Pandemicia coronavirus report #51

 

London running out of hospital space

Pandemicia coronavirus report #51

Epidemic

Most of the action this year has been surrounding the distribution of the first vaccines, the Presidential takeover, and ongoing attempts to put cases escaped from quarantine in Australia back in the box. 

In the meantime, the new more infectious variants from Britain and South Africa have been taking over and minor new highs are occurring, as daily global deaths pass 15,000 and total deaths pass 2 million. 

A week ago the worst countries in terms of new cases per million were Ireland, Czechia, Israel, UK, Portugal and Spain, but stringent lockdowns in the leaders have kicked in, while neighbours of Britain are rising fast, Portugal and Spain. In Latin America, Colombia and Mexico are at their worst and Brazil looks like it may make new highs. Cases in Indonesia has been slowly rising since November but as all over the developing world, deaths are not so high. 

In the 1000+deaths per day category (more than Australia's total) we have USA (over 4000 on 12th Jan) Brazil, UK, Germany and Mexico. New cases in Britain shot up rapidly from 21,000 a day to nearly 70,000 a day on 8 Jan, due largely to the B.1.1.7 UK variant but have fallen right back following lockdown. Deaths from this surge are now peaking  at over 1800 per day, amid anger and grief. There is some evidence the new variant is more deadly as well as more infectious, but vaccines appear to grant immunity. 

Deaths in the USA have passed 400,000 and the country seems set to reach something like 800,000  deaths, even with the vaccine. Total cases have been estimated at 50 million, about double the official total. Hospitalisations peaked on Jan 7 at 132000. 

California is the most affected state of the USA with 600 deaths a day - keeping to the general rule that it is the most advanced, linked and urbanised places that are the hardest hit. The situation has been so bad in LA that on 6 Jan, ambulance drivers were told to ration oxygen and stop transporting patients with little chance of survival. A number of places have re-opened field hospitals. 

Cases of British B.1.1.7 were identified in the USA by 1 Jan, and there were more than 50  a week later . It is said to be between 40% and 70% more transmissible. Modelling from CDC says it will be dominant by March.  

Response

In Australia, daily new cases were up over 40 on several days during the holiday period. They have now fallen below 10 while employing only spot lockdowns - so it appears the authorities have mastered test, trace and isolate at last. A small breach into Western Sydney as an outlier of the Northern Beaches cluster led to border closures on New Years Day. There are 32 cases in hospital.  Returning international travellers continue to present with the disease at around 60 per week. Greater Brisbane briefly locked down on Jan 9 because of several incoming cases of the new British variant. A very low number of locally acquired cases continues to be reported - none on 24 Jan. And in Victoria which had the major outbreak - no locally acquired cases for 19 days. You can beat this virus.

Early in the pandemic, funds were cut to US hospitals when people stopped attending due to fear of infection. Now young doctors cannot get permanent jobs, though they are treating many COVID patients daily. 

The Australian quarantine system "leaks like a sieve" and there have been many calls to move facilities out of town, but governments are reluctant to do so at this late stage in the game. Early arrivals form abroad were sent to Christmas Island or to Howard Springs outside of Darwin, but governments rapidly moved to the risky hotel  quarantine scheme.

Virtually every common respiratory and gastrointestinal virus has been quashed by lockdowns and social distancing. 

A long list of protests against government actions is shown here. Anti-mask activities echo those held in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.  These have been under way around the world since July. A survey from Paris, Sep, and a  documentary from Canada, October, show the types of people and issues involved in protests. In a number of countries anti-maskers have held rallies and forced their way into shopping centres. Westfield Paramatta was invaded on Jan 17 and Jan 21. 

An illegal New Years rave party in Brittany drew 2500 people to a small village, and lasted for days. 

A Quebec couple were fined $1200 for being out after curfew. Dog walking is permitted, and the woman claimed she was "walking her husband on a leash."

Vaccine

Healthcare workers wait for jabs, Virginia USA

First batches of the Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford Astrazenica vaccines have been rolled out very rapidly. First in line are generally frontline workers, as these have the greatest exposure and they are essential to continue the fight. A number of very old and seriously ill people died in Norway after being given the vaccine, but generally there have been very few allergic responses.

In the US 14 million doses had been distributed by 1 Jan, but only 3 million jabs delivered, well short of Operation Warpspeed targets. In West Virginia, 44 people received an antibody treatment instead of the vaccine. This Regeneron infusion (given to President Trump) had gone unused because of complexities in its delivery and monitoring. The patchwork approach in the USA has allowed the privileged to jump the queue - a luxury nursing home in Florida offered vaccines to its major donors and board members. The lack of coordination of vaccine efforts seems however brilliantly orchestrated next to the disaster of social distancing and medical treatment in the USA.

Two vaccines Covaxin and Covishield have been launched in India, with strict instructions as to who should not receive them.  A million doses have been given as aid to Nepal. 52 adverse events were reported on the first day in Delhi, with one severe.

China is attempting to give two shots of their vaccine to 50 million workers before the Lunar New Year family travel holiday. 

Geopolitical

Thugs in Capitol

The USA was horrified when Trump supporters and far right groups stormed the Capitol building on 8 Jan, where state counts were under way to confirm the Presidential election result. Not much attempt was made to stop the looters, though one woman was shot. The chamber was evacuated while thugs ran freely through the building, but it later reconvened to confirm Biden's election win. 

The Biden administration has now taken over, and ex-President Trump has headed for his Florida holding. He was impeached by Congress for the second time, over his role in encouraging his activist supporters who broke into the Capitol building, took it over and did considerable damage during the hearing that ratified State delegates and confirmed Biden's win. Trump has also been banned for life from Twitter, after delivering anything up to 60 tweets a day during his presidency.

A WHO team has arrived in China to look at the beginnings of the epidemic. Their brief is to try to find the cause, to assist in coping with future outbreaks, but the Chinese Communist Party are concerned their early response may be found wanting. 

China is expected to reach about 3/4 of America's GDP by end 2020, but in terms of purchasing power it is already 10% greater. A survey of business, media and civil society leaders in Southeast Asia showed that Beijing was considered vastly more influential than Washington in the region. A majority in seven out of ten countries preferred alliance with China over the USA, stating they had little to no confidence in the US as a strategic partner or provider of regional security (Vietnam, Philippines and Singapore prefer the USA). 

Economy

Savings are at their highest levels for 50 years in Australia, thanks to government interventions and reduced household costs. $112 billion was squirrelled away from Jan to November - suggesting both a consumer surge and a surge in house prices are imminent. 

COVID has enormously accelerated remote working, partly due to businesses becoming aware of big savings in commercial rents and the possibility of dropping wages. In India, professionally qualified women are seeing it as a game changer in the business of balancing family and work. Both managers and workers have become highly supportive. 

In the USA, half a million hospitality jobs were lost in a month as lockdowns began again. A million unemployed are waiting a very long time before receiving benefits. They are asked for extensive proof of identity and may have to wait months to speak to a senior administrator.  About 8 million Americans have fallen into poverty. Commentators say the nine-month wait underscores how unprepared the United States was to deal with this large-scale crisis. Also, there was no attempt to deliver assistance through company payrolls as in other countries.

Both Oxfam and the World Bank have warned that, as with most crises, the pandemic has exacerbated inequality - possibly the largest increase in inequality in at least 50 years. The world's 10 richest men have made $500 billion,and Australia's 31 billionaires have made $85 billion since the start of the pandemicThe economic crisis is sending a new generation into poverty and debt turmoil. The International Monetary Fund has warned that developing nations may be set back by a decade. 

One million young workers emptied out their super accounts in Australia during the early super access scheme (which allowed them to withdraw $20,000 twice if their income was COVID-affected). Women did this disproportionately, possibly because they were in industries with no Jobkeeper payment. A lot of the money was used to pay down debt.

Profits in certain Australian companies have soared. JB HiFi/Good Guys increased their profit by 86%, mostly on white goods. Superretail made so much through Camping equipment provider BCF (as Australians rushed to holiday in-country) that they returned $1.7m in Jobkeeper subsidies.

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