Pandemicia coronavirus report #67

 

Covid treatment in Taiwan

Pandemicia coronavirus report #67

Epidemic

It is four months since the last report, showing how much the pandemic has dropped out of the public gaze, although infections still rage on. We anticipate we are coming to the end of this story, and there will be only a few more of these bulletins. 

Global report

There have been 538 million cases (more than the Spanish flu) and 6.3 million deaths (compared with 50 million deaths from Spanish flu and 20 million from WWI). Fortunately for the economy, mortality from coronavirus has never moved to any extent into the working population and has largely occurred among older and disabled people. It remains a mystery why it has affected developed countries so much more than developing countries - more than can be accounted for by age pyramid differences.

Cases are now 'only' 3.4 million a week, a few percent of where they were in February and less than the three 2021 peaks Due mostly to widespread vaccinations, deaths have dropped to "only" 10400 a week, the lowest since the pandemic began to ramp up in March 2020.

Cases are highest in the USA at 3 million a month, 2 million in Taiwan which avoided the main outbreaks, 1.1 million in Germany, and 850,000 in Australia, Spain and Brazil. These are now substantially under-reported, as many people are now self-testing and testing centres have closed.

The USA had a surge in cases in May due to a new Omicron variant BA.2.12.1. but it has steadied out. Large swaths of the country are still unvaccinated. 

Cases and deaths are at an all-time record in Taiwan - the only place where this is so. 

China has not been able to knock out Omicron despite continuing the zero-Covid policy with really stringent and wearying quarantines, but deaths are extraordinarily low, only 27 for the month according to official statistics. Residents in locked down areas report difficulties in obtaining food and medical supplies. 

The case mortality rate has settled down to about 0.3% in most places, but it is only 0.1% in Australia, presumably because of almost universal vaccination and better protection of vulnerable populations. This is however no reason for vulnerable groups to reduce vigilance as the weekly death rate in Australia is about 300, higher than at any time in 2020-21. 

It does appear to be the case that by allowing the disease to rage, the epidemic is playing out after 2.5 years, or at least is plodding along at a manageable level.

Response

Mandates

Almost everywhere has dropped most of their mandates, except on mass transport where masks are required. People on cruises need to be fully vaccinated. 

In Australia proof of vaccination is generally required and masks must be worn at hospitals and age care facilities, but not elsewhere.

During the surge in May in the USA, public schools and universities required masks to be worn indoors in some cities.

Treatments

The antiviral capsules Langevrio (Molnupiravir) from Merck and Paxlovid (Pfizer) were approved by the TGA in January. They have been found effective in treating mild and moderate Covid, and reduce virus shedding. Symptoms decrease within 24 hours. The USA is providing paxlovid widely, but warns of rebounding symptoms.

Long Covid

About one in five Covid patients experience one of more Long Covid symptoms, which may include heart and lung problems and psychiatric conditions.

Economy

With community mandates removed, the emphasis has moved onto trying to mop up the economic damage. The damage or restructuring has occurred through 

• closure of many facilities while key workers were ill, 
• lockdowns resulting in substantial savings for workers and some businesses through work-at-home
• loss of cheap international workers with borders closed
• closure of businesses related to hospitality, tourism and luxury retail
• overpayments to workers at home, draining national budgets and further increasing savings
• rise in house prices, through increased demand for larger periurban properties, quantitative easing and greater savings
• fall in exports and increase in local production

This has occurred into a global economic system that was already most peculiar. Interest rates were near zero in developed countries accompanied by quantitative easing, while they were 12% in developing countries with a capital shortage. Countries had become largely dependant on China for manufacturing. As global hostility toward China increased and the country maintained zero-Covid policies, some part of the China carry trade was lost.

As countries emerge from Covid, the first impact has been inflation at levels not seen since 1990, mostly through shortages of workers as immigration has been slow to resume, but also through supply-chain shortages and the loss of businesses. The Ukraine War has also put heavy pressure on oil prices. Inflation has shot up to over 8% pa in the USA. Central banks there and elsewhere are pushing up interest rates very rapidly, this being their only economic policy lever.

We will concentrate more effort on economic outcomes in the next issue

Airport delays

There have been massive delays in airports as travellers pile onto planes, with staff levels and facilities inadequate. In Australia there were really big holdups over the Queens Birthday Weekend. At Heathrow there has been a massive baggage pileup, with many flights cancelled. In Canada, half the flights have been delayed and 20% cancelled 

Delays have been going on since Easter, due to a lack of security staff. In early June in Britain, the situation at airports was described as  “complete chaos” with people were behaving “like animals”.