Pandemicia coronavirus report #56
It has been almost a month since our last report - and a good deal has been happening
Epidemic
Global report
In the past month global cases have passed 150 million and global deaths have passed 3 million. On 28 April daily global cases passed 900,000 for the first time, though this level now seems to be plateauing. Daily deaths have yet to reach the January record of 17,300.
Most of the present "third wave" has been due to the extreme situation in India, which has now become the epicentre of the infection. Daily cases in India have substantially exceeded the US past record of 300,000 over the past few days to reach 400,000, though recorded daily deaths have yet to reach the US daily maximum of 4474.
Other countries with daily cases over 20,000 include Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Iran. (Sweden also briefly passed this level on 6 April). In a few places like Nepal, Japan and Malaysia, cases are rising, but by and large cases are falling in most countries. Japan has declared a third state of emergency as serious cases reach a new record, with Olympic athletes soon due to arrive.
Other countries with daily cases over 20,000 include Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Iran. (Sweden also briefly passed this level on 6 April). In a few places like Nepal, Japan and Malaysia, cases are rising, but by and large cases are falling in most countries. Japan has declared a third state of emergency as serious cases reach a new record, with Olympic athletes soon due to arrive.
India
At Pandemicia we have long expected India to have the world's worst epidemic, and that has now come to pass. India now has had almost 20 million confirmed cases and 3.2 million deaths. The now familiar COVID-overload picture of families scrambling for scarce medicines and oxygen while hospitals and morgues are overwhelmed is now present at its most extreme in India. The virus is officially killing one person every four minutes - and this toll is likely to be a huge undercount. Funeral pyres are lighting up the night sky in most cities.
The devastation has fuelled growing anger at Prime Minister Modi, who has been accused of excessive complacency following early success in restraining the virus. He overruled health experts to hold election rallies and festivals. The situation has been worsened by the Kumbh Mela festival season, when over a million people bathed in the Ganges on 13 April, after which huge crowds have continued to congregate. Despite the rallies, he has lost a key election in West Bengal.
The World Health Organisation says it is redeploying thousands of workers to India to fight the “really, truly astonishing” exponential growth in COVID-19 case numbers there. In fact the increase has been about 5.5% per day over 26 days, well below the 25% per day typically recorded in the early days of the pandemic, but numbers are so large in India that this rate of increase has very much more impact.
The lockdown of Delhi, a city of 19 million people, began on April 19 and has been extended twice.
Hotels and railway coaches have been converted to critical care facilities. The Indian Army has also been called in to assist. Countries are sending aid - the USA and Australia have provided PPE, test kits and ventilators., while France has sent eight large oxygen generating plants. Nearly 90% of oxygen is now being diverted for COVID, and as oxygen supplies are so critically depleted, India has approved the construction of 500 new oxygen plants.
The devastation has fuelled growing anger at Prime Minister Modi, who has been accused of excessive complacency following early success in restraining the virus. He overruled health experts to hold election rallies and festivals. The situation has been worsened by the Kumbh Mela festival season, when over a million people bathed in the Ganges on 13 April, after which huge crowds have continued to congregate. Despite the rallies, he has lost a key election in West Bengal.
The World Health Organisation says it is redeploying thousands of workers to India to fight the “really, truly astonishing” exponential growth in COVID-19 case numbers there. In fact the increase has been about 5.5% per day over 26 days, well below the 25% per day typically recorded in the early days of the pandemic, but numbers are so large in India that this rate of increase has very much more impact.
The lockdown of Delhi, a city of 19 million people, began on April 19 and has been extended twice.
Hotels and railway coaches have been converted to critical care facilities. The Indian Army has also been called in to assist. Countries are sending aid - the USA and Australia have provided PPE, test kits and ventilators., while France has sent eight large oxygen generating plants. Nearly 90% of oxygen is now being diverted for COVID, and as oxygen supplies are so critically depleted, India has approved the construction of 500 new oxygen plants.
A fire in an Indian hospital killed 16 patients and several staff, the latest of several deadly accidents in hospitals. Frustrated relatives of a deceased patient attacked staff with knives at one Delhi hospital.
Australia blocked all flights from India on April 27, until at least May 15. Empty flights from India and other countries have been landing in Australia for weeks, with no-one allowed to board. The White House also banned flights from India, but not for US residents.
Canada
The pandemic has worsened in Ontario, and critical patients have risen by 150% over the month. Patients have to be transported hundreds of miles to avoid overrunning hospitals. Children's hospitals are caring for adults, and all but emergency medical services have ceased. Emergency rooms are full of patients who are sicker and younger than in previous waves.
"the province made critical missteps and failed to learn the lessons of previous surges, including the need to act quickly and decisively before case numbers hit a level that could stretch a health-care system."
"the province made critical missteps and failed to learn the lessons of previous surges, including the need to act quickly and decisively before case numbers hit a level that could stretch a health-care system."
Response
Vaccine
About 2,000,000 doses have been delivered in Australia, but it may be 2022 before some Australians receive their first jab. As elsewhere there have been many inconsistencies and hesitancies in the rollout of the Astrazenica vaccine, though Australia ordered far more doses than were required. First, everyone in remote communities was eligible for the jab, while health workers waited in the cities. Second, controversially all Olympic performers were allowed to skip the queue and were given the vaccine while many vulnerable people waited for vaccination.
Then, controversy over a small number of blood clots discouraged many from receiving the Astrazenica vaccine, especially when the government declared that Pfizer was the preferred vaccine for under 50s. Doctors were inundated with patients pulling out of Astrazenica shots.
However, with over 50s now eligible for the vaccine from today, mass vaccination centres have been flooded with demand.
However, with over 50s now eligible for the vaccine from today, mass vaccination centres have been flooded with demand.
In the USA, about 37% of the population was fully vaccinated by 28 April, meeting the Biden targets. West Virginia is offering young people $100 to get vaccinated, in a bid to overcome 'vaccine hesitancy'.
The rollout of the one-shot Johnson and Johnson vaccine was discontinued in the USA for several weeks in mid April while blood clot claims were investigated. Now public enthusiasm for J&J is low - less than a quarter of unvaccinated want this vaccine. Canada also paused its J&J after discovering that it had been partly manufactured with materials from the embattled Emergent lab in Baltimore.
However the J&J vaccine has contributed to the "best week ever" of vaccinations in Ireland. Hospital numbers have plummeted. In Britain too, more than 15 million people are fully vaccinated.
The rollout of the one-shot Johnson and Johnson vaccine was discontinued in the USA for several weeks in mid April while blood clot claims were investigated. Now public enthusiasm for J&J is low - less than a quarter of unvaccinated want this vaccine. Canada also paused its J&J after discovering that it had been partly manufactured with materials from the embattled Emergent lab in Baltimore.
However the J&J vaccine has contributed to the "best week ever" of vaccinations in Ireland. Hospital numbers have plummeted. In Britain too, more than 15 million people are fully vaccinated.
The EU has struck a deal with Pfizer for 1.8 billion doses, the drugmaker's biggest deal yet.
The COVAX rollout to developing countries is far behind schedule. Only 38 million doses had been shipped by 11 April, well short of the expected 100 million, while only 0.2% of doses had been administered in low-income countries. India, the world's biggest vaccine producer, has stopped exporting Astrazenica vaccine and is keeping it for domestic use during the present crisis. Russia has sent 150,000 Sputnik V doses to the developing world and the USA has sent medical supplies. The DRC has returned 1.3 million doses of Astrazenica, saying they wont be able to dole them out before they expire in June.
On the positive side, Moderna has offered 34 million doses to the program this year, ultimately providing up to 500 million starting 2022. Sweden has donated 1 million doses of Astrazenica, making it the second EU nation after France to contribute to teh global initiative.
Other
Infections continue to leak from COVID hotels and cause breakouts - there have been more than a dozen leaks in six months. However, Commonwealth Ministers inexplicably believe the hotel quarantine system" is a great success".
The States are now taking quarantine seriously as medical experts continue to denigrate the existing situation as untenable. Victoria has started a planning procedure for a purpose-built 3000 bed centre with detached cabins north of the airport at Mickleham, but wants the Commonwealth to pay. This is more than a year too late: by comparison, South Korea already had completed purpose built facilities by March of 2020, not long after the outbreak started.
A few cases from the Mercure Hotel caused a snap lockdown in Perth, but the potential outbreak was rapidly extinguished. There was a brief scare in Victoria when one exposed man arrived by plane. In response, Western Australia has halved its immigrant intake and has demanded the Commonwealth take over quarantine arrangements, but this has been refused although quarantine is a Commonwealth responsibility in the Constitution. The WA Premier Mr McGowan also criticised Canberra for allowing people to leave Australia to visit high-risk countries and then return. Following several flights from India in mid April from which a total of 47 passengers were found to be infected, authorities became concerned that quarantine facilities would be overwhelmed. Over half of those in hotel quarantine are now from India. The Commonwealth has banned 9000 Australian residents from returning from India for several weeks, and has actually criminalised attempts to do so, claiming this was 'under medical advice' while citing a 'double mutant' strain. This raises questions in international law - and is a reminder of the the discriminatory situation in early 2020 where returnees to Australia from China were sent to Christmas Island, while returnees from Europe and the USA were allowed to bring COVID freely for nearly a month. Since that time, the government has not stopped American arrivals. When many countries slapped a ban on British arrivals in December, Australia did not. The government is denying any racist implications.
Case counts of non-COVID respiratory diseases throughout the world have been far below normal due to social distancing - but some experts have said this may not be good for children who need to develop immunities in their early years.
Cases are falling throughout the USA as summer approaches, and many restrictions have been relaxed, though masks are still required on mass transport. Overseas travel restrictions are lifting (although the State Department has put out an expanded list of 115 countries to which US citizens should not travel). Even cruises may resume in June.
Hong Kong has outlined plans for compulsory vaccination of foreign domestic workers, mostly from Philippines and Indonesia.
Infections continue to leak from COVID hotels and cause breakouts - there have been more than a dozen leaks in six months. However, Commonwealth Ministers inexplicably believe the hotel quarantine system" is a great success".
Case counts of non-COVID respiratory diseases throughout the world have been far below normal due to social distancing - but some experts have said this may not be good for children who need to develop immunities in their early years.
Cases are falling throughout the USA as summer approaches, and many restrictions have been relaxed, though masks are still required on mass transport. Overseas travel restrictions are lifting (although the State Department has put out an expanded list of 115 countries to which US citizens should not travel). Even cruises may resume in June.
Hong Kong has outlined plans for compulsory vaccination of foreign domestic workers, mostly from Philippines and Indonesia.
Geopolitical
Australia has not supported an Indian and South African proposal at the World Trade Organization that seeks to waive some intellectual property rights on COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics and other medical products.
Known as the "TRIPS waiver", since it seeks to adjust terms of the agreement on Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), the proposal is backed by more than 100 mostly developing countries. A small number of countries are stonewalling the proposal, including the United States, the EU and the UK. The Biden administration is divided on the question of waiving patents.
Australian scientists and Nobel Laureates Peter Doherty and Elizabeth Blackburn recently joined the chorus demanding support for a TRIPS waiver, echoing former world leaders, US politicians, the head of the World Health Organization, faith leaders like Pope Francis, and hundreds of civil society organisations from around the world.
Eleven Syrian crew of a livestock ship docked in Townsville are refusing to reboard and are seeking asylum, and a twelfth crew member is on the run.
Economy
Various academic papers forecast a major crash or depression resulting from the epidemic - but despite rolling unemployment, the pandemic may ultimately lead to a better business environment. The flexibility of governments in providing monetary stimulus and seeking economic recovery, coupled with substantial cost savings to employers and accelerated adoption of online technologies, may result in increased productivity, though increased inequality will limit consumer spending in the longer term.
In Australia, a 30% stock market crash in March 2020 has slowly been recovered and the market is now above the levels of 2019. In the USA, the market is 16% higher than in 2019. Amazon stock, for example, was sitting at about double the 2019 level by August due to the massive surge in online sales, and has held that level.
Australian unemployment surged from about 5% in 2019 to about 7.5% in mid 2020, but has now fallen to 5.6%. Not since the mid 1980s have the Australian government and Reserve Bank sought to improve the unemployment situation, instead concentrating on keeping inflation low. Now they are proposing to reduce unemployment below 5%, something that has not occurred since before the GFC. In the USA, unemployment rose above 15% but now has fallen to 6% despite the ongoing epidemic there.
Australia's housing market median prices have hit a new record of $900,000, fuelled by government incentives and cheap finance. The average home deposit is now $107,000, keeping most first home buyers out of the market. Prices have grown at 5.8% in the March quarter, the fastest rate in 18 years.
However loans to investors are much lower than five years ago, as they stay out of the market. The price gain is only in line with inflation from a few years ago, and the 'hot' market may be out of steam.
Despite spending hundreds of billions of dollars on economic remediation, Australia's interest payments have actually fallen because of extreme low interest rates in the current environment. It has been claimed that $2 out of every $3 spent on unemployment benefits by the government is clawed back, since it is all spent. In the forthcoming budget, government revenues are expected to be $21 billion higher than anticipated in December because of rapid recovery, and consumer spending during the very generous Jobkeeper.period, when many people received more income for not working than they had done while working.
In other countries the economy is not faring so well. GDP fell by 0.6% in Europe in the March quarter, following the big third COVID wave and slow vaccine distribution.
In the USA the use of crowdfunding sites has swelled as people financially hurt by the pandemic seek donations to help with rent, bills and food.
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