Pandemicia coronavirus report #42
Epidemic
The 'second wave' in Europe is growing fast and is enveloping a lot more countries. We are seeing signs of 'COVID exhaustion' there like the USA, where they are trying to run as 'COVID-normal'.
The USA has hit 200,000 deaths - the number that Donald Trump originally said was unacceptable and forced him to act. The country has not "come in under the curve" as he promised. I should imagine it will hit 500,000 short of a vaccine that people actually take, and may reach my 800,000 estimate.
What will help to keep the death count down globally is the much younger populations in the developing world. This is giving much higher recovery rates. For example India has more recoveries than the USA even though it has had 2 million less cases and is at an earlier stage of the pandemic.
In Texas, Latinos are apparently catching COVID-19 and dying at a much greater rate than the general population. They are a majority in some counties. As in Australia, the "catching" may be connected to large families and multiple workplaces, but the "dying" is said to be due to poor access to health care. It is surprising that six months down the track, no-one has bothered to calculate how or whether medical care improves survival rates given there is no real treatment, it is just taken for granted.
South African officials have estimated from an antibody study that that 12 million people have 'probably' had the virus, leading them to conjecture that 40% are immune due to earlier coronavirus infections (we have been conjecturing similar since April, but proof has not eventuated) . Only 15,600 have died but some think the death rate may be double this. The young population is also a major factor. The problem is that many thought that crowded slums would result in high death rates, but of course this has not happened.
Later effects
The loss of sense of smell has been puzzling doctors, leading them to conjecture COVID might be affecting brain cells. This might for example, cause earlier onset of Parkinsons, which has this symptom. Olfactory neurons project directly into the nostrils and are not behind the blood-brain barrier. Around here the epithelial cell inflammation of COVID-19 occurs.
The danger is not negligible. After Spanish Flu there was a 'silent wave' of neurological disease especially Parkinsons.
The danger is not negligible. After Spanish Flu there was a 'silent wave' of neurological disease especially Parkinsons.
Response
With the major new outbreaks in Europe, there have been a number of responses, all minimal. Boris Johnson said the UK was "at a perilous turning point" as he introduced new restrictions on bars, sports and gatherings. In France, Lyon and Nice have been deemed 'red zones' though no particular measures are yet proposed.
There remains a severe global shortage of medical N95 masks. The USA has not been able to procure them even though $1 billion was laid down for medical supplies
Hundreds of thousands of essential workers have been given an experimental vaccine as an emergency measure in China. None have become ill. One wonders whether even if it is successful, Western nations will refuse to use it out of spite.
Melbourne has been surrounded by a 'ring of steel' to enforce movement restrictions. New cases in Victoria have been running below 50 for 14 days, and are now below 30. There have been a few new clusters in aged care, a hospital, a kindergarten and a dairy, and a household outbreak in Casey in the SW, but these are all quite small. NSW continues to have a few new cases every day.
Melbourne has been surrounded by a 'ring of steel' to enforce movement restrictions. New cases in Victoria have been running below 50 for 14 days, and are now below 30. There have been a few new clusters in aged care, a hospital, a kindergarten and a dairy, and a household outbreak in Casey in the SW, but these are all quite small. NSW continues to have a few new cases every day.
Typically, asymptomatic cases are about 40%, but a study claims it raises to 80% with mask-wearing because of the reduced load.
This paper gives a good summary of different vaccine proposals.
Thousands more than usual are dying from dementia - falls, pulmonary infections and sudden frailty.
This paper gives a good summary of different vaccine proposals.
Thousands more than usual are dying from dementia - falls, pulmonary infections and sudden frailty.
Bill Gates has criticised the US pandemic response as 'shocking and unbelievable' - which of course it is.
New cases in the USA are falling by about 15% a week but are rising in eleven states. Bars, restaurants and coffee shops in the USA are more associated with outbreaks than gyms hairdressers or churches. Opening of bars and restaurants appears to equally cause clusters, but bar clusters are more than twice as large. Bars and restaurants are responsible for 20% of cases in those counties providing information. In the most severely affected places like New York and Florida, these are only now beginning to open.
New cases in the USA are falling by about 15% a week but are rising in eleven states. Bars, restaurants and coffee shops in the USA are more associated with outbreaks than gyms hairdressers or churches. Opening of bars and restaurants appears to equally cause clusters, but bar clusters are more than twice as large. Bars and restaurants are responsible for 20% of cases in those counties providing information. In the most severely affected places like New York and Florida, these are only now beginning to open.
Geopolitical
The politicisation of the COVID debate in the USA continues to be an issue. First the CDC put up advice that symptomless people don't need to test and took it down. Then they put up advice the virus could travel distances as an aerosol (fairly obvious from early hospital transmissions) and had to take it down. There are claims that other parts of the Health Department have posting access to the site and are contributing to the confusion.
Economy
Plans for tax cuts in Australia have been blasted by former Liberal leader, economist John Hewson. Obviously it makes little sense to cut taxes when the tax take is going to be so far reduced by stay-at-home. However the reluctance of the government to directly support supply side initiatives is the real problem here.
The number of college applications in the USA has fallen by 100,000, because lower-income Americans do not have the income to take a degree.
Rental affordability has deteriorated in Australia, and with the ban on evictions coming to an end, with a reduction in income support, every one is watching to see how the situation plays out.
Rental affordability has deteriorated in Australia, and with the ban on evictions coming to an end, with a reduction in income support, every one is watching to see how the situation plays out.
Food deliveries continue to create a mountain of waste. Online food orders in the USA are up 127%.
We are in a 'phoney war' phase for economic damage caused by the pandemic, according to an ANZ Bank economist. "Our ability to pay ludicrous house prices has taken a hit".
We are in a 'phoney war' phase for economic damage caused by the pandemic, according to an ANZ Bank economist. "Our ability to pay ludicrous house prices has taken a hit".
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