Pandemicia coronavirus report #53
Epidemic
New cases have dropped 16% worldwide over the last week, presumably as winter ends in the northern hemisphere. They have fallen more than half since the Jan 21 peak. They have fallen by 75% in the USA 85% in Britain and Germany, and even faster in South Africa. Vaccination of key workers appears to be breaking the chain of transmission (but it has yet to begin in South Africa). Longer stricter lockdowns similar to the original successful Chinese (or NZ) approach appear to be working. New deaths are also falling.
Cases are surging in the Middle East,especially Iraq. Results are patchy in Latin America.
Professor John Edwards, who travelled to WHO to investigate the origins of the virus, says there is no evidence the virus moved from an animal reservoir to humans in China. Pandemicia has pointed this out since October, suggesting it was not discovered at its original source because of lack of knowledge or interest there in "Pneumonias of Unknown Etiology".
At last a "COVID human challenge" study has been mounted. This and a whole lot of other research should have immediately begun a year ago. We still have no idea how the disease spreads, how superspreading works or a host of other things that would have enabled us to come rapidly to grips with the disease. The lack of research activity, except where immediate financial paybacks were indicated, has been breathtaking,
Two tiger cubs probably died of COVID-19 in a zoo in Pakistan
Cases are surging in the Middle East,especially Iraq. Results are patchy in Latin America.
At last a "COVID human challenge" study has been mounted. This and a whole lot of other research should have immediately begun a year ago. We still have no idea how the disease spreads, how superspreading works or a host of other things that would have enabled us to come rapidly to grips with the disease. The lack of research activity, except where immediate financial paybacks were indicated, has been breathtaking,
Two tiger cubs probably died of COVID-19 in a zoo in Pakistan
Response
Victoria has had a five-day snap lockdown from midnight Friday 12 Feb, after a few cases including the British fast-spreading variety emerged from the Holiday Inn COVID hotel at the airport. The use of a banned nebuliser was blamed for blowing the virus out into corridors. The usual panic buying ensued. It was made clear this lockdown was not to prevent spread but to help the contact tracers, who are now the prime means of suppressing the disease. One might think that there would be some less extensive means to limit immediate spread - however infected people do seem to move very far very fast. The lockdown worked and has been discontinued today.
After repeated outbreaks from quarantine costing many billions of dollars, Australia is finally considering establishing proper quarantine facilities - as it once had for 150 years, and as Korea has had in place since last February. The resistance of governments to a simple measure that was intuitively obvious to our forbears has been incomprehensible. The first cases incoming from China were quarantined at Christmas Island and at Howard Springs out of Darwin. The Federal government is now to expand Howard Springs, while the Victorian government is considering purpose-built cabin facilities near the airport.
The British variant is now supposed to be 30% to 70% moire deadly. Britain is copying the covid hotel approach to prevent the spread of the new strain. Let us hope it does better than Australia.
The British variant is now supposed to be 30% to 70% moire deadly. Britain is copying the covid hotel approach to prevent the spread of the new strain. Let us hope it does better than Australia.
Vaccine
Australia has approved the Oxford-Astrazenica virus as a 'lower cost' second tier to Pfizer, which is restricted to health workers. Although it costs much less and can be kept in a refrigerator, it has an efficacy only of the order of 62% and is not effective against the South African variant. However, it is said to be 100% effective against severe illness.
The major churches have been complaining that the Oxford vaccine was originally based on foetal cells and advising parishioners to use other alternatives.
SII the Indian manufacturer is a major player. It is supposed to be producing a billion doses of Astrazenica and also a large delivery of Novovax.
The vaccine rollout in the USA has been far from smooth. 1000 members of the armed forces have been assigned to aid delivery. One third of troops in the USA offered the free vaccine refused it. Proportions refusing globally have been higher among certain populations such as ultra-traditional Jews. Mask enforcement has also promoted violence. Flight attendants and bus drivers have been harassed, beaten and attacked while trying to protect themselves and passengers from people without masks.
The major churches have been complaining that the Oxford vaccine was originally based on foetal cells and advising parishioners to use other alternatives.
SII the Indian manufacturer is a major player. It is supposed to be producing a billion doses of Astrazenica and also a large delivery of Novovax.
The vaccine rollout in the USA has been far from smooth. 1000 members of the armed forces have been assigned to aid delivery. One third of troops in the USA offered the free vaccine refused it. Proportions refusing globally have been higher among certain populations such as ultra-traditional Jews. Mask enforcement has also promoted violence. Flight attendants and bus drivers have been harassed, beaten and attacked while trying to protect themselves and passengers from people without masks.
Foreign nationals are driving across borders to get vaccinated. An attempt to give the vaccine to "companions" of old people in Massachusetts failed when young people began to offer cash to pose as companions and jump the queue, An innovative delivery clinic in Philadelphia closed after political in-fighting.
Economy
The JobSeeker payment, of $565 per fortnight for a single person, was boosted by the temporary ‘coronavirus supplement’ last year, as unemployment exploded through the pandemic. The extra payment, initially $550 per fortnight, tapered down gradually to $250 then $150 over the past year, and is set to revert to its original rate when the supplement expires on March 31. Australia’s unemployment rate sits at 6.6 per cent, and in December, 1.32 million people were on JobSeeker.
Odd spot
20 tonnes of dinosaur bones are sitting exposed in the desert at Niger, because excavation has been halted due to COVID.
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