Pandemicia coronavirus report #47
Epidemic
It has been 17 days since the last report. In the meantime, most of the European countries have rapidly overcome their second waves - more successfully than in the first wave, with more targeted lockdowns and more rapid deceleration of cases. This is probably because the population has become better geared toward social distancing and COVID-19 response.
The first countries in the next wave, France and Spain, are down to about a third of the maximum. Deaths are now about the same as in the first wave (when cases seem to have been underestimated by a factor of 3 or 4). Germany and Britain are only now topping out. Switzerland, Portugal and Austria have considerably more deaths in this wave.
Consequently global daily cases have flattened at about 650,000 per day.Total cases have passed 60 million, the population of some larger European countries. Deaths are at a record high of around 13,000 a day. One person is dying every 17 seconds in Europe,
Out of Europe, many countries have not so far succeeded in stemming the winter wave. The worst is the chaos in the USA where it has been impossible to garner a national response.There are now over 200,000 cases per day there, about 30% of the world total, and about 1% of the population are contagious. It looks as if first wave cases were underestimated in March-April by a factor of 6, due to the testing shambles there. 88000 are in hospitals across the USA and there are 2100 deaths a day. Total deaths have been four times higher than the whole Vietnam war. Death rates are significantly higher (15 to 30%) in "communities of colour". El Paso, Texas is looking for workers to 'lift bodies in its morgue'. Most governors are trying to fight a forest fire of infection with garden-hose measures, and they aren’t even aiming at the right targets or starting at the right time
Other places where cases continue to rise are Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Canada, Serbia, Panama, Japan, Belarus, Croatia, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Paraguay, Algeria, Malaysia, Afghanistan, Albania. Many of these are places that stopped a first wave through early action, but did not sustain it and never embraced the "new normal" so lost the ability to act forcefully a second time.
The first countries in the next wave, France and Spain, are down to about a third of the maximum. Deaths are now about the same as in the first wave (when cases seem to have been underestimated by a factor of 3 or 4). Germany and Britain are only now topping out. Switzerland, Portugal and Austria have considerably more deaths in this wave.
Consequently global daily cases have flattened at about 650,000 per day.Total cases have passed 60 million, the population of some larger European countries. Deaths are at a record high of around 13,000 a day. One person is dying every 17 seconds in Europe,
Out of Europe, many countries have not so far succeeded in stemming the winter wave. The worst is the chaos in the USA where it has been impossible to garner a national response.There are now over 200,000 cases per day there, about 30% of the world total, and about 1% of the population are contagious. It looks as if first wave cases were underestimated in March-April by a factor of 6, due to the testing shambles there. 88000 are in hospitals across the USA and there are 2100 deaths a day. Total deaths have been four times higher than the whole Vietnam war. Death rates are significantly higher (15 to 30%) in "communities of colour". El Paso, Texas is looking for workers to 'lift bodies in its morgue'.
Other places where cases continue to rise are Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Canada, Serbia, Panama, Japan, Belarus, Croatia, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Paraguay, Algeria, Malaysia, Afghanistan, Albania. Many of these are places that stopped a first wave through early action, but did not sustain it and never embraced the "new normal" so lost the ability to act forcefully a second time.
Australia - success at last
With Australia essentially reaching full suppression, the State governments are highly sensitised to small outbreaks from incoming arrivals - especially after the Victorian epidemic from a single COVID hotel case. Borders with South Australia were slammed shut on the 16th. The cause of alarm is always a case from an unknown source.
In South Australia, someone who contracted COVID from picking up a pizza led to a Statewide draconian shutdown - until a worker in the shop finally confessed he had been also working in the COVID hotel from which the small outbreak originated. The State is finally moving infected patients to a separate facility with police guard. It is hard to understand why this was not done everywhere from the beginning, given the very high stakes.
Victoria has been progressively relaxing restrictions after four weeks of zero cases, and masks are no longer required outdoors. No new cases, hospitals empty, sewage clear. COVID has been eliminated. The borders to New South Wales and Queensland are open at last, and Queensland is looking forward to a summer tourist season.
Source of COVID-19
It's now generally agreed that no-one really knows where the pandemic came from. Some horseshoe bats in Cambodia have been found to contain what might be an ancestor of COVID-19.
With Australia essentially reaching full suppression, the State governments are highly sensitised to small outbreaks from incoming arrivals - especially after the Victorian epidemic from a single COVID hotel case. Borders with South Australia were slammed shut on the 16th. The cause of alarm is always a case from an unknown source.
In South Australia, someone who contracted COVID from picking up a pizza led to a Statewide draconian shutdown - until a worker in the shop finally confessed he had been also working in the COVID hotel from which the small outbreak originated. The State is finally moving infected patients to a separate facility with police guard. It is hard to understand why this was not done everywhere from the beginning, given the very high stakes.
Victoria has been progressively relaxing restrictions after four weeks of zero cases, and masks are no longer required outdoors. No new cases, hospitals empty, sewage clear. COVID has been eliminated. The borders to New South Wales and Queensland are open at last, and Queensland is looking forward to a summer tourist season.
In South Australia, someone who contracted COVID from picking up a pizza led to a Statewide draconian shutdown - until a worker in the shop finally confessed he had been also working in the COVID hotel from which the small outbreak originated. The State is finally moving infected patients to a separate facility with police guard. It is hard to understand why this was not done everywhere from the beginning, given the very high stakes.
Victoria has been progressively relaxing restrictions after four weeks of zero cases, and masks are no longer required outdoors. No new cases, hospitals empty, sewage clear. COVID has been eliminated. The borders to New South Wales and Queensland are open at last, and Queensland is looking forward to a summer tourist season.
Source of COVID-19
It's now generally agreed that no-one really knows where the pandemic came from. Some horseshoe bats in Cambodia have been found to contain what might be an ancestor of COVID-19.Response
The main news is that three of the vaccine candidates have proven to be effective and do not seem to have side-effects. Several are already under production anticipating approval, and mass distribution of millions of doses by March.
The Pfizer/BioNGen and Moderna vaccines have demonstrated 90 - 95% effectiveness, but they need to be stored and transported at ultra-cold temperatures, which will limit the locations where they can be used, even in the USA. The final review is due December 10. If successful, Pfizer are ready to ship doses for 20 million in December.
Astrazeneca/Oxford have also produced favourable results, but more data are necessary. Their offering is likely to ultimately be more useful as it can be distributed at room temperature.
Pfizer jabs in Australia are expected from March.
There is deep suspicion of the vaccine in the USA, particularly among minorities where it is most needed.
The Pfizer/BioNGen and Moderna vaccines have demonstrated 90 - 95% effectiveness, but they need to be stored and transported at ultra-cold temperatures, which will limit the locations where they can be used, even in the USA. The final review is due December 10. If successful, Pfizer are ready to ship doses for 20 million in December.
Astrazeneca/Oxford have also produced favourable results, but more data are necessary. Their offering is likely to ultimately be more useful as it can be distributed at room temperature.
Pfizer jabs in Australia are expected from March.
There is deep suspicion of the vaccine in the USA, particularly among minorities where it is most needed.
The University of Queensland vaccine has proven to be particularly effective on the elderly, and it will be available from end 2021.
While initially it was presumed that children did not transmit the virus, the opening of schools has been a prime driver of the current outbreaks.
Footage has emerged of people at Shanghai’s international airport being corralled into a carpark building after a sudden decision to test thousands for the coronavirus, when several cases were detected in cargo handlers from North America. A few cases are also being found in border areas of China. China continues to take no chances - as indeed it should not given the huge risk.
Geopolitical
China and Russia are rushing to share their state-backed vaccines with countries in need. This is interpreted by the Western Press as "buying influence" and "playing a deeper game". Contrary to this, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are intended to be distributed first to the USA, then to wealthy countries that have pre-bought millions of doses. High- and middle-income countries have already purchased 3.8 billion doses of promising vaccines, with options for 5 billion more, whereas it looks as if developing countries will have to wait until 2024.
USA has also declined to contribute to the Covax WHO program to distribute billions of doses to developing countries and has no program to share. Clearly the privatised system whereby large companies make huge profits and use some of these to develop further profit-making opportunities is once again failing the world (as it has done with AIDS). Hopefully the Biden administration will take a more generous position.
USA has also declined to contribute to the Covax WHO program to distribute billions of doses to developing countries and has no program to share. Clearly the privatised system whereby large companies make huge profits and use some of these to develop further profit-making opportunities is once again failing the world (as it has done with AIDS). Hopefully the Biden administration will take a more generous position.
Relations between China and Australia have continued to crumble, with more than 50 bulk shipments of coal held offshore in China since October due to 'quality concerns'. One Indian ship with Australian coal has been offshore for five months. Meat, timber, cotton, coal, copper, barley, wine and seafood have been targeted by Chinese 'go-slow' procedures. Some exporters have been attacking the Australian government and press, telling them to 'just shut up'.
The message is fairly clear. While many accuse the Chinese of bullying, the shoe is actually on the other foot and Asian countries no longer have to tolerate several centuries of condescension, impoliteness and intimidation by Westerners.
The message is fairly clear. While many accuse the Chinese of bullying, the shoe is actually on the other foot and Asian countries no longer have to tolerate several centuries of condescension, impoliteness and intimidation by Westerners.
Economy and Social
The Florida grocery
chain Publix is being sued by the family of a 70-year-old worker who died after being refused the right to wear a mask at work. A meat plant in Nevaska is being sued after management allegedly took bets on how many would be infected (1000).
Toilet paper is being panic bought in the USA again as local lockdowns have been threatened.
Threats of suicide have risen substantially in young adults, while older people have been barely affected despite their far greater risk. Statistics collection in the USA is poor and it may not be known for several years whether suicide has risen.
Toilet paper is being panic bought in the USA again as local lockdowns have been threatened.
Threats of suicide have risen substantially in young adults, while older people have been barely affected despite their far greater risk. Statistics collection in the USA is poor and it may not be known for several years whether suicide has risen.
The plan to cull 17 million mink in Denmark was halted. Thousands have been destroyed. 66 workers were shown to have evidence of infection.
A note from an Irish correspondent on 12 Nov.
A note from an Irish correspondent on 12 Nov.
This locality is being badly hit by the virus. It is just recently that any
of the people affected are known to me - and now I know many of them - some of
them close neighbours. Carelessness - sheer carelessness. One woman celebrating
her 50th birthday with a party in a pub. She got it - her husband and son. Her
husband's 2 brothers and a wife of one of them. Most of them in the age range
45-55. Young people have a right to be silly. People in that age range are not
young and have no right to be silly.
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