Pandemicia coronavirus report #48
Epidemic
The pandemic continues to rage everywhere. In Europe and Western Asia, the countries that had the fewest cases in the first wave are now suffering the most. In terms of daily new cases per million we have
Croatia 1007, Cyprus 944, Slovenia 839, Serbia 834, Montenegro 700, Slovakia 678, Czechia 580, Hungary 522, Lithuania 1213, Estonia 570, Latvia 349, Moldova 361, Romania 329, Albania 305 Poland 303 Ukraine 302
Croatia 1007, Cyprus 944, Slovenia 839, Serbia 834, Montenegro 700, Slovakia 678, Czechia 580, Hungary 522, Lithuania 1213, Estonia 570, Latvia 349, Moldova 361, Romania 329, Albania 305 Poland 303 Ukraine 302
Denmark 614
Azerbaijan 420, Armenia 335, Turkey 345
United States 663.
United States 663.
As the USA is such a large country, cases are rising the most rapidly in absolute terms - a million in less than a week. The positivity rate for tests is still 11.5%, far higher than similar countries, showing that testing has never really become fully developed in the USA. Deaths in the US have passed 300,000 on their way to the new CDC estimate of 450,000 - in excess of WWII deaths. There are two deaths a minute. The country has not come in "under the curve" as President Trump promised, but far beyond it.
The Thanksgiving Effect has been peculiarly state-specific - California has had a massive ninefold surge in daily cases, and daily deaths are expected to reach 500. This is still well short of New York's 1270 per day in early April, but it seems likely California will eventually reach the New York total of 35,000 deaths. Ten rural counties have no intensive care beds.
Response
Most European countries have stepped up their response as winter begins, in the face of a pronounced second wave. Germany now has a heavy lockdown, with Christmas gift shopping and gatherings banned. Britain is varying its lockdown by severity of area.
In further proof of the efficacy of lockdowns (apart from the very obvious response in case numbers after 5-10 days) a study has shown a 30% fall in Britain following lockdown. Nevertheless cases have begun ot creep upward in in the UK since a low around 2 December.
Incoming arrivals to Australia continue to register COVID cases at the rate of 9 per day. Australians are banned from travelling abroad until March 17, and cruise ships are banned from Australian waters.
Vaccine
The vaccines are the big news, with Pfizer launched first in UK, then Pfizer and Oxford/Astrazeneca in US. Three million doses are being distributed to health care workers in the USA.
Pfizer begins to work 10 days after the first jab. It travels in 'eskys' using about 50 pounds of dry ice, and can only be opened a couple of times per day.
Pfizer begins to work 10 days after the first jab. It travels in 'eskys' using about 50 pounds of dry ice, and can only be opened a couple of times per day.
Work began on these and other vaccines instantly the Chinese announced the structure on 11 January - 10 months to conditional approval is regarded as record time. This article makes it clear that already by mid January modellers were announcing a full scale pandemic was on the way - yet not a single Western country was able to mobilize for months. the problem was not science or medicine - it was the lack of integration or advice into policy making structures after decades of neglect that created the pandemic or at least accelerated it.
The Chinese Sinopharm also appears effective, especially against severe cases developing, and will be launched in UAR. There have been no plans for Western countries.
The Queensland effort has come to grief when several testees gave false positives for AIDS , (the vaccine uses a deactivated AIDS carrier. The Sanofi/GSK candidate has also failed, not producing enough of an immune response. Australia has however purchased enough of the Oxford and Novovax vaccines to cover the population.
The Queensland effort has come to grief when several testees gave false positives for AIDS , (the vaccine uses a deactivated AIDS carrier. The Sanofi/GSK candidate has also failed, not producing enough of an immune response. Australia has however purchased enough of the Oxford and Novovax vaccines to cover the population.
Geopolitical
President Trump overturned
a plan to give some of the first shots to White House officials
hours after the New York Times first reported the intention on Sunday. The
proposal had angered the
president's critics, who noted that Trump and members of his
administration have routinely downplayed the pandemic, disregarded social
distancing guidelines and been involved in multiple coronavirus outbreaks. The one success in Trump's notoriously anti-science agenda has been the use of the medical 'deep state' to roll out millions of doses immediately following approval.
The pointless stoush between China and Australia continues. Coal deliveries from Australia are stopped, with dozens of ships waiting offshore for months. Other products including beef are in the firing line.
Economy
In Australia, consumer confidence is rising, and the 'official' recession is ended
Some 400,000 crew members are trapped on cargo ships without shore leave, some for 18 months.
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