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Pandemicia coronavirus report #64
A small note, largely occasioned by the USA passing our low-end target of 800,000 deaths.
Epidemic
Omicron
The pandemic rages on, following what epidemiologists regard as the 'standard' pattern. More people become immune, but the virus mutates and spreads all over again, with periodic crises for three years or so. This time the pandemic is subject to far more scrutiny that any past epidemic.
The new 'Omicron' variant emerging from South Africa is causing a media frenzy. Coronaviruses commonly recombine with material from other similar viruses, but this has not been observed with Covid-19 until Omicron, which appears to have material from one of the common cold coronaviruses among its 40 new mutations.
Omicron is highly transmissible, but it is appears to be less severe, with most patients recovering within three to five days. About 30% of those hospitalised are seriously ill, compared with 60% for other variants. If it confers immunity from other variants, then as Professor Doherty has pointed out, it might actually be a boon. Omicron was first spotted in November in South Africa, where there has been a massive rise in cases, moving from 1840 cases a week to a record 135,800 in only three weeks.
Omicron is highly transmissible, but it is appears to be less severe, with most patients recovering within three to five days. About 30% of those hospitalised are seriously ill, compared with 60% for other variants. If it confers immunity from other variants, then as Professor Doherty has pointed out, it might actually be a boon. Omicron was first spotted in November in South Africa, where there has been a massive rise in cases, moving from 1840 cases a week to a record 135,800 in only three weeks.
Omicron is now spreading rapidly almost everywhere, A third of new cases in Britain are already Omicron, and a new daily record in cases occurred there today of over 60,000. There has been a death in Britain, so the variant is certainly not completely benign. It seems that having had other variants of Covid-19 may not necessarily confer immunity.
Global report
Widespread vaccination has conferred moderate value at the global scale. The pandemic is proceeding in four-month waves. At each successive peak (January, late April, late August) deaths are lower than the preceding peak, suggesting that vaccination has lowered deaths by about 30% worldwide in 2021. While this is good, it is still the case that both infections and deaths are greater globally than at any time during the first nine months of the pandemic, when most of the extreme lockdowns and adjustments were taking place.
While vaccination does not appear to do much to reduce cases, it does reduce severe illness and death. In highly vaccinated countries the case death rate has fallen a great deal during 2021 - in Britain and Italy from over 2% to 0,6%, in Netherlands and Israel from below 1% to 0.4%.
The only highly vaccinated country where there has not been a substantial improvement in mortality in 2021 is the country with the greatest resistance to vaccination, the USA - case mortality is still 1.5% .
In the USA, deaths today have passed 800,000, which we called the low-end target last year. Over 200 million Americans are fully vaccinated, but 30% of the population choose to remain unvaccinated. Daily deaths are so far lower than the April 2020 or September 2021 peaks, but they have been rising very quickly as the cold weather arrives, to about 1275 a day. The National Guard has been asked to step in to help beleaguered health and age care workers in four states.
In the USA, deaths today have passed 800,000, which we called the low-end target last year. Over 200 million Americans are fully vaccinated, but 30% of the population choose to remain unvaccinated. Daily deaths are so far lower than the April 2020 or September 2021 peaks, but they have been rising very quickly as the cold weather arrives, to about 1275 a day. The National Guard has been asked to step in to help beleaguered health and age care workers in four states.
The European countries that escaped the extreme ravages of the disease in 2020 are doing poorly. Germany is topping out at over 400,000 new cases per month, its highest previous number were about 140,000 in December and April. The death rate is very much reduced though, down to about a half percent of cases.
The record outbreaks in Eastern and Central Europe (Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Austria) have topped out over the last few weeks. Case mortality rates have been near 5% (suggesting cases are under-reported).
China has a small outbreak of about 100 cases a day. The Chinese CDCP has published the very obvious fact using 'basic arithmetic' that if China were to abandon its 'zero tolerance policy', it would have the worst epidemic the world has seen - with up to 640,000 infections per day.
In Eastern Australia, with adult vaccination over 90%, cases have started to rise again as the States open up for summer. The arrival of Omega variant on South African flights is already massively accelerating cases in one State.
One must conclude that while vaccination does reduce the death rate, deaths will still reach an intolerable level. The only way to stop Covid-deaths entirely is to stop infections, and the only way to do that is with lockdowns and social distancing. However that train may already have left as more infectious variants keep appearing.
Added 16 December
New South Wales
The State of New South Wales abandoned its zero covid policy after the Delta variant arrived, although it was controlling the outbreak fairly well. As long as there are more than 100 cases a day, it is certain that removing restrictions will result in a new outbreak. The NSW figures provide some indication of what can happen when controls are released.
In NSW, confirmed cases fell steadily until the end of October, reaching a low of 135 a day. Cases then more or less plateaued through November, rising a little.
Asymptomatic Omega variants began to arrive on South Africa flights on 26 October. Cases rose quite sharply from 5 December, at about the same time that hospitalized cases bottomed out at 139. By 13 December cases began to rise at 50% a day, among the strongest rises ever recorded, and in three days (yesterday) new cases hit a new record of 1742.
The extremely rapid rise is due to a couple of really major superspreader events. A third of the 660 people who attended the Argyle House party in Newcastle were infected, spread by a teenager who was supposed to be in isolation. "In CCTV footage, there was almost no mask wearing and clearly people were huddled together very, very close"
The extremely rapid rise is due to a couple of really major superspreader events. A third of the 660 people who attended the Argyle House party in Newcastle were infected, spread by a teenager who was supposed to be in isolation. "In CCTV footage, there was almost no mask wearing and clearly people were huddled together very, very close"
The State Health Officer said the State may have 25,000 cases per day soon. This would take only till Christmas at the current rate of infection. Fortunately, Covid tends to run out of customers once daily infections become sufficiently high that the population dives for cover. However, the Omicron rally will be a major Christmas dampener.
Omega may be less deadly than previous variants - nevertheless one must expect hospitalisations and deaths also to escalate rapidly in a few weeks.
Response
In the 2021-22 annual budget for New South Wales, the State health response for Covid-19 was divided as
$340 million PPE
$340 million PPE
$261 million Vaccine distribution
$200 million Testing and tracing
$145 million Medical assistance, returning travellers
$30 million Enhanced cleaning
$80 million Elective surgery.
This $1.1 billion brings the total NSW Covid response to $4 billion so far.
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