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| Victoria Market protest |
Pandemicia coronavirus report #41
Epidemic
Global deaths have totalled 910,000, and new global confirmed cases are running at about 310,000 per day. Almost a third of these latter are in India. Another 40% are in the Americas, where deaths have passed a half million.
In terms of new cases, the second blister in Spain looks larger than the first, but testing capacity is now much greater. France has about 10,000 new cases per day and the rest of Europe is hovering on the brink of a second breakout. Russian cases have passed a million.
Belgium, Kuwait and Oman have passed China in cases, and Morocco, Netherlands and Sweden will soon follow.
In terms of new cases, the second blister in Spain looks larger than the first, but testing capacity is now much greater. France has about 10,000 new cases per day and the rest of Europe is hovering on the brink of a second breakout. Russian cases have passed a million.
Belgium, Kuwait and Oman have passed China in cases, and Morocco, Netherlands and Sweden will soon follow.
In Africa the confirmed coronavirus death toll
is 32,502, with deaths including the former
president of the Republic of the Congo, Jacques Joachim Yhombi-Opango, and Somalia's former
Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein. There are 1,346,658 confirmed
infections and 1,083,438 recoveries.
USA
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| Daily deaths USA (7 day average) |
Daily deaths in the USA peaked for the second time in early August. They are still about 1000 per day on some days.
Death rates in nursing homes with majority black patients are 20% higher.
A motor cycle rally in South Dakota may be linked to a quarter million new infections.
Trick or treating and Halloween parties have been banned in Los Angeles county this year.
Half a million cases have now been diagnosed in US children. A very small proportion did result in death.
Half a million cases have now been diagnosed in US children. A very small proportion did result in death.
Ongoing symptoms
88% of hospitalised COVID patients have lung damage. Most patients are unable to walk when they arrive for rehabilitation. More than half of patients have breathlessness and coughing six weeks later. Some patients have ongoing lung and heart problems. Research has suggested the virus actually carves heart muscles into small pieces . |
| Heart muscles (left) carved by COVID (in lab) right |
A
Harvard University study of about 3,200 hospitalized patients, ages 18 to 34,
found that
20 percent of them required intensive care, 10 percent needed a ventilator, and nearly 3 percent died. However, a fairly low fraction are hospitalised.
20 percent of them required intensive care, 10 percent needed a ventilator, and nearly 3 percent died. However, a fairly low fraction are hospitalised.
Response
UK has banned gatherings of more than six to curb resurgence
Victoria
Australia is the first country to have quashed two outbreaks, with daily cases below 50, almost all in Victoria. Melbourne will continue with Stage 4 restrictions. Deaths have lifted to 810, about 8 times the number in the first outbreak. This is because this outbreak proceeded through low-income casual workers into nursing homes.The government has set a roadmap of specific case targets when restrictions will be progressively lifted, much slower than last time. The results were obtained through 1000 iterations of a 'virtual Melbourne' agent-based simulation. In runs in which restrictions were eased once average daily cases dipped below 25 per day, there was a 62% likelihood of new lockdowns. But with restrictions retained until daily cases dropped below 5 daily cases, the lockdown likelihood was just 3%. It is not known of course whether the parameters are accurate, but the results are within expectations. The article also points out that elimination is very much possible in island jurisdictions. Earlier runs of the model also said that elimination could have been achieved in mid-August with 90% probability if 90% of the population wore masks, only 20% essential workers were allowed, and schools were closed.
The extensions of the roadmap have sparked business indignation and public protests. Swarms of fully equipped police attended a demonstration at Victoria Markets today, with horses, dogs and riot shields. 74 people were arrested and 176 fined amid the vegetables.
The Commonwealth has spent 9% of national output on response measures, but the States have spent little more than 1% of their output, so the Commonwealth is calling for a greater State response. The Grattan Institute recommended in June that governments of both kinds plan for $70-to-$90 billion in extra stimulus over the next two years to bring unemployment down to 5%.
Accordingly, the Victoria Government today announced a $290m package for sole traders, entertainment and outdoor dining. Melbourne's CBD will be repurposed to allow outdoor dining during the summer. The new package includes: Business mentoring, regional tourism, business support fund expansion and transformation programmes, mental health support, small hospitality grant, night time economy, further delay in payroll tax.
Vaccine
Most affluent countries have cut deals with one or more potential vaccine suppliers. Australia has backed two promising contenders at Oxford and Queensland. (Astrazeneca and CSL). The first (experimental single shot viral vector) vaccine suffered a setback in Phase 3 clinical trials when a participant had a possible spinal inflammation reaction. The UQ vaccine, in Phase 1 trials, is also innovative, a molecular clamp/adjuvitant approach.
The US has had a $1.5 billion deal with Moderna a month ago, following other deals with Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson. The UK has had deals with six companies including Astrazeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer, Valneva, Janssen and Novavfax since July and August.
The US has had a $1.5 billion deal with Moderna a month ago, following other deals with Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson. The UK has had deals with six companies including Astrazeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer, Valneva, Janssen and Novavfax since July and August.
Hospital presentations for influenza have fallen 80% (there remains a fair chance pulmonary deaths will actually fall overall as a result of the lockdown). Presentations for the most common cancers have fallen 30 per cent, and the number of patients with suspected strokes is down 24 per cent.
For some reason, hundreds of people in Austria received US stimulus cheques of $1200 and cashed them, though they had no eligibility
Schools across the US have stipulated that students must have 44 square feet of space for in-person learning to be safe. The number is however hard to justify.
Geopolitical
The Australia-China relationship has continued to unravel, with China accusing Australia of raiding homes of their journalists. Academics and journalists are now embroiled in the tussle. One of the problems is that the Chinese leadership has become increasingly sensitive to international interference. The other is that Chinese-born have been increasingly identified by law enforcement in Australia as having "Chinese links" when they have done nothing wrong.
Yet another 'leaked China security document' has showed dossiers on a number of Australians, mostly publicly available material. It seems to be exactly the same as national security agencies everywhere assemble.
Yet another 'leaked China security document' has showed dossiers on a number of Australians, mostly publicly available material. It seems to be exactly the same as national security agencies everywhere assemble.
Economy and social
There is a huge parcel backlog in Australia Post as many people order items online.
In an interesting spinoff from COVID, there has been a 60% rise in people obtaining citizenship in Australia in 2019-20.
Adults have been moving back in with parents during the pandemic. Used car prices have risen to an all-time high as Australians abandon public transport to avoid catching COVID-19. After an intitial 15% drop they have risen 30%.
Adults have been moving back in with parents during the pandemic. Used car prices have risen to an all-time high as Australians abandon public transport to avoid catching COVID-19. After an intitial 15% drop they have risen 30%.
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