Pandemicia coronavirus report #43
Epidemic
Deaths attributed to the coronavirus have passed a million, after about 8 months. It seems feasible that deaths will eventually reach the 3-4 million level. This is the most severe pandemic since AIDS - but does not really compare as AIDS has taken 32 million. The Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918-19 was at least an order of magnitude more severe , and in its 'second wave' attacked mostly young people of working age. Nevertheless, COVID-19 has been a huge shock to global systems, and this has yet to play out in terms of economic disruption.
In America, deaths in California and Florida are now approaching the level of New York and New Jersey.
India appears to be topping out in new cases at last , around 100,000 per day, but this might be due to upper limits on the number of tests that can be performed.
The second blister in Europe is quite well established and this time includes Eastern Europe. New cases in Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark are now well above the first blister. Others such as Italy, Switzerland and Norway are rising but still lower than the first. Burma, Jordan and Slovakia have outbreaks for the first time. By and large, islands and other places with limited land access are doing well.
Sweden, Poland and even little Guatemala have passed China, the original outbreak, in cases. China is now #44.
India appears to be topping out in new cases at last , around 100,000 per day, but this might be due to upper limits on the number of tests that can be performed.
The second blister in Europe is quite well established and this time includes Eastern Europe. New cases in Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark are now well above the first blister. Others such as Italy, Switzerland and Norway are rising but still lower than the first. Burma, Jordan and Slovakia have outbreaks for the first time. By and large, islands and other places with limited land access are doing well.
Sweden, Poland and even little Guatemala have passed China, the original outbreak, in cases. China is now #44.
Virus
A study shows how CV forms itself into a number of different shapes as it attaches itself to three ACE2 receptors, leaving itself open to attack in a number of ways.
A large national study in the US has shown fewer than 10% of the population have antibodies, indicating the virus still has very much further to go. Our original estimate of 800,000 deaths for the USA continues to be plausible.
However, age-specific infection fatality figures from modelling parameters used by the CDC are far lower than those arising from earlier shipboard and Chinese case fatality rates. They show only 5.4% for over 70s, 0.5% for 50-70, and negligible quantities (0.02%) below this. Other figures have shown a 15% death rate for over 70s.
A large national study in the US has shown fewer than 10% of the population have antibodies, indicating the virus still has very much further to go. Our original estimate of 800,000 deaths for the USA continues to be plausible.
However, age-specific infection fatality figures from modelling parameters used by the CDC are far lower than those arising from earlier shipboard and Chinese case fatality rates. They show only 5.4% for over 70s, 0.5% for 50-70, and negligible quantities (0.02%) below this. Other figures have shown a 15% death rate for over 70s.
Response
The inexplicable resistance of WHO and many countries to border closure continues, despite it being the obvious first line of resistance.
A good story about tracking down coronavirus to a particular meat plant where owners were concealing the outbreak, using the mutation sequencing.
Instead of acting as a barrier, Victorian COVID hotels acted as a 'seeding ground'. 18000 infections and 768 deaths resulted from the quarantine bungle.
Instead of acting as a barrier, Victorian COVID hotels acted as a 'seeding ground'. 18000 infections and 768 deaths resulted from the quarantine bungle.
It turns out that Australia, like many other countries, never had any kind of COVID aged care plan even though it was revealed so early that these places were the prime sources of death. This further confirms this as a Great Planning Disaster, where even the simplest preparations and planning rules were not adopted.
A study has estimated that New York's lockdowns reduced infections by 70%.
Geopolitical
US President Donald Trump, #1 COVID denier, has the virus, hours after insisting "the end (of the epidemic) was in sight". FLOTUS and several of his key advisers have also tested positive. He joins Prince Charles and the leaders of the United Kingdom, Brazil, Honduras, Guatemala and Bolivia. With the Presidential election in November, he will be unable to attend rallies and there is a question as to whether he should withdraw.
His case has revealed for the first time the rules used by contact checkers. They start around two days before symptoms show and check everyone who has been within a certain distance (six feet or 2 metres) for 15 minutes or more.
A study of a million articles by Cornell University has identified Donald Trump as being the largest source of misinformation on the virus, as he was referred to in a third of all articles.
His case has revealed for the first time the rules used by contact checkers. They start around two days before symptoms show and check everyone who has been within a certain distance (six feet or 2 metres) for 15 minutes or more.
A study of a million articles by Cornell University has identified Donald Trump as being the largest source of misinformation on the virus, as he was referred to in a third of all articles.
Economy
Although the disease started with jetsetters and holiday makers, low income earners have been the worst hit. The professional class have been relatively unaffected in that they can work form home and have the resources to tide them over difficulties. However, the loss of jobs in a number of industries has put huge pressure on entry-level positions in industries still operating, from people desperate to find work. One job on a factory production line in Melbourne had 4079 applicants. With jobseeker payments now reverted well below the poverty line, a crisis is about to ensue.
An examination of job recoveries in the USA shows much the same - that casual and low-income jobs are the slowest to recover. These are held disproportionately by people of colour and women.
Many protections set in place at the start of the pandemic are now expiring. For example, utility bill protections in the USA have now disappeared in many states, and many residents have fallen way behind in their payments. Countries have become more reluctant to issue protection packages, and USA airlines are about to furlough tens of thousands of workers. The expected repercussions in unemployment are expected to continue for several years.
The Australian government has for the first time in at least a decade and probably thirty years, laid down a plan to kickstart manufacturing in the wake of CV. $1.5 billion will be laid down for priority areas: food/drink, medical, resources, clean energy, defence/space.
An examination of job recoveries in the USA shows much the same - that casual and low-income jobs are the slowest to recover. These are held disproportionately by people of colour and women.
Many protections set in place at the start of the pandemic are now expiring. For example, utility bill protections in the USA have now disappeared in many states, and many residents have fallen way behind in their payments. Countries have become more reluctant to issue protection packages, and USA airlines are about to furlough tens of thousands of workers. The expected repercussions in unemployment are expected to continue for several years.
The Australian government has for the first time in at least a decade and probably thirty years, laid down a plan to kickstart manufacturing in the wake of CV. $1.5 billion will be laid down for priority areas: food/drink, medical, resources, clean energy, defence/space.
Central cities are being vacated by both businesses and households, leading to a flattening of rent curves. Businesses are sitting empty due to lack of custom and are closing. Households are either seeking more space in the suburbs for telecommuting, or are cutting costs if they are unemployed. Only 10% of office space in Manhattan was occupied in September, leading to a drastic decline in downtown consumption. San Francisco rents for a one-bedroom apartment have fallen by 20% over a year, with 7% in September alone. The prospects seem good for an ultimate recovery to the city exodus, but it is likely to take several years.
Comments
Post a Comment