Lisbon
Pandemicia coronavirus report #52
Epidemic
The world passed 100 million confirmed cases on 31 January, but global daily infection figures have fallen away slightly since maxing on 6 January. Daily deaths maximised at about 18,000, and in UK about 1800, second only to USA which has about 4500 deaths daily. Germany also had over 1700 deaths on 19 Jan.
Britain's death toll has passed 100,000 and the PM Boris Johnson has expressed his deep sorrow, saying that in April they had hoped to cap deaths at 20,000.
Almost everywhere, cases have fallen away after the new year maximum. A few exceptions are Portugal, Emirates and neighbours, and Malaysia which is seeing a record number of cases per day but almost no deaths. Indonesia's cases also continue the upward trend. China has finally passed 100,000 cases after a fairly steady several hundred cases per day over a long period.
In Australia, there continue to be a run of scares and border closures but there have been virtually no community cases. Victoria has had no cases in four months, apart from the steady trickle of incoming infected passengers.
Britain's death toll has passed 100,000 and the PM Boris Johnson has expressed his deep sorrow, saying that in April they had hoped to cap deaths at 20,000.
Almost everywhere, cases have fallen away after the new year maximum. A few exceptions are Portugal, Emirates and neighbours, and Malaysia which is seeing a record number of cases per day but almost no deaths. Indonesia's cases also continue the upward trend. China has finally passed 100,000 cases after a fairly steady several hundred cases per day over a long period.
In Australia, there continue to be a run of scares and border closures but there have been virtually no community cases. Victoria has had no cases in four months, apart from the steady trickle of incoming infected passengers.
Portugal has had the highest rate of new COVID cases and deaths in the world (per million) over the last few weeks, probably due to the British variant. The main hospitals are overcharged with sick people and doctors. Portugal initially maintained good social distancing and kept cases low, but because so many Portuguese are poor they have been unable to sustain it. A hard right political party has made significant headway in the recent elections.
Schizophrenia has turned out to be the second-highest risk factor for COVID mortality, after age. People withe this particular condition were 2.7 times as likely to die. Other mental conditions were not implicated.
Response
Vaccine
The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is 85% effective against severe disease, and 100% after 28 days. It is single shot and can be kept at refrigerator temperature. It is adenovirus based like Oxford-Astrazenica and Sputnik V.
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| Good start, COVID jabs |
In a rapid rollout, 9.3 million Britons have received a first jab since 11 Jan, and half a million have the second jab. Given the early bumbling over testing, ventilators and PPE, this seems almost incredible.
In Israel, the world leader in per-capita inoculations, 20% were inoculated with Pfizer by 15 January and 72% of those over 60. Now, 3.1 million Israelis have received their first dose and 1.8 million the second - but clinics are struggling to find people to inoculate and doses have been thrown out while Europe faces a shortage. Palestinians were initially excluded but are now receiving 500 doses for medical teams. Despite the relatively high number of vaccinations in the Israeli population and weeks of lockdown, the virus continues to run rampant, largely due to more contagious variants (70% of new cases are British variant), and the country remains under lockdown. This has led to to non-compliance by the ultra orthodox community (also resistant to vaccination) and businesses.
Australia will receive 80,000 doses per week of Pfizer from late February, and up to 1.2 million doses of Astrazenica. Australia has been promised 53 million doses and CSL in Australia is licensed to produce enough for the whole population. They also have 51 million doses of Novovax on order.
The Russian Sputnik V emergency vaccine, first used in August, has been peer reviewed in Lancet to have an efficacy almost as high as Pfizer/Moderna. It delivers immunity 1.3 to 1.5 times as high as in people who have recovered, and sells at about $10 a shot. The interim data were announced in November.
In the USA, many nursing home staff (over 40% in Maryland) refused to be vaccinated in the first round . In other places, over half have declined. Online misinformation and distrust of the medical system by minorities is blamed. The takeup is much better in second rounds, once they see no ill effects.
The EU approved Oxford-Astrazenica as the third COVID-19 vaccine after the"coveted but finicky" Pfizer and Moderna, and announced it will control the level of exports, possibly signalling an international battle. The manufacturer had promised 400 million cases but had to limit promises due to 'supply problems' in its Belgian production unit - so the EU has acted to earmark vaccines produced there for itself, despite contract purchases elsewhere. An announcement by a partner that supplies for the quarter would be dropped by 60% led to an EU raid on suspicion that supplies were being diverted elsewhere. Germany has ruled that the Astrazenica vaccine should not be given to over 65's, because of a run of deaths among very elderly in Norway. Vaccinations will be discontinued from next week due to shortages, and Germany believes the shortages will continue into April.
Production has also been delayed in Britain because of a bomb scare in Wales, The UK is refusing to supply Europe, given the shortage.
Production has also been delayed in Britain because of a bomb scare in Wales, The UK is refusing to supply Europe, given the shortage.
The South African variant B.1.351 has turned out to be partially resistant to vaccines. It was first detected in early October and now has 90% of cases. Novovax efficacy drops from 90% to 50%. Moderna vaccine only produces 1/6 the antibodies. Many people can be re-infected with this variant.
By comparison the flu vaccine is 40-60% effective.
By comparison the flu vaccine is 40-60% effective.
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| Rioting in Netherlands |
There have been three nights of rioting, mostly by young right wing groups organised through social media, over the introduction of curfews in the Netherlands. A testing facility and vehicles have been set ablaze, and shop windows broken. 500 have been arrested.
With several new variants on the loose and vaccine distribution somewhat delayed, there have been several calls for people to begin wearing two masks as per the picture. It is possibly inevitable given the raging epidemics in Europe and North America. This is coming just as Australians are relaxing their use of masks.
China has introduced anal swabs as a more accurate testing method
China has introduced anal swabs as a more accurate testing method
Geopolitical
Fingerpointing has begun at the extreme lack of preparedness in the USA, resulting in so much floundering while over 400,000 died. A whistleblower has identified, "federal officials repeatedly raided a fund earmarked for biomedical research in the years leading up to the covid-19 pandemic, spending millions of dollars on unrelated salaries, administrative expenses and even the cost of removing office furniture". This unfortunately is all too common with earmarked funds in "low priority" R&D areas.
According to a new documentary, "In the Same Breath", in the early stages of the pandemic China banned social-media posts about the virus, stopped symptomatic people from entering hospitals, punished doctors who spoke of the risks and unleashed a stream of state-TV propaganda downplaying its severity. The trouble with this narrative is that other countries such as the USA did more or less the same but the results were far more devastating. China did save millions of lives, its neighbours heeded the warnings and also did well, and the Western countries ignored them and have suffered ever since. The evidence for wrong-doing by China will need to be examined closely and neutrally.
Economy
In America, people were already staying at home before governors issued Stay at home orders This happened around March 14 as stock markets collapsed. The indicators were based on cellphone activity. They also show that people did not go back to work when the lockdowns ceased.
Typically around 35 million people require food assistance in the USA, but the number quadrupled during the pandemic. The UN has warned of an impending 'hunger pandemic' globally, and the numbers without food are said to have increased from 135 million to 270 million globally, because of disrupted supply chains.
Typically around 35 million people require food assistance in the USA, but the number quadrupled during the pandemic. The UN has warned of an impending 'hunger pandemic' globally, and the numbers without food are said to have increased from 135 million to 270 million globally, because of disrupted supply chains.
A 'roaring twenties' is forecast by Barclays because of accumulated savings and stimulus, similar to what occurred after the Spanish Flu in 1918.
The extraordinary demand for out of town housing continues in Australia, with no rental property at all available and for-sale properties snapped up the day they are advertised. In inner city areas, vacancy rates are up to 10%. “These are areas that have a high level of overseas migration and student population, with a significant proportion of the rental demand sourced from overseas. These are also areas that have a greater exposure to the industries most vulnerable to the job losses associated with the pandemic.”
The extraordinary demand for out of town housing continues in Australia, with no rental property at all available and for-sale properties snapped up the day they are advertised. In inner city areas, vacancy rates are up to 10%. “These are areas that have a high level of overseas migration and student population, with a significant proportion of the rental demand sourced from overseas. These are also areas that have a greater exposure to the industries most vulnerable to the job losses associated with the pandemic.”
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