Pandemicia coronavirus report #45
Epidemic
Since Report #41 about 6 weeks ago, we have observed that Europe was launching into a second breakout. This 'second wave' in the Northern Hemisphere is not because of a more virulent strain as with the 1919 Spanish Flu, but simply because winter gives better conditions for the virus to spread - with dryer air and more people inside.
Almost the whole of Europe and North America now have a significant outbreak. Spain, France, Argentina and Colombia have passed a million cases.
Almost the whole of Europe and North America now have a significant outbreak. Spain, France, Argentina and Colombia have passed a million cases.
Daily case numbers are about four times as great as the first blister in many European countries - but this is misleading as only the seriously ill were tested in April. Hospital occupancy is a better indicator of COVID spread than confirmed cases, in the countries that collect it.
Table. Hospital occupancy from COVID 19, selected European countries.
|
Max April |
Est 26 Oct |
|
|
Austria |
1096 |
1228 |
|
Belgium |
5759 |
5123 |
|
Bulgaria |
389 |
1909 |
|
Czechia |
422 |
6980 |
|
Denmark |
533 |
142 |
|
Finland |
244 |
106 |
|
France |
32131 |
15017 |
|
Hungary |
688 |
2448 |
|
Ireland |
881 |
390 |
|
Italy |
33004 |
13444 |
|
Norway |
325 |
14 |
|
Poland |
3505 |
14216 |
|
Portugal |
1302 |
1451 |
|
Slovakia |
222 |
1107 |
|
Slovenia |
117 |
479 |
|
United Kingdom |
19849 |
8942 |
I have estimated the 26 October figures from the 18 October figures, using the rate of expansion from the previous week. Sweden, Spain, Romania, Netherlands and some other countries do not collect this indicator.
From the Table, the outbreak is already 4-5 times as bad in Eastern Europe as it was earlier. Czechia and Poland have full-scale outbreaks.
In the major countries of Western Europe it is so far about half as bad as at the April peak, but true cases are going up by about 8% a day. Only Norway has managed to stop the outbreak.
Belgium now has a bad second outbreak, similar to the first. In Liege, a third of those tested are infected, and a quarter of hospital staff are off sick. Those who have tested positive but have no symptoms have been asked to continue working.
Hospitalised cases have also surged by about 40% over a month in the USA. There are about 41,000 hospitalised. Kansas, Idaho, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Utah and Texas have had to make emergency transfer arrangements, suspend electives, or set up temporary facilities.
Europe passed 250,000 deaths this week. USA has 226,000. Although there is no real treatment, death rates from hospitalised cases are believed to have dropped by 17 percentage points as medical teams improve their handling of the epidemic and protocols are developed. We will look at this question separately.
Indoor sporting events are particularly risky. Fourteen out of 22 players at an ice hockey game on June 16 in Tampa Florida tested positive. Refrigeration may also be one cause of frequent infections in meatworks.,
The antiviral Remdesvir is the only drug fully approved for treatment in the USA - but a very large study has shown it does not improve survival rates.
The WHO said on 16 Oct that young and healthy people may have to wait till 2022 before receiving a successful vaccine. It also warned that Europe could see deaths four or five times higher than those of last Spring.
The antiviral Remdesvir is the only drug fully approved for treatment in the USA - but a very large study has shown it does not improve survival rates.
The WHO said on 16 Oct that young and healthy people may have to wait till 2022 before receiving a successful vaccine. It also warned that Europe could see deaths four or five times higher than those of last Spring.
Response
Europe
Hospitalisation numbers in Western Europe are similar to those of late March when lockdowns were put in place. Considerable "lockdown fatigue" is present, and many European countries are doing what they can to prevent economically damaging and unpopular lockdowns. Curfews are common, though it is not certain what they achieve.Spain has declared a state of emergency and instituted lockdowns. Belgium has closed cultural facilities, bars and restaurants , while encouraging working from home. ICU capacity is half full but as cases are doubling every week, this may not last long. Ireland has imposed a full scale six-week circuit-breaker stay at home lockdown. The contact tracing system is overloaded.
Special IC facilities in Northern Italy established during the first blister have been re-opened.
Londoners were banned from indoor mixing on Oct 16. All the misunderstandings we have already seen in USA protests was present in a fourth set of street protests on Oct 22 - 5G tower conspiracies, "fake CV", anti-vaxxers. None are wearing masks although it is once again compulsory.
The PM in Czechia has apologised repeatedly for not introducing lockdowns. Czechia was one of the first countries to impose a lockdown, before more heavily infected countries did - and they are tosoem extent a victim of their own success. The health system is buckling: USA has sent doctors and the EU is offering ventilators.
The Polish president has tested positive, and the country has Stage 2 lockdowns.
Australia
After two 'doughnut days' (zero cases, zero deaths) Victoria is finally emerging from the most strenuous lockdown anywhere - seven months punctuated by only a few weeks break. From today, businesses will be open, and outside gatherings of up to 10 people are possible. but there are still considerable limits on movements and home visits. This follows a heavily policed "Grand Final Weekend" where helicopters and drones were flown over public places, people flouting regulations on St Kilda Beach were fined, and a police horse was hit on the nose and tear gas used at a rowdy demonstration at the Shrine of Remembrance.
After 109 days, Melburnians emerge blinking ... The pendulum now swings towards individuals calculating and managing their risks rather than the government telling you exactly what you can and can't do.
The forbearance and trust in government by the public in tolerating two extensive lockdowns has been exemplary. Statements by both the Premier and the PM praising Victorians for winning a battle is not rhetoric.
----------------------------
New Zealand travellers allowed into Sydney under the trans-Tasman bubble were not told about restrictions in moving to other States. 23 travellers proceeded immediately to Western Australia on local flights and were quarantined. About 50 went to Victoria, although the Premier had opposed the bubble. A few did not proceed when they heard of the onerous lockdown in Victoria.
After 109 days, Melburnians emerge blinking ... The pendulum now swings towards individuals calculating and managing their risks rather than the government telling you exactly what you can and can't do.
The forbearance and trust in government by the public in tolerating two extensive lockdowns has been exemplary. Statements by both the Premier and the PM praising Victorians for winning a battle is not rhetoric.
----------------------------
New Zealand travellers allowed into Sydney under the trans-Tasman bubble were not told about restrictions in moving to other States. 23 travellers proceeded immediately to Western Australia on local flights and were quarantined. About 50 went to Victoria, although the Premier had opposed the bubble. A few did not proceed when they heard of the onerous lockdown in Victoria.
A move to repatriate Australians trapped abroad to the Howard Springs facility outside of Darwin has been delayed. Some Victorians have travelled to this comfortable camp about 20 km outside Darwin to escape lockdowns. The NT government has previously been paying millions per year while it decided what to do with this former labour camp, and now it is making $3000 per quarantined person - so perhaps a 'quarantine industry' is emerging..
Geopolitical
Jacinta Ardern has been returned in a landslide in the NZ elections, increasing her vote by 18 percentage points. Her party is able to govern without partners for the first time in New Zealand's recent history. It is a stunning endorsement of her government's successful COVID-19 eradication policy - the first in the Western world.
The US election nears. Surprise results in US elections are usually the result of silent majority groups turning up to vote. They turned up to put Trump into power, and they may equally turn up to remove him. Infections of White House staff continue, including five aides of Vice President Pence.
"China triumphalism" is evident in statements by their government - and by observers who have suggested that 2020 will be a watershed year for geopolitical transfer of power to the East. China’s ability to enforce quarantines and test widely is generally seen as crucial to the country’s success in containing the virus and their rapid economic rebound. At a recent ceremony, handing out medals to citizens for their work on COVID-19, President Xi Jinping announced that “the pandemic once again proves the supremacy of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics”.
China's economy rose by 4% in the June quarter, showing that it is on the path to economic recovery. A property tycoon who criticised the government for early poor handling of the epidemic has been sentenced to 18 years jail.
"China triumphalism" is evident in statements by their government - and by observers who have suggested that 2020 will be a watershed year for geopolitical transfer of power to the East. China’s ability to enforce quarantines and test widely is generally seen as crucial to the country’s success in containing the virus and their rapid economic rebound. At a recent ceremony, handing out medals to citizens for their work on COVID-19, President Xi Jinping announced that “the pandemic once again proves the supremacy of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics”.
China's economy rose by 4% in the June quarter, showing that it is on the path to economic recovery. A property tycoon who criticised the government for early poor handling of the epidemic has been sentenced to 18 years jail.
Economy and social
Social and organisational weaknesses of every kind have emerged under the pressures of the Pandemic, including some such as the management of elder care that were previously more rumoured than discussed
Haves and have nots, property owners and renters, full-time workers and those in the gig economy, regional dwellers and city folk, help for the homeless – many differences and inequalities have been highlighted.
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