in isolation and although cases are slowly falling in a strict lockdown, there are still 5000 cases per day. Russian-built ventilators short-circuited and caught on fire in a hospital in St. Petersburg, killing six patients. Doctors are working overtime and don’t have enough PPE.  Many people are afraid to go outside, even for exercise, and domestic violence has been on the rise. Three doctors have fallen to their deaths from windows after criticising hospital authorities.   

The economic comparisons with Russia are also startling. While Russia has lost 10 million jobs and many billions of dollars, it is business as usual in Belarus. Its currency has gained 10% against the dollar, while the ruble has fallen 20%. Its otherwise unremarkable football league has gained a worldwide following from game-starved fans as the only one still playing to crowds, and is selling virtual tickets. 

Belarus has long been the only ally of Russia in the former USSR, and the only one that has kept Russian as the official language, but now tensions are developing since Russia withdrew many of its subsidies (especially fuel) early in the year. 

There have been mass rallies in support of his new challenger, who until May was a stay-at-home mum and the wife of a jailed blogger. She seeks to have political prisoners released and free elections held, pointing out that the Belarus GDP has in fact fallen by 25% in ten years. Lukashenko's defiant COVID attitude has also been subject to widespread condemnation. The elections will be held on Sunday and could provide a useful gauge of community attitudes to COVID-denial. 

The former pig farmer has been using his belligerent COVID-denier position as an election gimmick.The President arrested 33 Russian military contractors last week, whom he said were there to sow unrest. The Russians have asked for their return, but there are competing demands from Ukraine. 

Economy and social

The UN has called COVID19 a "generational catastrophe" and the "greatest disruption to education ever". In the USA, attempts to return to school have been thwarted. In Georgia's largest school district, 260 teachers were unable to return to work this week because they were in isolation. Support staff are worried about inconsistent safety protocols and maskless students jeopardising their health. In a number of major cities, all parties protested the return to school, carrying coffins and gravestones. 

A school superintendent in Arizona is a telling "Voice from the Pandemic" about the impossibility of what he is facing.

The cost of groceries in the USA has been rising at the fastest pace in decades because of severely disrupted supply chains.  A number of US manufacturing companies have been repurposing to produce masks in the face of huge demand. 

US Banks have made substantial provisions for loss and cut back various forms of riskier lending in preparation for a major series of defaults.

With a fivefold increase in demand, many in the USA have been waiting four months for unemployment claims to be processed without any cash support. Fortunately, rents are only a half what they are in Australia in most cities - but many of those laid off are now facing homelessness.

Anti-maskers have replaced anti-vaxxers as the new 'sovereign citizens'. A police officer had her head smashed into a concrete path by a woman in Victoria. Police were forced to break multiple car windows to get at people refusing to provide names and addresses. 

$15-$19 billion is expected to be knocked off GDP, and a further 250,000 workers stood down in Victoria - called "the biggest economic event in Australia's history". 

The high stock market in many countries remains a rather perplexing topic - and shows how much money is floating around looking for a home. Unless something happens to scare the market further, it will try to push higher on the back of governments printing money and online buying. Housing in Australia as the investment of choice is similar. 

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