12 April coronavirus daily report #9

12 April Pandemicia coronavirus daily report #9

Epidemic

Yesterday, we stated sadly USA was due to move into top place for deaths, and to half a million cases. It's already 5% higher on both. UK will pass China tomorrow on cases - it is three times higher on deaths already and will pass 10,000 deaths.

Bolsonaro, Brazil president

Russia moved into the explosive part of the pandemic five days ago. From here on, cases move up by 25% a day until stopped. It should reach 2000 cases per day for the first time tomorrow. Turkey is well ahead of this on 6000 new cases a day.  

Brazil's far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has been the only national leader who is a COVID denier for some time, urging Brazilians to leave home and go to work.  "creating a narrative that impedes the protection of people and life".
He has been isolated by his own ministers and the state governors, for

Disturbing trends

For the first time since Australia brought the epidemic under control in late March, I am pessimistic about the situation. What is happening in Italy and Spain indicates that it is much harder to curtail the epidemic by lockdown once it is firmly established than if it is in an earlier phase. 

NSW New Daily Cases

In fact it has become an open question whether a lockdown merely slows the epidemic for a month while countries make the grim preparations they should have made anyway.

The problem is that the number of new infections is falling away much slower than it rose. The first figure shows the progression in New South Wales as the "normal"case and what we would like; new cases increased by 25% a day until international restrictions and lockdown were placed; then fell at 13% a day, settling at around 40 cases a day, or a fifth of the maximum. This is a controlled epidemic.

In Italy and Spain however, this is not happening.
. 

Italy new daily cases

Spain new daily cases

 In Italy daily cases  increased at 18% for 24 days, but have fallen at only 4.5% for  17 days, down to a very high 45%, the level only four days before the top. Now new cases are rising again. It is possible all this is due to much larger numbers of tests being deployed - otherwise it would be due to leakage from the large numbers of cases confined without symptom in the lockdown - a disturbing sign the lockdown had failed.

In Spain it is much the same - cases rose at 25% for 19 days, then fell at 4%, plateauing off at about half the number of new cases pre-lockdown. Again, this is only a few days light of the maximum.
Into this, Spain is leaving lockdown tomorrow. Exactly what effect this will have will be watched carefully. As long as the total numbers infected or exposed are so far short of the 'herd immunity' level (which would be about 30 million in Spain) the virus can rapidly expand into what is 'fresh territory' of all the so far uninfected.

The governor of NewYork has echoed these concerns, saying that hospital admissions and deaths are plateauing at a very high level, and to lower this they will need far more tests than they presently have. 

Sources of infection in Australia.

The pie chart shows that only 10% of the COVID arrivals in Australia were from East Asia. Most were from Europe, from the cruise ship, and from America.

Equipment

Britain has now received the shipment impounded in Turkey and can expand testing. Still a third of all doctors report not having adequate protective equipment. Britain has so far managed to stay within capacity in hospitals, with 2500 ICU beds still remaining vacant.

Racism

In a preview of what might happen to other countries who have succeeded in stabilising the infection, and the complex interactions that will ensue, claims are being made in China that new cases are actually coming from abroad. There has been considerable interchange of personnel between China and Africa over recent years. An outbreak of COVID-19 among Nigerians linked to a restaurant in "Little Africa" in Guangzhou  has led Africans to be evicted from apartments and refused entry to hotels.

Education

With so many stranded at home, for the first time the Australian government will provide 20,000 new places in graduate diplomas and online courses, with price slashed by 50% or more.  The university sector is forecast to lose $4.6 billion in revenue.

Sport

With football matches discontinued, British soccer teams have had the market value of their top players downgraded by 20%.

Some belated news from 13 April

• The Ecuadorian president and cabinet members took 50% pay cuts to assist the economy
• An Israeli former Chief Rabbi died of COVID-19
• With 19 cases, Sudan banned all intercity passenger road transport  and introduced emergency laws (442 cases 1 May)
• Turkey's Interior Minister, a close ally of the PM,  resigned after a bungled total lockdown over 31 cities. Political resignations are rare in Turkey. 

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