Pandemicia coronavirus report #68

 

Barricades in Shanghai

Pandemicia coronavirus report #68

Epidemic

The COVID epidemic rolls on, with no sign of weaker variants appearing. Vaccines are largely ineffective against spread of the disease, but they substantially reduce the viral load, lowering hospitalisations and deaths. The latest BA5 variant is very transmissible, some have said as strongly as measles, the world's most infectious viral disease (though this is doubtful). The "Centaurus variant" BA2.75 is currently expanding.

Global report

There have been a total 578 million reported cases globally, almost 10% more than in the last report. Cases are recorded at 7.7 million a week, nearly double that of a month ago and 35% higher than any weekly level in 2021. Global deaths are 16,400 a week, about half of the lowest weekly figures in 2020. Most attribute the 'low' death rate to vaccines, antivirals and improved care, but others point out that many of the most vulnerable individuals have probably already died.

There are now record numbers of cases in Japan (4 million a week). Deaths are 711 a week and rising very fast.

Cases and deaths in the USA are still the highest of any country, and have been steady since May,

China continues its zero-Covid policy. Wuhan, where the virus was recorded for the first time, is now under lockdown. The city of Henan is completely locked down. In the whole of China, only 352 new domestically transmitted COVID-19 infections were reported on Sunday, with 46 of these symptomatic and 306 unsymptomatic.

Western Europe has passed the top of a sixth wave, and so have other 'early epidemic' countries in Latin America. The waves have been of variable sizes and lengths, but occur approximately every six months as new variants come into play. Many people (about 70%) have had Covid multiple times. 

NSW Daily cases

The "follower" countries in East-Central Europe are just beginning this BA4-5 wave.

Official cases in Australia have been uniformly high ever since governments relaxed restrictions, and are now running at about 300,000 a week. This is considered to be about half the true figure, as many people are no longer reporting infections. 

Monthly COVID deaths, Australia

NSW had 177,013 active cases across the state, with 2,210 of those in hospital and 68 in intensive care. In the 24 hours to Friday afternoon, 46 people died with COVID-19. 

Australia-wide there are record numbers of deaths at 680 a week. The mortality rate is now something like 0.15% . People in the firing line are getting multiple infections. 

Some are predicting that the winter wave has topped out in the Eastern States, though it is a little early to say. It has been estimated that only 40% of positive RAT results are being notified, which makes forward projections difficult. 

Aged care

Countries continue to be unable (or unwilling to make the necessary expenditures) to keep Covid out of aged care facilities. In Australia, over 1000 facilities have outbreaks, with 6360 active resident cases and 3500 active staff cases.

Origins

A recent study alleges to show a strong spatial correlation between the earliest cases and the location of animals in Wuhan Market - though this has actually been known since the beginning. 

Another study shows two distinctive early strains in Wuhan, possibly from two separate zoonotic transmissions, pinpointing these events around 18 November 2019. Rhinolophus (Horseshoe) bats are the presumed host reservoir. However the study does not look at the distinct variation that appeared early in Europe.

Response

Treatments

Antiviral capsules Paxlovid (Pfizer) and Langevrio (Merck) are now available in Australia to everyone over 70 with mild-moderate Covid. Paxlovid is about twice as effective, reducing hospitalizations by two thirds, but is not often prescribed as it is contraindicated with a large number of other medications. 

"Paxlovid rebound" has now occurred for President Biden - who tested negative following a course of Paxlovid, but is once again positive.

Long Covid

In Australia, about 4% of Covid patients experience long-term symptoms. About 200 symptoms have been logged. Mostly they are fatigue, shortness of breath and what people are calling brain fog.

Economy

The extreme changes due to Covid are only now impacting on world economies. Countries like USA and Australia that depended on a steady intake of third-world immigrants, Chinese manufacturing and an inflow of doubtful foreign capital to keep inflation and wages low and house prices high are now struggling with rapid inflation. Inflation is running at about 6-7% already, without any compensatory wage increases, and many essentials have risen in price much faster than this. 

In Australia unemployment is running at 3.5%, the 'lowest rate for 48 years' - enough to spook economists who like to see a much more substantial 'reserve army of the unemployed'. However, "full employment" from 1946-75 was below 2%, and was actually a government target. 

Starting from August 2020, Australian housing prices shot through the roof, Government Covid stimulus payments passed straight into house prices, which rose by 30% in about 20 months, despite the limits on immigration. In response to interest-rate increases by the Reserve Bank, there has been a minor easingin prices. Much the same has been happening in US high-demand housing markets. 

Rental markets are extraordinarily tight, with rental vacancy rates of 1.6% in Sydney and Melbourne, and 0.5% in smaller cities ie almost no stock for rent. Local governments in smaller holiday-based urban areas where more than 10% of properties are sitting vacant have called for these to be rented.

China has been running on economic policies that would be regarded as 'suboptimal' in other countries. It has the chance to stimulate their economy as necessary by removing restrictions. The most important of these is the hukou system which effectively turns interregional immigrants into foreigners who cannot work or own land. Removing some of these restrictions could substantially improve internal demand.