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| Empty Melbourne, fourth lockdown June 2021 |
Pandemicia coronavirus report #58
Epidemic
Global report
Daily deaths have fallen about 40% and new cases over 50% since the maximum of the current global wave around 19 April. US deaths have fallen below 500 a day, but will pass 600,000 in the next few days. Daily cases in Brazil are still hovering around the 100,000 maximum.
India's official deaths are 367,000 but authorities say the real results could be five to ten times higher. India counts for one in three of deaths around the world, as cases move from the cities to small towns and the countryside where there is little medical response capacity.
Variants are now denoted by WHO in Greek letters to avoid racial slurs through naming after country first sighted. Now Alpha = UK), Beta = South Africa, Gamma = Brazil, Delta =India).
The delta variant, first found in India, has become the dominant variant in the UK and about 6% in the USA. In the UK, the delta variant is crowding out the (British) alpha variant. The difference between the variants in terms of transmissability is shown in the table, where not only is the delta version the most transmissable, it also requires two doses for effective vaccination.
Cases are rising somewhat in Britain because of the delta variant (but deaths have been very low since mid-May, below 20 per day). Cases are also rising somewhat in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, UAR/Saudi Arabia, Argentina/Chile/Uruguay in what is or may be a third wave for those countries.
Victoria has come out of its fourth lockdown (in Melbourne, an emergency lockdown lasted two weeks while tracing caught up with potential contacts. A number of cases arose after an infected man flew in from South Australia. Queensland is a common road escape for Victorians during the dreary Melbourne winter, and seven Victorians were caught trying to sneak to Queensland during lockdown, two of whom were infected.
After a month with no community transmission, cases spiked in Vietnam after 9 May. A new hybrid of the alpha and delta variants was found. The government has pledged to vaccinate every resident of Ho Chi Minh city. Deaths have lifted from a total of 47 to 58 in Vietnam, still one of the world's lowest figures.
Two people have tested positive on the first big cruise of 2021, by Celebrity Millennium Cruises. All crew members are fully vaccinated, as are 95% of the guests.
The delta variant, first found in India, has become the dominant variant in the UK and about 6% in the USA. In the UK, the delta variant is crowding out the (British) alpha variant. The difference between the variants in terms of transmissability is shown in the table, where not only is the delta version the most transmissable, it also requires two doses for effective vaccination.
Cases are rising somewhat in Britain because of the delta variant (but deaths have been very low since mid-May, below 20 per day). Cases are also rising somewhat in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, UAR/Saudi Arabia, Argentina/Chile/Uruguay in what is or may be a third wave for those countries.
Victoria has come out of its fourth lockdown (in Melbourne, an emergency lockdown lasted two weeks while tracing caught up with potential contacts. A number of cases arose after an infected man flew in from South Australia. Queensland is a common road escape for Victorians during the dreary Melbourne winter, and seven Victorians were caught trying to sneak to Queensland during lockdown, two of whom were infected.
After a month with no community transmission, cases spiked in Vietnam after 9 May. A new hybrid of the alpha and delta variants was found. The government has pledged to vaccinate every resident of Ho Chi Minh city. Deaths have lifted from a total of 47 to 58 in Vietnam, still one of the world's lowest figures.
Disease
Some patients report distorted vision and brain fog. Autopsies have shown clotting, but no virus in the brain.Two people have tested positive on the first big cruise of 2021, by Celebrity Millennium Cruises. All crew members are fully vaccinated, as are 95% of the guests.
Response
Vaccine
More than 2.3 billion doses of vaccine have been administered. Apart from the 800 million in China, this is almost entirely in Western countries. In Asian countries such as Taiwan and Korea, the government has not sponsored vaccination, so less than 1% of the population has been vaccinated.
The Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, the world's first, have been regarded as of limited effectiveness after an outbreak of cases in Bahrein. The same has occurred in Seychelles, Uruguay and Chile. There have been over 800 million vaccinations in China, but there is some doubt now as to their efficacy.
The Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, the world's first, have been regarded as of limited effectiveness after an outbreak of cases in Bahrein. The same has occurred in Seychelles, Uruguay and Chile. There have been over 800 million vaccinations in China, but there is some doubt now as to their efficacy.
In Australia, self-titled billionaire and political figure Clive Palmer has been criticised by the Therapeutic Goods Administration over his claims that the vaccine has caused "hundreds of deaths" and his advertisements have been pulled from TV. Only two deaths from clotting are known in Australia. Several hundred have died after vaccination but deaths have not been linked to the vaccine.
Because of Australia's slow rollout, several mass vaccination hubs have now opened in NSW.
The sudden outbreak in Victoria caused authorities to accelerate the rollout into aged care homes, as residents in nine established were still not inoculated at all. There was however no effort to inoculate private health care workers, who were merely told to seek their own vaccination. It appears there is no record of vaccinated age care workers in Australia, and fewer than 15% may be vaccinated.
Seven countries in the EU have started using the digital green certificate, which shows if someone has been fully vaccinated, recovered or tested in last 72 hours.
In the USA, 117 staff members at Houston's Methodist Hospital have sued over compulsory vaccinations, saying they don't want to be used as guinea pigs. This could be a general test case for compulsory vaccination requirements by employers.
In the USA, 117 staff members at Houston's Methodist Hospital have sued over compulsory vaccinations, saying they don't want to be used as guinea pigs. This could be a general test case for compulsory vaccination requirements by employers.
Other
Melbourne residents have completed their fourth lockdown, though a few cases are still being reported. There are fairly severe restrictions in place for another week. The Victorian government pledged $250m for affected businesses, but the Federal government said "enough help had been given to Victoria".
Victoria is finally to build a dedicated new quarantine facility, similar to the one in Howard Springs, Northern Territory. There have been 17 outbreaks from the notorious hotel quarantine facilities, which the government has insisted were a huge success (in fact 70% of Australia's cases have come from quarantine breaches and exemptions). It has taken 15 months to reach this decision, whereas Korea had several facilities constructed within a few weeks of the initial outbreak. The reason for the resistance appears to stem from the government's infatuation with private service delivery.
Victoria is finally to build a dedicated new quarantine facility, similar to the one in Howard Springs, Northern Territory. There have been 17 outbreaks from the notorious hotel quarantine facilities, which the government has insisted were a huge success (in fact 70% of Australia's cases have come from quarantine breaches and exemptions). It has taken 15 months to reach this decision, whereas Korea had several facilities constructed within a few weeks of the initial outbreak. The reason for the resistance appears to stem from the government's infatuation with private service delivery.
The COVIDSAFE app that was supposed to be a "ticket to a COVID-safe" Australia, has barely been used. It cost $8m and over $60m was spent advertising it.
Geopolitical
President Biden asked the US intelligence community on May 27 to redouble its efforts to look at the origin of the virus, reviving the hitherto discredited notion of a laboratory escape. The Australian newspaper reported on March 22 that several lab employees became ill in early November 2019 with COVID-like symptoms. Beijing allegedly ordered the destruction of all early samples which remains a possible area of suspicion. Much of the suspicion over China is due to ideological reasons (plus the general secretiveness of the government) rather than any hard evidence.
Australia has pledged to donate 12 million doses of vaccine to the rest of the world, joining many other wealthy countries who have promised assistance. These will not be available till 2022.
Australia has pledged to donate 12 million doses of vaccine to the rest of the world, joining many other wealthy countries who have promised assistance. These will not be available till 2022.
Economy
Many world cities have plunged down the annual Livability Ranking list because of Covid-19. ANZ, Japanese and Swiss cities now occupy all the top 10 places, partly because of low COVID impact.
House prices have risen rapidly in the USA as in many other countries, due to government interventions to save their economies in crisis. However, house prices are still far below Australian prices in most of the USA.
Average traffic movement in Australian capital cities compared with the Jan-Feb 2020 weekly average is shown in the Figure. Adelaide remains the highest, presently at 65%, but Melbourne has fallen below 20% because of its fourth lockdown, occurring over the past few weeks.
House prices have risen rapidly in the USA as in many other countries, due to government interventions to save their economies in crisis. However, house prices are still far below Australian prices in most of the USA.
Average traffic movement in Australian capital cities compared with the Jan-Feb 2020 weekly average is shown in the Figure. Adelaide remains the highest, presently at 65%, but Melbourne has fallen below 20% because of its fourth lockdown, occurring over the past few weeks.
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