Pandemicia coronavirus report #49
Christmas
In Britain 16 million people are under Level 4 lockdown, faced with an outbreak from a New Variant that is said to spread more quickly. This variant has a surprising number of mutations (eight) in the spike virus, probably the most dangerous place as it affects its ability to latch onto cell sites. This one has so many new mutations that one might well suspect it has been through an animal vector. The new version can be picked up on a standard PCR test and doesn't need full sequencing.
European countries have blocked travel from Britain in the short term, causing traveller chaos.
In Sydney's Northern Beaches, an outbreak from an unknown source has risen to 83 cases. A quarter of a million people were ordered into lockdown on 19 Dec. The other States have all closed borders to Sydney. Hundreds of passengers in Adelaide were ordered into quarantine even though they arrived hours before the midnight closure. The army has refused to assist the police in blocking the Victoria border.
There have been over half a million new cases daily since late October. A few milestones have been reached - Poland, Ukraine, Iran and Peru have passed a million cases, Turkey and the UK 2 million, India 10 million. The outbreaks in Germany and the UK are particularly bad with over 30,000 new cases per day. The whole of North America has a rampant pandemic. In Colombia, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and South Africa, new cases are soaring, yet some of their neighbours are holding things down quite well.
Response
Interesting research has identified air flow in hospitals and hotels as probably a significant cause of spreading COVID-19. This is probably what happened with MERS, which spread rapidly through hospitals eight year ago.
In Australia, FINALLY there are pressures to do something about air crew. Diplomats not yet. The most surprising thing is that it has taken nine months to see the absolutely obvious - that it is crazy to bring infected people into crowded cities and dump them in multiple locations where they can't really be watched.
It appears the Victorian COVID hotel strategy was conceived and put into operation in only 36 hours, because of lack of any national guidance. They could have learned a great deal from Korea.
Geopolitical
The attempt of the Puritans to ban Christmas jollity re-ignited the English Civil War in the 1640s.
Germans are concerned the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine is slow to be introduced, given it was invented in Germany.
Germans are concerned the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine is slow to be introduced, given it was invented in Germany.
Economy
The Australian Treasurer has pointed to rosier news. Of $251b committed, $138b has been spent. The deficit estimate has been reduced by $16b. Unemployment has been restricted to 6.8% and is expected to peak at 7.5% after Jobkeeper runs out. GDP grew by 3.3% in the third quarter. 80% of people stood down are back at work.
Sales in toys, board games, model trains and other home activities are very healthy, as lockdown continues in Europe.
MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL
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