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| COVID teeming in airway cells (balls) |
Pandemicia coronavirus report #40
Epidemic
USA passed 6 million cases, Brazil and India 4 million cases, Russia 1 million cases, Spain half a million, Germany which is suppressing a second smaller blister passed 250,000. . The UK has dropped to #14 as France passed it, but it is moving upwards on a second blister with nearly 2000 cases a day. Romania passed China, which has fallen to #35.
The Big Three (US, Brazil, India) have 60,000 to 80,000 cases per day. Countries with more than 10,000 cases a day are Spain, France, Peru, Colombia, Argentina. Hungary and Jamaica are beginning nasty outbreaks. Japan, Australia and Serbia have controlled their second blister.
The Big Three (US, Brazil, India) have 60,000 to 80,000 cases per day. Countries with more than 10,000 cases a day are Spain, France, Peru, Colombia, Argentina. Hungary and Jamaica are beginning nasty outbreaks. Japan, Australia and Serbia have controlled their second blister.
Held-back death figures in Australia have pushed our estimates towards the high end. There are already 748 deaths, compared with 102 at the end of the first blister.
Islands usually enjoy a considerable advantage. Many of the smaller ones have had only single sporadic cases. If they are vigilant about quarantining borders, they should be able to remain free of internal transmission.
Geopolitical
President Trump has moved to defund 'lawless cities' - all of which are Democrat, because of the "Black Lives Matter" protests.
Parts of the Australian population have become resentful about ongoing lockdowns. Anti-lockdown protesters have been arrested today in "Freedom day" demonstrations in Melbourne and Sydney.
Parts of the Australian population have become resentful about ongoing lockdowns. Anti-lockdown protesters have been arrested today in "Freedom day" demonstrations in Melbourne and Sydney.
A dozen cross-bench politicians in Victoria have been hit with a torrent of vicious and aggressive emails from lockdown-deniers to get them to vote against the government's plan to extend the state of emergency. The continued lockdown is costing the state $400m a day. A million Victorians are on Jobkeeper and 400,000 on Jobseeker,
Economy
Australian economic figures are showing (in line with other countries) the greatest recession since the Great Depression, with GDP down 7% in the June quarter. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told a parliament house press conference that in March his advisers were predicting a collapse three times as big in the June quarter – 20%. In fact social assistance benefits contributed 5%. Britain’s economy actually did collapse 20% in the June quarter; while the US economy fell by nearly 10%.
Consumer spending fell by 12.7%. The biggest fall was in transport costs 85% and hospitality 55%, but alcohol rose by more than 10%. The household savings ratio shot up from 2% to 20%, the level of the oil price crisis and wages boom in 1975.
Consumer spending fell by 12.7%. The biggest fall was in transport costs 85% and hospitality 55%, but alcohol rose by more than 10%. The household savings ratio shot up from 2% to 20%, the level of the oil price crisis and wages boom in 1975.
Work-from-home may be the lasting legacy of the pandemic. While there has been plenty of talk about it for 40 years, it has not happened till now - among higher paid, better educated workers, many of whom wish to continue. A British survey found that 88% of employees who worked at home during lockdown would like to continue doing so in some capacity, with 47% wanting to do so “often” or even all the time. Only 17% had returned to work in large cities in the UK, which have particularly unpleasant commutes, though more like 85% of office workers have returned in Spain and Italy.
On the one hand, workplaces have been shutting down in droves (eg Capital plc in the UK has closed 100). Takeup of new office space is down 80%. The share prices of major property development companies has fallen by 40%.
Even where businesses have re-opened, the hospitality industry is suffering the loss of long lunches and after-dinner drinkies. In the fourth quarter, 2.3 billion pounds was lost.
Even where businesses have re-opened, the hospitality industry is suffering the loss of long lunches and after-dinner drinkies. In the fourth quarter, 2.3 billion pounds was lost.
On the other hand, there has been rapidly increasing demand for suburban dwellings. In New York, one listing received 24 offers and sold for 20% over the asking price. Home sales are up 112% in nearby Westchester county, while the number of listings in Manhattan have fallen by 66%. Cash offers of over $1m are being received. Moving companies are issuing double the number of quotes over last year.
Mark Zuckerberg floated the idea of cutting employees' pay because they did not need to pay for expensive housing or the work trip any more. Amazon and Facebook however are betting workers will return to their desks and have increased their footprint.
Some economists have argued that work-from-home represents a massive productivity improvement.
The rush on suburban housing by the affluent however is not accompanied by any benefit for renters. High end rents have fallen as unemployed people pile out of them into cheaper properties - where rents are ratcheting upwards, driven by the "new poor".
In Australia, house prices have fallen 5%, CBD units are down 15%.
Some economists have argued that work-from-home represents a massive productivity improvement.
The rush on suburban housing by the affluent however is not accompanied by any benefit for renters. High end rents have fallen as unemployed people pile out of them into cheaper properties - where rents are ratcheting upwards, driven by the "new poor".
In Australia, house prices have fallen 5%, CBD units are down 15%.
A moratorium on evictions until December has been issued by the CDC - it is strange a health body should have such a power.
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