Pandemicia coronavirus report #57
Epidemic
Global report
Globally, confirmed cases are at about 165 million, and official deaths are approaching 3.5 million. The centres of infection remain in India and Nepal. As has occurred extensively in India, Nepali hospitals have run out of beds and oxygen.
There has been an alarming spread of the virus in crowded Rohingya refugee camps in BanglaDesh, and authorities have imposed a lockdown. All five camps are completely closed.
Infections in Argentina have hit the highest caseload so far at over 20,000 per day, so that the government has issued a strict lockdown, and Chile is similar.
Other countries at risk include places in SE Asia where there has been minimal exposure so far, and where there is little inoculation taking place.
Seychelles, the "world's most vaccinated country" is reporting a very high spike in cases. Over 50% of the population are inoculated with Sinopharm. As with most islands, deaths are very low.
India
Further reports of the seriousness of the Indian situation are emerging: Hospital beds now have waiting lists. Each one has as many as 75 patients waiting for it. That has been the reality for the past two or three weeks all across India. And there’s a massive shortage of oxygen. Hospitals all over the country are crying out for oxygen. Beds with ventilators are a distant dream.
Only a small number of those who are infected can even get into a hospital. There’s no room for them. Even those who are very sick are waiting outside, they’re in ambulances, they’re on the street, or they’re dying at home.
This second wave is different from the first. People are getting sicker faster and once they reach hospital it’s too late.
New cases in India have fallen off by 30% since 6 May, but deaths (which follow cases by several weeks) are now peaking at over 4500 per day, which is a record, higher than the US or Brazil maxima. As well, evidence of very substantial undercounting of deaths is appearing, despite the record results. In the city of Rajkot, only 12 official deaths were recorded but obituaries for 240 were published.
The performance of central government has fallen away in the current crisis - something we saw in the USA during the peak epidemic. Very many states and cities in India have imposed lockdowns, but there is no national lockdown as there was in the first wave. Unfortunately the rate of vaccination in India has halved in recent weeks.
A new variant identified in India is regarded as being of "international concern", possibly spreading faster. 'Black fungus', a natural infection known as mucormycosis that affects people with damaged immune systems, is also on the rise. About 200 people have contracted the condition in Maharashtra state and eight have died. It may be associated with the use of steroids in hospitals. Another common fungal lung infection, aspergillus, is also raising concerns of comorbidity.
The performance of central government has fallen away in the current crisis - something we saw in the USA during the peak epidemic. Very many states and cities in India have imposed lockdowns, but there is no national lockdown as there was in the first wave. Unfortunately the rate of vaccination in India has halved in recent weeks.
A new variant identified in India is regarded as being of "international concern", possibly spreading faster. 'Black fungus', a natural infection known as mucormycosis that affects people with damaged immune systems, is also on the rise. About 200 people have contracted the condition in Maharashtra state and eight have died. It may be associated with the use of steroids in hospitals. Another common fungal lung infection, aspergillus, is also raising concerns of comorbidity.
Vaccine
China actually produced the first vaccine in June 2020, Sinopharm, but the testing did not meet Western norms and was not well authenticated, so it has never been approved. However, the two Chinese vaccines have already been given to hundreds of millions of people in China and countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. The WHO has finally approved it "for emergency use".
The vaccine is of the older style that uses the inactivated whole virus, and thus promotes immunity to the whole COVID structure and not just the spike proteins. A similar French vaccine nearing approval, valneva, is being touted as "variant-proof" since it is not deflected by a modified spike, which has distinguished the new more infectious variants. These vaccines may provide protection for longer against more virus proteins than just the spike.
Only about half the population are agreeing to vaccination in most countries, short of "herd immunity". As well, infection is possible after immunisation. About 30% in Australia have said they will not take the vaccine. Frequent press reports of clotting are contributing, though there have only been a few cases and one death.
In Britain about 50 million shots have been given out and 30% have had both shots.
The EU will discontinue its contract with Astrazenica after Pfizer has shown itself more able to meet contractual obligations. In Australia also, Pfizer is being issued to under-50s.
The vaccine is of the older style that uses the inactivated whole virus, and thus promotes immunity to the whole COVID structure and not just the spike proteins. A similar French vaccine nearing approval, valneva, is being touted as "variant-proof" since it is not deflected by a modified spike, which has distinguished the new more infectious variants. These vaccines may provide protection for longer against more virus proteins than just the spike.
Only about half the population are agreeing to vaccination in most countries, short of "herd immunity". As well, infection is possible after immunisation. About 30% in Australia have said they will not take the vaccine. Frequent press reports of clotting are contributing, though there have only been a few cases and one death.
In Britain about 50 million shots have been given out and 30% have had both shots.
Other
An extreme lockdown in Cambodia has left some residents desperate . People are unable to go out in "red" areas even for food, and police officers are beating people who break the regulations with sticks.
Mask wearing was re-established indoors in Sydney on May 6, following a community case linked to a returned US traveller. An infected couple travelled to many venues before being detected.
The Rockefeller Foundation is building a pandemic prevention institute to guard against future epidemics, with a $1 billion investment toward COVID recovery
Very many US citizens continue to wear masks outdoors, though this is no longer mandated.
Transmission of the virus south across the US border into Mexico was very high, but this seems now to be reduced due to vaccination - a phenomenon known as the "Biden wall".
A Chinese-American civil rights group is suing American ex-president Donald Trump for using the term "China virus', leading to an uptick in racially motivated violence.
2020's lockdowns led to a 17% global decrease in carbon emissions and a 20% fall in nitrogen oxide levels, according to NASA. However the pollutants are returning,
Australian doctors have discovered a 'morning-after' style antiviral treatment that may dramatically cut the viral load in infected patients. It uses gene-silencing technology to stop the virus replicating.
Cases in Britain are hovering around 2,500 a day (from a high of 68,000 in January), while deaths are under 30 per day as they were in July through September 2020. As cases fall, pandemic restrictions are easing. Gatherings of six people are now permitted, and cafes etc can begin serving indoors.
The Rockefeller Foundation is building a pandemic prevention institute to guard against future epidemics, with a $1 billion investment toward COVID recovery
Very many US citizens continue to wear masks outdoors, though this is no longer mandated.
Transmission of the virus south across the US border into Mexico was very high, but this seems now to be reduced due to vaccination - a phenomenon known as the "Biden wall".
A Chinese-American civil rights group is suing American ex-president Donald Trump for using the term "China virus', leading to an uptick in racially motivated violence.
2020's lockdowns led to a 17% global decrease in carbon emissions and a 20% fall in nitrogen oxide levels, according to NASA. However the pollutants are returning,
Australian doctors have discovered a 'morning-after' style antiviral treatment that may dramatically cut the viral load in infected patients. It uses gene-silencing technology to stop the virus replicating.
Cases in Britain are hovering around 2,500 a day (from a high of 68,000 in January), while deaths are under 30 per day as they were in July through September 2020. As cases fall, pandemic restrictions are easing. Gatherings of six people are now permitted, and cafes etc can begin serving indoors.
Geopolitical
The Biden administration is now supporting the waiving of property rights on COVID vaccines and medications.
Australia's "tough guy" stance on India has backfired. Rescue flights for urgent cases were sent, but nearly half were refused boarding after testing by a laboratory that had its accreditation suspended. Later, many of the people refused seating turned out not to be infected. Special flights have had to be organised to pick up unaccompanied children.
It has turned out that although international travel is nominally banned except to New Zealand, over 65,000 people were allowed abroad In April, many for economic or compassionate reasons (attending funerals etc). This is odd as many Australians were not allowed to attend funerals during he local pandemic. About 50,000 people also arrived in Australia in April, about half from New Zealand.
Europe has agreed to open borders to non-EU vaccinated visitors for the summer season. Some commentators are pushing hard to re-open Australia's borders and take our chances. but the PM has said this will not happen before 2022.
The conservative press has claimed that China intended to 'weaponise coronavirus', continuing a familiar but discredited theme.
It has turned out that although international travel is nominally banned except to New Zealand, over 65,000 people were allowed abroad In April, many for economic or compassionate reasons (attending funerals etc). This is odd as many Australians were not allowed to attend funerals during he local pandemic. About 50,000 people also arrived in Australia in April, about half from New Zealand.
Europe has agreed to open borders to non-EU vaccinated visitors for the summer season. Some commentators are pushing hard to re-open Australia's borders and take our chances. but the PM has said this will not happen before 2022.
The conservative press has claimed that China intended to 'weaponise coronavirus', continuing a familiar but discredited theme.
Economy
USA
In the USA, more borrowers are behind on their mortgages than at any time since 2008. A third of Black-Hispanic mortgages are "in forbearance" (cannot be acted on because of covid protection) while 27% were delinquent
The Pfizer company is on track to have the best selling pharmaceutical product worldwide, with $26 billion in sales in 2021. At least nine people have become billionaires through vaccination profits - for instance Ugo Sahin, co-founder and CEO of BioNTech, and also the CEO of Moderna. The combined wealth of these people is more than enough to fully vaccinate all the people in low-income countries. However, Pfizer has pledged a further billion doses to low and middle income countries next year.
Restaurant traffic is roaring back, 46% higher than in pre-pandemic 2019. Some are comparing the period to the post- Spanish Flu Roaring '20s. Pent-up demand is running into supply constraints. In Australia too, retail sales are blooming across the board.
Births in the United States fell by 4% in 2020.
Australia
Only Australia and New Zealand have increased employment during the COVID period. Unemployment eased slightly in Australia during the last quarter, despite Jobkeeper ending, losing a further 30,800 jobs. In total, the Australian economy gained 33,800 full time jobs but lost 64,400 part time jobs in April.The major cities Sydney and Melbourne continued to lose population in the last quarter of 2020 (about 18,000 in total). Queensland and regional Victoria gained most of these emigrants.
The Federal Budget on May 11 stressed social welfare policies including aged care, mental health and women's economic and safety issues., while continuing a housing splurge that has continued to raise prices. During the pandemic, these are the issues that have been continually stressed by activists. The aged population and the female labour force have been strongly negatively impacted by COVID, underlining strategic long-term inadequacies in these sectors. It is expected, for example, that with an ageing population the aged care budget will soon exceed the national Medicare budget.
Australia's international airline Qantas has lost $16b since the start of the epidemic, and continues to lay off staff.
Rental car operators sold off so much of their stock in 2020 that there is now a shortage, with wait times and prices spiking.
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| Soldiers in Nepal remove a body from a crematorium |
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